2023: The future of CEE-China relations

9DASHLINE asked a select group of experts to assess Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries’ relations with China and how they expect them to evolve in 2023.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 16, 20239dashline, 2023: The future of CEE-China relations, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, VUK VUKSANOVIC, VALENTINA VENGUST, STEFAN VLADISAVLJEV, Central and Eastern European, CEE, China, 17+1, 14+1, Beijing, 2022, 2023, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, PRC-CEE, PRC-CEE relations, economic cooperation, security concerns, critical infrastructure, high-tech industry, backsliding, democratic backsliding, coercion, Lithuania, EU common market, 'no-limits' friendship, Moscow, 16+1 summit, Huo Yuzhen, Estonia, Latvia, Jiang Yu, US, united states, Taiwan, security guarantor, NATO, China-CEE format, Czech Republic, Greece, Chinese investments, security concern, security guarantees, Washington, Belarus, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Serbia, Hungary, Middle Corridor, Albania, North Macedonia, cooling-off period, joint statement, territorial integrity, sovereignty, diplomatic missions, Baltic countries, EU-China relations, China-CEE cooperation, cooperation mechanism, Sino-Serbian cooperation, territorial disputes, free trade agreement

Best of 2022: Understanding China

A central actor in regional and global politics and governance, scholars and analysts continue to debate all aspects of its domestic and foreign policies. Speculation remains rife about whether a collapse of its economy and government is imminent, or whether it will forcibly claim Taiwan.

East Asia9DLJanuary 5, 2023China, A litany of economic woes but in China politics rules, Jabin Jacob, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, COVID, Zero-COVID, BRI, Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese public databases leaks reveal growing dissatisfaction with authorities, Antonia Hmaidi, hacktivism, Hackers, Data, data leaks, See no evil hear no evil speak no evil — China’s reaction to the OHCHR’s Xinjiang report, David O'Brien, Uyghurs, OHCHR, Xinjiang, Genocide, What's happening on the China-Vietnam Border, Bill Hayton, Vietnam, Beijing, Lessons from Chinese Government Interference in Australia, James Laurenceson, Australia, Why factional politics might no longer matter in China, 9DL, 9DASHLINE, How China became the standard maker, Philip Lott, Aspen Institute, International Telecommunications Union, Sam Bresnick, Going global: Beijing’s bid to rewrite the rules of international security, Biden, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative

Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s inaugural strategic dialogue partner

Written by Ridvan Kilic

Ultimately, in order to secure its maritime boundary in the North Natuna Sea, Indonesia needs the support of like-minded strategic partners from the Quad more than ever.

Pacific9DLDecember 12, 20229DashLine, Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s Inaugural Strategic Dialogue Partner, Ridvan Kilic, Indonesia, Quad, strategic dialogue partner, non-alignment, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, Jakarta, US-China hegemonic competition, US, China, Southeast Asia, North Natuna Sea, North Natuna Sea Exclusive Economic Zone, Exclusive Economic Zone, EEZ, sovereignty, strategic partnership, Quad countries, rules-based maritime order, Indo-Pacific, alignment, inaugural strategic dialogue partner, Joko Widodo, President Joko Widodo, Widodo, Jokowi, Global Maritime Fulcrum, GMF, economic cooperation, trade partners, Beijing, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, infrastructure development, regional maritime power, Indonesian navy, maritime security, nine-dash line, South China Sea, SCS, non-claimant state, gas field, oil and gas drilling, Garuda Shield exercise, Indonesian National Armed Forces, Nusantara, Natuna archipelago, Makassar Strait, air force, navy capabilities, regional military capabilities, Washington, advanced fighter jets, Chinese assertiveness, Batam, Anthony Blinken, Retno Marsudi, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, freedom of navigation, japan, Natuna Islands, growing military build-up, military equipment and technology, bilateral relationship, india, Shared Vision of Maritime Cooperation, Andaman Sea, Sabang Deep Seaport, Aceh, Australia, Canberra, comprehensive strategic partnership, 2021 Australia-Indonesia security deal, Albanese Labor Government, Australia-Indonesia strategic partnership, Bahasa, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, military training, joint exercises, military hardware, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Indo-Pacific Partnership Maritime Domain Awareness, IPMDA

Why Sri Lanka’s default was not caused by China

Written by Marina Rudyak

Precisely because China is the world’s largest bilateral creditor, and many of its borrowers face the risk of excessive debt, it matters to get things right in the analysis of lender-borrower relations.

