Germans may not be interested in war, but war is interested in them

Written by Jana C. von Dessien

Two decades of wallowing in the comforts of cheap Russian energy, open Chinese markets, and US security guarantees seem to have thoroughly corrupted the entire political class.

The AUKUS controversy: Security issues in US-Australia relations under Biden and beyond

Written by Derek McDougall

If the US cannot increase the rate at which it builds submarines, Australia could find itself without submarines once the existing six Collins-class submarines can no longer be used.

Pacific9DLMay 9, 20249dashline, Derek McDougall, The AUKUS controversy: Security issues in US-Australia relations under Biden and beyond, AUKUS, United States, Australia, United Kingdom, Biden, Trump, Navy, submarines

Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities

Written by Dr Rafal Ulatowski

Germany is too weak militarily to change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Its military presence satisfies the expectations of the regional middle powers and of the United States while having only a minor adverse impact on Germany’s relations with China.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 10, 20249DashLine, Germany’s Indo-Pacific aspirations and realities, Rafal Ulatowski, Germany, Indo-Pacific, European Union, EU, bilateral, regional powers, liberal international order, open markets, China, trade, Chinese-German cooperation, intergovernmental consultations, German-Chinese partnership, Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific, National Security Strategy, Strategy on China, German Navy, German frigate Bayern, German National Security Strategy, German Strategy on China, US-Chinese competition, diversifying, diversification, democratic values, German-Chinese relations, comprehensive strategic partnership, Federation of German Industries (BDI), partner, competitor, Italy, important partner, systemic rival, military presence, Bayern frigate, Operation Rapid Pacific, Australia, symbolic, middle powers, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore, democracies, shared values, resilient supply chains, German arms exports, investments, export, Taiwan, Hing Kong, Hong Kong, malaysia, Thailand, FDI, Luxembourg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, de-risking, decoupling, Alliance 90/The Greens, Social Democrats, German companies, sensitive technologies, United Kingdom, Bundeswehr, Zeitenwende, NATO, defence spending, 2 per cent goal, Berlin, United States, confrontation, strategic interests, SIPRI, Russia-Ukrainian war, dependence, great powers, COVID-19 pandemic

Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS

Written by Julian Neuweiler and Patrick Triglavcanin

Continuing efforts in transparency are also important. A formal mechanism for communication should be established between AUKUS members and Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia, In Focus9DLNovember 1, 2023Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS, 9DashLine, Julian Neuweiler, Patrick Trigclavcanin, AUKUS, US, UK, Australia, Philippines, Indonesia, diplomacy, military, Southeast Asia, next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), foreign policy, national security, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, nuclear arms race, 9th ASEAN-United States (US) Summit, peace, ASEAN centrality, ASEAN, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Philippines-Australia Ministerial Meeting (PAMM), counterbalance, President Joko Widodo, partners, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, San Diego, SSN-AUKUS, arms race, power projection, communication, transparency, Australia-Indonesia ‘2+2’ meeting, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Singapore, Integrated Review’s 2023 ‘refresh’, Integrated Review, middle-ground powers, confidence building, United Kingdom, Russia’s war against Ukraine, South China Sea, international norms, geopolitical, geopolitics, geopolitical calculus, international order, United Nations Charter, G20, Manila, maritime militia, Philippine Navy, Coast Guard, fishermen, Scarborough Shoal, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Canberra, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Quad

NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral

The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Mathieu Droin

The brewing Indo-Pacific architecture is inherently “flexilateral” due to the breadth of factors and the rapidly changing stakes that determine its many actors’ positions.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJune 28, 20239DashLine, The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific, Mathieu Droin, European Union, Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, AUKUS, transatlantic, minilateral, Indo-Pacific, Japan, China, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), India, strategy, flexilateral, Thucydides trap, geoeconomic, trade, geostrategic, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, clubs, biannual EU-US high-level consultations on the Indo-Pacific, Washington, France, overseas territories, Indian Ocean, Pacific, strategic autonomy, puissance d’equilibres, power of balances, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Pacific Islands, Netherlands, Germany, Council of the EU, EU presidency, Italy, Rome, Tempest programme, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Raisina Dialogue, Denmark, maritime domain, Hungary, Chinese coercion, Lithuania, dependence, Berlin, Beijing, German Indo-Pacific strategy, Central and Eastern Europe, Xi, Putin, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia-China axis, NATO, EU Indo-Pacific forum, South Korea, New Zealand, President Macron, GLOBSEC Forum, North Macedonia, Sweden, Djibouti, Laos, transatlantic Quad, Anglo-Saxons, aspiring powers, rising powers, strategic autonomists, GCAP, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, freedom to manoeuvre, Quaderateral Security Dialogue, Quad, EU, UK, Thucydides, Giorgia Meloni, Ukraine, Czech, Nato, GLOBSEC, NZ, UAE, CSIC, CSIS

Eyes on Asia: Shangri-La Security Dialogue's role in managing great power rivalry

Written by Hunter Marston

For Singapore, the advantages are inordinate. As a tiny island nation, the annual conference allows the country to exercise a degree of influence and statecraft on the world stage that its material resources and capacity might not otherwise grant it.

