The Navigator's September issue is out now

This month, we explore Sri Lanka’s historic presidential election and the UK’s decision to appoint a special envoy for negotiations on the Chagos Islands, both of which could have significant implications for the region.

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News9DLSeptember 27, 2024The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, Indo-Pacific, ASEAN, The Bridge, EPinASEAN, European Parliament in ASEAN, Chagos Islands, Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s potential political realignment

Written by Dr Neil DeVotta

Ultimately, given the dire economic and debt situation facing the island, the victorious candidate and his party will have little choice but to balance relations with major powers like India, China, and the United States.

Power Politics, South Asia9DLJuly 31, 20249DASHLINE, Sri Lanka’s potential political realignment, Neil DeVotta, Sri Lanka, Sri Lankan economy, presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, Rajapaksa family, Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism, majoritarian, fiscal stability, balance of payments crisis, United National Party, Ranil Wickremesinghe, taxes, austerity, IMF program, World Bank, food insecure, poverty, Central Bank, debt restructuring, multilateral, bilateral, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, corruption, ‘Ranil-Rajapaksa’ regime, dynasty, Sajith Premadasa, Samagi Jana Balawegaya, SJB, JVP, Janata Vimukthi Peramuna, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, UNP, IMF, SLPP, creditors, Marxist, insurgencies, ethnic, Sri Lankan Civil War, Sri Lanka’s civil war, human rights violations, Tamils, geopolitics, United States, Australia, Japan, pro-China, China, White Elephant, Chinese loans, Hambantota Port, Mattala International Airport, Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, multi-aligned foreign policy, multi-aligned, India, ethnocracy

Sri Lankan economy: Crisis, consolidation, and collaboration

Written by Soumya Bhowmick

Restructuring Sri Lanka’s debt, particularly with major creditors such as India and China, gives Colombo a certain amount of leverage in negotiations with the IMF and reflects shifting regional dynamics.

Sino-India rivalry for port dominance in Bangladesh

Written by Mae Chow and Shakthi De Silva

Ultimately, Bangladesh's ability to maintain constructive engagements with China and India will not only shape its own future trajectory but also contribute significantly to the stability and prosperity of the broader Indo-Pacific region.

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China-Maldives military agreement: an upgrade to the bilateral relationship

Written by Lea Thome

The Maldives finds itself caught in a tug-of-war between India and China. However, Malé under Muizzu’s presidency has shown increasing openness towards China as it strives to navigate the balance between the two countries and maintain its own sovereignty.

BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future

Written by Kelly Antoinette Khyriem

As criticisms propel the initiative towards a BRI 2.0, if China actively addresses and mitigates risks associated with its projects by enhancing transparency and accountability frameworks, it has the potential to outpace the emerging alternatives that are challenging the BRI.

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Manila is shopping, not re-aligning

Written by Drake Long

Rather than celebrating each time a country publicly cancels a Chinese project, the US, Australia, the EU, and other nations competing for influence at the expense of Beijing should keep in mind the wider picture — Manila and other capitals like it are shopping around for alternatives.

Southeast Asia9DLDecember 7, 20239dashline, Drake Long, Manila is Shopping, Not Re-Aligning, Philippines, Manila, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Subic-Clark freight railway, Calamba-Bicol commuter rail line, inter-city Mindanao railway, Beijing’s influence, China Global Investment tracker, additional memorandum of understanding, Ferdinand Marcos, Marcos’ inauguration, Vanautu, cambodia, indonesia, vietnam, Laos, Sri Lanka, high-profile Chinese investment, Beijing, frontier market, Asian Development Bank, ASEAN, Mindanao, Brunei, Malaysia, conflict zone, Subic bay, state-owned enterprises, Loan repayments, debt-soaked Southeast Asian capitals, Chinese company, Western democracy, US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, maritime statecraft, EU, Australia, Chinese project, Beijing camp, investment deficit, Economic growth, Manila is shopping, not re-aligning, Manila is shopping not re-aligning

BIMSTEC revival: A compelling alternative to the BRI in the Bay of Bengal

Written by Eve Register

It will be important for BIMSTEC to learn from the mistakes of the BRI if it is to work as a viable alternative for countries in the Bay of Bengal region.

In Conversation with Kate Cronin-Furman

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Dr Kate Cronin-Furman to discuss her important new book Hypocrisy and Human Rights: Resisting Accountability for Mass Atrocities.

The book investigates the diverse ways in which repressive regimes respond to calls for justice and accountability and argues that international pressure can produce valuable results through indirect paths.

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Sri Lanka gradually returns to macroeconomic stability, but risks remain

Written by Anjali Hewapathage and Thilina Panduwawala

It may be true that Sri Lanka is on a path of economic recovery, but, despite the ambition and compliance to continue growth, it might prove challenging as risk factors play out both locally and globally.