South Asia9DLNovember 21, 20229DashLine, Why Sri Lanka’s default was not caused by China, Marina Rudyak, Sri Lanka, IMF, International Monetary Fund, China, Debt trap, Debt Trap, debt trap diplomacy, Debt Trap Diplomacy, Foreign Debt, Chinese debt restructuring, debt-trap diplomacy, Hambantota Port, Hambantota, Hambantota debt-trap, Deborah Brautigam, Brahma Chellenay, geostrategic, China Merchants Holding, Reuters, Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake, Ravi Karunanayake, loans, foreign loans, Harvard, US State Department, Debtbook Diplomacy, 2018 US National Defence Strategy, economic coercion, US Vice President Mike Pence, Mike Pence, predatory lending, debt diplomacy, China Eximbank, international sovereign bonds (ISBs), international sovereign bonds, ISBs, BRI, Belt and Road, Belt and Road Initiative, Umesh Moramudali, Thilina Panduwawala, default, President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s civil war, global financial crisis of 2007-2008, global financial crisis, Rajapaksa government, Ranil Wickremesinghe, World Bank, Public and Public Guaranteed (PPG) debt, PPG, state-owned enterprises, social credit system, creditor, debitor, lender, borrower, India, Japan, G20 Common Framework, middle-income country, Covid-19

How China became the standard maker

Written by Philip Lott

The International Telecommunication Union presents a prime example of how China’s behaviour has changed the institutional dynamics from within and puts pressure on the liberal underpinnings of standardisation.

East Asia9DLOctober 26, 20229DashLine, Philip Lott, International Telecommunication Union, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, United States, US, China, Secretary-General, election, ITU, UN agency, Plenipotentiary Conference, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia, Rashid Ismailov, Houlin Zhao, EU, technical standardisation, internet governance, standardisation organisation, geopolitical competition, China’s ambitions, institutional dynamics, standardisation, global standard setting, standard setting, standards developing organisations, SDOs, technologies, standards, domestic standard, Wi-Fi, hybrid approach, partial convergence, Germany, 2017 Standardisation Law, China Standards 2035, regulatory environment, R&D spending, International Organization for Standardization, ISO, International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC, Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, memorandum of understanding, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Digital Silk Road, telecom, Huawei, 5G technology, internet architecture, US Federal Communications Commission, Lenovo, Qualcomm, Technologies for Network 2030, 6G, Tomas Lamanauskas

Western Indian Ocean: The missing piece in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Written by Rushali Saha

The Biden administration’s expansion of the geographic definition of the Indo-Pacific to include the entire Indian Ocean, while a positive first step, is merely a symbolic move unless complemented with concrete policy action.

Pacific9DLOctober 13, 20229DASHLINE, Western Indian Ocean: The missing piece in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, RUSHALI SAHA, Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Sub-Saharan Africa, White House, Biden, Department of Defense, Central Command, Africa, China, US, US-China, Indian Ocean, United States, Cocos Islands, Keeling Islands, Comoros Archipelago, Red Sea, East Africa, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Asia, Middle East, WIO, energy, Washington, USPACOM, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Quad, South Asia, Afghanistan, Gulf Cooperation Council, Djibouti, hydrocarbons, People Liberation Army Navy, Camp Lemonnier, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Madagascar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, FOIP, France, India, SAGAR, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, IPEF, Maritime Doctrine, Mozambique, Seychelles, Iran, Indian Ocean Commission, UAE, African Union, blue economy, Sagarmala Project, Delhi, Uganda, New Delhi, Modi, Mauritius, Vanilla Islands, Saint-Denis, Reunion Island, Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund, Trump, Sri Lanka, Israel, National Security Strategy, Diplomat Risk Intelligence, South Asian Voices

A litany of economic woes but in China politics rules

Written by Jabin T. Jacob

In the run-up to the 20th Party Congress later this year, the CCP under General Secretary Xi can be expected to engage ever more seriously with China’s economic problems.

