The future of US alliances in Northeast Asia

Written by Emma Whitmyer

Seoul and Tokyo should begin preparing for a future in which they navigate regional challenges without a close ally who shares the same values.

East Asia9DLApril 1, 2025The future of US alliances in Northeast Asia, China, Japan, United States, South Korea, Trump, Vance, North Korea, Russia, US, Hyundai, Yoon Suk Yeol, Special Measure Agreement, Forces Korea, Emma Whitmyer, ASPI

Discover the March issue of The Navigator – out now

This month, alongside our usual roundup of events, we examine how India is balancing oil imports amid geopolitical pressures and the impact of defunding Radio Free Asia on US soft power in the Indo-Pacific.

Both developments underscore the shifting balance of influence, where economic choices and media narratives are shaping global power dynamics.

News9DLMarch 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID, Chetan Rana, David MacSweeney, Radio Free Asia, Voice of America, Myanmar, Russia, Soft Power

Trump’s climate abandonment will erode US standing, particularly in the Indo-Pacific

Written by James Bowen

The risk posed by Trump’s new strategy will be most pronounced abroad, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Home to the world’s most rapidly developing and energy-hungry economies, it also hosts many fossil fuels and/or prospective clean energy producers whose future trajectories remain open to external influence.

Investment and technology are driving China’s maritime infrastructure dominance

Written by Hannah Hains

It is not yet clear whether Trump will institute a similar targeted tariff for shipping and port infrastructure, as recommended by a new report by the Office of the United States Trade Representative on ‘China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance’.

Has Australia turned its back on free trade?

Written by Melissa Conley Tyler and Viet Dung Trinh

By balancing domestic production and free trade, the Future Made in Australia Act aims to promote economic growth, create jobs, and support Australia's transition to a net-zero emissions economy.

Indonesia in BRICS: New chapter or familiar story?

Written by Dominique Fraser and Dr Premesha Saha

Indonesia will need to ensure that it carefully balances its commitments to BRICS alongside its responsibilities and obligations within ASEAN and its existing relationships with Western nations like the US and the EU.

Discover the February issue of The Navigator – Out Now

This month we examine Berlin’s economic and political challenges, a tough stance on China, and Southeast Asia’s reaction to the arrival of the Trump 2.0 presidency amid US policy uncertainty.

News9DLFebruary 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Hunter Marston, Roderick Kefferpütz, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Ukraine, German, Friedrich Merz, Germany, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID

Germans may not be interested in war, but war is interested in them

Written by Jana C. von Dessien

Two decades of wallowing in the comforts of cheap Russian energy, open Chinese markets, and US security guarantees seem to have thoroughly corrupted the entire political class.

In Dialogue: Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Matej Šimalčík on Taiwan

Central and Eastern Europe’s (CEE) relationship with Taiwan is evolving amid shifting global dynamics.

Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy speaks with Matej Šimalčík, a Taiwan Fellowship recipient currently based at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in Taipei, to explore the implications of these developments for CEE, Taiwan, and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLFebruary 25, 2025In Dialogue: Taiwan, Central and Eastern Europe, Dr. Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Matej Šimalčík, 9DASHLINE, Taiwan, China, Russia, Taiwan Fellowship, Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), Taipei, Robert Fico, Hungary, Slovakia, Donald Trump, CEE, great power rivalry, Europe-Taiwan relations, US foreign policy, Israel, Egypt, development aid, Chinese assertiveness in Europe, Europe, Democratic Progressive Party, polarisation, new US administration, Germany, South Korea, Key US ally, Fico administration, Slovakian society, the West, communist nostalgia, Crimea, Vladimír Mečiar, NATO, Russian hybrid warfare, 2014 annexation of Crimea, Victor Orban, CEE region, Hungarian government, Chinese investment, bridge between the East and West, EV sector., EV sector, German value chains, Eastern Opening, All Azimuth Foreign Policy, Hanoi, Moscow, Beijing, Seoul, Vietnam, strategic partnership with China, Western allies, Brazil, Serbia, Orbán’s Eastern Opening, greenfield investments, hinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), Volvo, EV factory, Gotion, Chinese battery producer, Volkswagen, transitioning to EV production, Automative sector, EU-Taiwan relations, cultural exchanges, people-to-people exchange, Slovakian perceptions, engagement with Taiwan, Mask diplomacy, COVID-19, trade and economic security, invasion of Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe, Polarisation, domestic politics, Civil Society, Grassroots, symbolic and substantive cooperation, One China policy, One China principle, PRC, like-minded partners in Europe, Taiwan-Europe relations, Normative power Taiwan? Human rights and Taiwan-EU relations, cooperation with Taiwan, Partners in Peace: Why Europe and Taiwan Matter to Each Other, Central European Institute of Asian Studies, ational Dong Hwa University, diplomatic recognition, deter coercion, grassroots leve, grassroots level, cities and regions, Tsai administration, Sweden, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, In Dialogue: Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Matej Šimalčík on Taiwan

Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China

Written by Dr Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova

Risks remain for Europe not just internally, but also externally, as China's support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and US pressure for a unified transatlantic approach limit the EU's room for manoeuvre.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLFebruary 19, 20259DASHLINE, Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China, UNA ALEKSANDRA BĒRZIŅA-ČERENKOVA, EU, European Union, European Commission, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ursula von der Leyen, China, geopolitics, EU's China policy, partner-competitor-rival trifecta, de-risking, critical raw materials, supply chains, EV imports, anti-subsidy investigation, 2019 strategic outlook, Political Guidelines, cooperation-competition-rivalry, “no-limits” friendship, Russia, economic security, economic statecraft, G7, resilient, rare earths, semiconductor, Mission letter, European Green Deal, Maroš Šefčovič, Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) Forum, AI, US, Chinese military, tariff, Japan, high value-added markets, US bipartisan anti-China stance, Beijing, PRC, EU member states, China-Russia relationship, US President Joe Biden, Ukraine, Donald Trump, Hungary, Germany, Slovakia, transatlantically

China's preferred endgame in Ukraine is a hybrid peace

Written by Dr Justyna Szczudlik

Sympathising with the idea of hybrid peace is a dangerous trap for the West. The only way to undermine Sino-Russian alignment, deter China from aggressive moves, and defend the rules-based order is to do everything possible to help Ukraine win the war.