AUKUS and Australia’s domestic opinion

Written by Sian Troath

Whether people oppose the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, have mixed views, or support it, they often do ground their assessments in strategic analysis and a consideration of other priorities.

’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin

Written by Dr Kerry Brown

In this context, the one positive Russia offers to China is that it does not belong to the Western bloc. Xi’s seemingly warm words to Putin are an acknowledgement that his enemy’s enemy is his friend.

Editor's Picks9DLMay 11, 20239DashLine, ’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin, Kerry Brown, President Xi Jinping, China, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Moscow, geopolitics, Chinese elite, America, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sino-Russian, China-Russia alignment, Beijing, autocratic norm, democracy, common destiny, Community of Common Destiny, community of common destiny for mankind, win-win, Belt and Road Initiative, Qing, Republican, People’s Republic, Winston Churchill, Second World War, Great Powers, UK, middle-income, sense of destiny, Western hegemony, multipolarity, Western bloc, NATO, Soviet, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, peace plan, nuclear weapons, ‘WE’RE GOING THROUGH CHANGES’ – WHAT XI MEANT WHEN HE SPOKE TO PUTIN, Xi Jinping, Putin, Ukraine, Nuclear, United Kingdom, US, WW2, WWII, Lau China Institute, Kings College London, Centro Studi Sulla Cina Contemporanea Summer School

France in the Indo-Pacific: Not so ambivalent after all

Written by Gesine Weber

If France wants to seize the opportunity for asserting leadership among Europeans on the Indo-Pacific, it will also be up to the President to preach what the country already practices.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMay 10, 20239dashline, France in the Indo-Pacific: not so ambivalent after all, Gesine Weber, French President Emmanuel Macron, US-China competition, France, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific, EU, EU member states, US, allies, Paris, Exclusive Economic Zone, French overseas territories, trade, EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Council of the EU, Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Stockholm, Russia's war, Russia’s invasion, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Gulf, South Africa, East Africa, India, Japan, Australia, AUKUS, submarine deal, anglophone club, transatlantic, Washington, puissance d’équilibres, foreign policy, middle power, logic of blocs, third way, US-China competition for hegemony, Strait of Taiwan, connectivity, defence, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, de-risking, hawkish, Multilateralism, flexible engagement, Revue Stratégique (Strategic Review), Antoine Bondaz, puissance d’initiatives, minilateralism, La Perouse, United Kingdom, London, Franco-British summit, geopolitical

Penny Wong: Rebuilding world orders with Australian multiculturalism

Written by Xuyang Dong

Australia is being remade into an active and helpful middle power in its region with its own agency, constructively and strategically navigating its presence in the geopolitics of growing China-US rivalry.

Pacific9DLMay 2, 20239DashLine, Penny Wong: Rebuilding world orders with Australian multiculturalism, Xuyang Dong, Penny Wong, Australia, multiculturalism, Anthony Albanese, Albanese Labor Government, Labor Party, Australian Labor Party, feminism, diversity, Malaysia, elite politics, representation, White Australia Policy, immigration, China, foreign policy, renewable energy, ‘shoe-leather' diplomacy, Southeast Asia, Pacific, First Nations, colonialism, First Nation foreign policy, British colonial history, balancing power, Liberal-National Coalition, United States, backyard, national interests, security pact, Solomon Islands, foreign aid, Beijing-Honiara security agreement, Morrison government, climate change, Blue Pacific, United Kingdom, British colonialism, Justin Mohamed, Ambassador for First Nations People, Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islanders, Hamish Fejo, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), indigenous peoples, Hugh White, empathy, cross-cultural, new world order, globalisation, middle power, geopolitics, China-US rivalry

Reflecting on Ardern: Don't confuse going slow with no change

Written by Dr Lucas Knotter

Now that Ardern has been replaced by Chris Hipkins as Aotearoa prime minister, it is unclear whether New Zealand’s foreign policy will change substantially.