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis: A new regime, politics at play?

Written by Neha Gupta and Guido Cozzi

It is often observed that the dismal performance of a country on socio-economic-political indicators is indicative of the value extracting role of elites in that country and vice versa for the value contributing elites.

The rationale behind Beijing’s position on the war in Ukraine

Written by Wang Li

Beijing believes that even if Moscow’s reputation as a formidable military power has suffered a serious blow during its war in Ukraine it will be able to re-emerge as a stronger power in a short time.

In Conversation: Amish Mulmi on ‘All Roads Lead North’

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Amish Raj Mulmi to discuss his new book All Roads Lead North: China, Nepal and the Contest for the Himalayas.

Marcos Jr.’s Philippine foreign policy: What it means for the Indo-Pacific

Written by Joshua Bernard Espeña

It is unlikely that Manila will join Washington in balancing against Beijing — Marcos Jr has already made this clear. Neither will the country bandwagon with Beijing given domestic pressures driven by fears over creeping Chinese influence.

Pacific9DLMay 13, 2022Marcos Jr.’s Philippine foreign policy: What it means for the Indo-Pacific, Joshua Bernard Espeña, Philippines, China, United States, US, Bongbong, Marcos Jr, Indo-Pacific, South China Sea, Cold War, Filipino, Rodrigo Duterte, Manila, Washington, Philippinedisation, Solomon Islands, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan, Taiwan, Quad, Australia, AUKUS, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Build Back Better World, Beijing, 2016 arbitral ruling, Association of the Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, Code of Conduct, COC, ASEAN-China Code of Conduct, Chinese Coast Guard, International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, COLREGS, COVID-19, pandemic, Debt Trap, Sri Lanka, Hambantota Port, Ned Price, US State Department, Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, EDCA, People’s Liberation Army-Navy, International Development Security Cooperation, Rise of Philippinedization: Philippinedization

Thailand’s long-anticipated submarine deal hits yet another snag

Written by Zachary Abuza

Thailand’s submarine deal with China has been put on hold, not due to the public backlash, parliamentary scrutiny, or a lack of strategic rationale; the Gulf of Siam is too shallow for submarines to operate effectively. But since the military coup of 2014, the Thai military usually gets its way regardless of strategic rationale.

2022: Russia the other Pacific power

Even if Russia does not play a key role in the competition between the major powers of the Indo-Pacific right now, the country could become an indispensable partner in the future geopolitical constellations in this most significant geographical area.

Italy's 'non-strategy' in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Andrea Caligiuri

Italy’s ‘non-strategy’ in the Indo-Pacific is partly conditioned by the fact that Rome does not want an open confrontation with China. Rather, it seeks a pragmatic approach with Beijing.

The Belt and Road Initiative in China’s western frontier and Central Asia

Written by Zenel Garcia

The need for continued Chinese investment and market access ensures that Central Asian leaders will continue to relegate the question of Uyghur diasporas or the treatment of other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang to the periphery.

In Brief: FutureMap founder, Dr Parag Khanna

Chinese investment through the BRI is just part of the story, because if managed correctly, it is the first mover that unlocks greater investment from other powers and corporations, and leads to growth that ultimately helps countries pay their debts.

High ambitions but no teeth in China’s environmental guidelines for investing abroad

Written by Mirela Petkova

If China is to rightfully claim environmental leadership, the conduct of Chinese companies going abroad should be guided by stricter environmental domestic standards, rather than merely the one's host states provide.

Russia and Pakistan: Strange partnership

Written by Vuk Vuksanovic

Pakistan needs partners among great and regional powers concerned about the fate of Afghanistan. Russia, on the other hand, had to strengthen its diplomatic and market ties with non-Western countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America as a result of the Ukraine Crisis and worsening relations with the West.