No room for missteps: Cambodia’s strategic wishlist For Trump 2.0

Written by Chhay Lim

Policies that force Cambodia into a binary choice risk deepening its reliance on China and undermining US efforts to maintain influence in Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asia9DLFebruary 6, 20259DASHLINE, Chhay Lim, No Room for Missteps: Cambodia’s Strategic Wishlist For Trump 2.0, Donald Trump, White House, Cambodia, Strategic wishlist, Cambodia's strategic wishlist, Trump 2.0, Phnom Penh, Phnom Penh’s close alignment with Beijing on foreign policy, Prime Minister Hun Manet, Trump administration, proxy for Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, infrastructure development, digital transformation, trade diversification, maritime capacity, economic positioning, Vietnam, The Philippines, US-China competition, Hedging, strategic hedging, Prioritising Pragmatic Cooperation Over Ideology, prioritise economic and development cooperation, maritime security, 90-day suspension of USAID, USAID, liberal democratic values, transactional, Western assistance, Digital innovation, Public health, civic engagement, overdependence, hub for technology, digital entrepreneurship, Greater Mekong subregion, digital divide, inadequate infrastructure, cybersecurity, public-private partnerships, digital literacy, Washington, great power competitio, digital sovereignty, data sovereignty, data security, economic autonomy, Ream Naval Base, Maritime Self-Defence Force, Japan, Gulf of Thailand, military exchanges, Cambodian policymakers, security engagements, security ties with Japan, binary choice, US-Cambodia relations, Democracy, human rights, democracy promotion, Cambodian Foreign Ministry, Cambodia Democracy and Human Rights Act, US Congress, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, mutual respect and understanding, cooperation, Cambodia-China relations, Cambodian People’s Party, Communist Party of Vietnam, national interest, Moscow, China-Vietnam, balance relations with Beijing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, balanced relations with Beijing, great power rivalry, elephants fight or make love, smaller states, US-Vietnam trade, China-Vietnam trade, Thailand, China, Cambodia’s reliance on China, political legitimacy, security assurances, Chinese Communist Party, ideological pressure, regime change, strategic ambiguity, transparency, No room for missteps: Cambodia’s strategic wishlist For Trump 2.0

How the Russia-North Korea alliance challenges China's strategic interests in Northeast Asia

Written by Anny Boc

Beijing’s passive approach only reflects its dilemma of balancing its regional interests with its need to preserve strategic ties with both Russia and North Korea, especially as the competition between China and the United States is likely to intensify.

Discover the January issue of The Navigator – Out Now

This month we look at how the ongoing Gaza conflict is reshaping global geopolitics, and intensifying the rivalry between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific. Our second brief argues for the (re)inclusion of Kenya — an important regional power strategically located along the Indian Ocean — as a key part of the Indo-Pacific.

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News9DLJanuary 31, 2025The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, Indo-Pacific, ASEAN, The Bridge, EPinASEAN, European Parliament in ASEAN, China, India, Donald Trump, South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal, David MacSweeney, Taiwan, Gaza

Europe braces for a turbulent ride with China

Written by Victor De Decker

However, a key question remains: to what extent can European authorities strike a deal with China while facing coercive pressure from the Trump administration on the one hand and Beijing’s inflexible negotiation tactics on the other?

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, Most Popular9DLJanuary 28, 20259DASHLINE, China, EU, Germany, China-Europe relations, EVs, Tarrifs, Trump 2024, Victor De Decker, European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, Trade war, Chinese EVs, Trump 2.0

New risks for Taiwan in Trump’s second term

Written by Rorry Daniels

For at least the next four years, downward pressure on the US-China relationship will prevent a breakthrough in cross-Taiwan Strait relations.

East Asia9DLJanuary 21, 20259DASHLINE, New risks for Taiwan in Trump's second term, Rorry Daniels, Trump, Taiwan, China

Discover the December issue of The Navigator – Out Now

As the year comes to a close, the Indo-Pacific continues to witness dynamic shifts across the political, economic, and strategic landscapes.

This month's brief explores how China may be attempting to connect disputes in the South China Sea with its declared objective of reunification with Taiwan.

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News9DLDecember 31, 2024The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, Indo-Pacific, ASEAN, The Bridge, EPinASEAN, European Parliament in ASEAN, Fiji, China, AUKUS, India, Donald Trump, South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal, David MacSweeney, Taiwan

Vietnam’s semiconductor push amid the Sino-US technological rivalry

Written by Tran Thi Mong Tuyen

To establish itself as a semiconductor hub Vietnam needs a bold strategy that leverages its ‘latecomer’ advantages. Vietnam should set clear goals and concentrate resources on developing its semiconductor industry, with milestones for 2030 and 2050.

Southeast Asia9DLDecember 19, 20249DASHLINE, Vietnam, Tran Thi Mong Tuyen, Vietnam’s semiconductor push amid the Sino-US Technological Rivalry, Semiconductor, Chips Act, Taiwan, United States, China, semiconductors