Power Politics9DLMarch 28, 20239DashLine, Lucas Knotter, Reflecting on Ardern: confusing slow with no change, New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, 2020 New Zealand parliamentary elections, Jacinda Ardern’s premiership, Aotearoa, Aotearoa politics, general election in October 2023, radical incrementalism, NZ Labour Party, February 2022 Parliament Lawn protest, COVID-19, COVID-19 restrictions, anti-government sentiment, right-wing MPs, female prime minister, feminism, sexism, misogyny, New Zealand National Party, water management centralisation, New Zealand's international status, small state, minor power, Nicholas Ross Smith, Aotearoa’s ‘soft power’, soft power, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, Vogue, celebrity, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, New Zealand’s foreign policy, US, China, alignment, middle ground, Indo-Pacific, Aotearoa’s ‘constructive ambiguity’, interlocutor, Pacific Islands, indigenous foreign policy, Anna Powles, Solomons-China security agreement, Chris Hipkins, Managed Isolation and Quarantine, crime, inequality, wealth disparities, climate policy, Emissions Reduction Plan, National Adaptation Plan, Max Rashbrooke, Helen Clark, John Key, both-sidesing, Zero Carbon Act, United Kingdom, United Nations, Reflecting on Ardern: Don't confuse going slow with no change

The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition

Written by Dante Schulz

The Taliban’s inability to address the security and economic concerns of its partners will only exacerbate the glaring issues plaguing Afghanistan.

Faultlines9DLMarch 21, 20239DashLine, The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition, Dante Schulz, Taliban, Afghan Acting Minister of Interior Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, European Union, Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance, diplomacy, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, official recognition, Taliban regime, human rights, terrorist groups, terrorism, Kabul, Afghan Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi, Turkey, Antalya Diplomacy Forum, China, Tunxi Neighbouring Countries Meeting, Tashkent International Conference, Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, NATO, India, embassy, national security, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company, investment, Afghanistan’s Amu Darya river basin, Chinese-Taliban economic partnership, United Nations, ban women from attending universities, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, ban on female aid workers, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Turkmen, Uzbeks, inclusive government, displacement, ethnic minorities, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Islamabad, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Obaid ur Rehman Nizamani, global caliphate, Chinese Ambassador Wang Yu, ceasefire

2023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons

With Australian elections ushering in a change of government and Aotearoa New Zealand’s planned parliamentary elections this year, 9DASHLINE sought the views of several experts on the state of both nations’ foreign and defence policies.

Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20232023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons, 9dashline, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, New Zealand, China, United States, Australian elections, parliamentary elections, foreign and defence policies, geopolitics, NICHOLAS ROSS SMITH, Jacinda Ardern, trading partner, security relationship, middle-ground position, Wang Yi, NZ Labour Party, Wellington, National party, Christopher Luxon, putative Indo-Pacific ‘hedging’ strategy, MELISSA CONLEY TYLER, import restrictions, Prime Minister Albanese, President Xi, G20 Summit, China’s economic coercion, climate change policies, clean energy, Pacific Island countries, 2026 UN Conference of the Parties, JASON YOUNG, supply chain resilience, social cohesion, economic resilience, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, Japan, United Kingdom, Partners in the Blue Pacific, President Biden, APEC Summit, China’s Covid restrictions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s activities in the South China Sea, liberal-democratic Western bloc, Moscow, Beijing, geopolitical shatterbelt, Taiwan, Canberra, Tokyo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Nanaia Mahuta, Free Trade Agreements (FTA), European Union, trade diversification, anti-nuclear advocacy

The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan

Written by Reuben Steff and Martin Jirušek

Should war or a system of neo-Cold War style blocs emerge, it will be US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that form the new frontlines and that have the most to lose.

Pacific9DLNovember 23, 20229DashLine, Reuben Steff, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Martin Jirušek, Taiwan, US National Security Strategy, geopolitics, Europe, Indo-Pacific, super-order, security order, rules-based institutionalism, Moscow, China, USA, diplomacy, military, rebalancing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise, Cold War, ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, alliance, Washington, networked’ security architecture, minilateral, multilateral, defence, allies, National Defense Strategy, Beijing, zero-sum, tit-for-tat, AUKUS trilateral security pact, Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Australia, UK, United Kingdom, Japan, India, containment, trade war, microchips, blocs, Southeast Asia, South Pacific, Middle East, shatterbelts, nuclear proliferation, southeast asia, confidence building, Kyiv, Emmanuel Macron, peace, France, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Taipei, Pentagon, White House, de-escalation, Joe Biden, President Biden, ‘One China’ policy, NATO, Admiral Philip Davidson, US Congress, Admiral Mike Gilday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, invasion, Michael Beckley and, Hal Brands, peaking power trap, UN

In Conversation with Ali Wyne

This month we enjoy a fascinating conversation with Ali Wyne where we discuss his new book America's Great Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition.

Navigating Australia’s defence challenges

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler and Tom Barber

With a potential submarine capability gap, troubled procurement projects, and overall, a limited funding envelope in a deteriorating strategic environment, few would envy the Defence Minister’s job.

Chagos Islands and the struggle for Global Britain

Written by Catherine Craven

For Britain, maintaining control over Indian Ocean Territory remains fundamental to its foreign, trade and migration policy interests — but also to its allies.