South Asia9DLSeptember 25, 20239dashline, Sri Lanka gradually returns to macroeconomic stability, but risks remain, Anjali Hewapathage, Thilina Panduwawala, Sri Lanka, macroeconomic stability, IMF, Extended Fund Facility, EFF, domestic debt restructuring, DDR, domestic creditors, rupee, central bank, superannuation retirement funds, domestic banking system, private sector bond investors, interest rates, monetary easing, inflation, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, statutory reserve, economic recovery, economic growth, import restrictions, foreign exchange, tourism, inward remittances, revenue targets, expenditure targets, fiscal targets, fund disbursements, tax revenues, GDP ratio, pay-as-you-earn, PAYE, withholding taxes, tax revenue, property tax, wealth tax, revenue collection, tax collection authorities, interest expenditures, multilateral organisations, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, domestic financing, foreign exchange reserves, state-owned enterprises, SOEs, fiscal expenditure, cost-reflective energy reforms, SOE privatisation, Petroleum sector, Petroleum sector liberalisations, United Petroleum, RM Parks, Shell, economic ambition, IMF-backed reform agenda, reform agenda, superannuation funds, debt restructuring, cost of living crisis, costs of living, national elections, lagging economic recovery, private sector, high interest rates, bank loans, banking sector, non-performing loans, economic risks, El Niño phenomenon, South Asia, crude oil imports, hydroelectric power, economic volatility, climate risks, low-income households, social safety nets, social welfare, Sri Lankan economy, external debt repayments, external financing, restructured debt repayments, debt repayments, Sri Lanka gradually returns to macroeconomic stability but risks remain

Revival of Bay of Bengal: Bhutan and Bangladesh agree on sea port access

Written by Bhumika Sevkani

The development of these seaports is particularly crucial for the smaller landlocked countries of South Asia such as Nepal and Bhutan.

Ten-year review of China’s defence budget: Steadily toward modernisation

Written by Fei Su and Xiao Liang

Despite concerns over the transparency on the official figures, the sustained growth in China's military spending demonstrates its unwavering commitment to the PLA’s modernisation to become a ‘world-class’ military by the mid-21st century.

Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

Written by Nashalie De Silva and Thilina Panduwawala

It will be crucial to communicate the need for these tough reforms to voters and ensure that they benefit from the economic recovery.

South Asia9DLApril 17, 2023Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: what’s next?, 9dashline, Nashalie De Silva, Thilina Panduwawala, Sri Lanka, International Monetary Fund, IMF, IMF Executive Board, Extended Fund Facility, IMF Staff-Level Agreement, economic crisis, economic recovery, debt, Debt trap, debt restructuring, debt relief, creditor, China, Debtbook Diplomacy, debt trap diplomacy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India, Paris Club, China Development Bank (CDB), loans, COVID-19 pandemic, tax cut, USA, Export-Import Bank of China, moratorium, IMF Board Approval, IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), IMF Staff Report, Letter of Intent, inflation, unsustainable public debt, Zambia, Ecuador, low-income country, market-access country, fiscal consolidation, populist politics, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, technocrats, economic reforms, anti-corruption, Sri Lanka is finally on board with the IMF: What’s next?

Climate displacement in South Asia and India’s imperative to act

Written by Bhumika Sharma

Given the lack of international consensus, a unique opportunity exists for India to address the protection gap in South Asia’s policy regime for climate migrants.

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The Adani Group and India’s foreign policy

Written by Pranesh HP

India ought to ensure that it does not lose domestic integrity to corporate influence while chasing economic goals abroad, creating negative downstream implications for its foreign policy.

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Forum: The Rules-Based International Order in the Indo-Pacific

In recent years discussions among scholars, analysts, and policymakers have focused on the nature, transformation, and/or ostensible crisis of the rules-based international order. We invite three experts to offer differing perspectives on these ongoing debates in the context of the Indo-Pacific in this Forum for 9DASHLINE.

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2023: More tumultuous times ahead for Sri Lanka?

9DASHLINE asks several experts how they assess the prospects for political and economic recovery in 2023 after the turbulence of last year.

South Asia9DLFebruary 2, 20232023: More tumultuous times ahead for Sri Lanka?, 9DashLine, Sri Lanka, economic crisis, anti-government protests, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, economic recovery, RAJNI GAMAGE, Unsustainable debt, balance of payment challenges, bankrupt, foreign debt obligations, Mass protests, World Bank, poverty, IMF, tax reforms, state-owned enterprise reforms, geopolitics, balancing game, India, Japan, Western powers, China, debt restructuring, democracy, police surveillance, arrests, political opposition, emergency laws, military, rule of law, ASANGA ABEYAGOONASEKARA, Rajapaksas, powder keg, people’s uprising, Ranil Wickremasinghe, iron fist, Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), economic hardship, law and order, Ukraine war, oil prices, Colombo, financial assistance, political-economic crisis, internal and external geopolitical shocks, BHAGYA SENARATNE, currency default, youth-driven protests, Economic stability, political stability, popular mandate, legitimate president, Extended Fund Facility (EFF), inflation, accountability, attitudinal change

Putin’s war and a world in crisis: Beyond democracies and autocracies

Written by Eva Seiwert

The EU and allies should scrap the framing of ‘democracies vs autocracies’ not just with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also when speaking about China’s increase in power.

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