Discover the February issue of The Navigator – Out Now

This month we examine Berlin’s economic and political challenges, a tough stance on China, and Southeast Asia’s reaction to the arrival of the Trump 2.0 presidency amid US policy uncertainty.

News9DLFebruary 28, 2025Trump, ASEAN, Hunter Marston, Roderick Kefferpütz, Taiwan, The Navigator, 9DASHLINE, US, United States, Ukraine, German, Friedrich Merz, Germany, Indo-Pacific, China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Samoa, USAID

Germans may not be interested in war, but war is interested in them

Written by Jana C. von Dessien

Two decades of wallowing in the comforts of cheap Russian energy, open Chinese markets, and US security guarantees seem to have thoroughly corrupted the entire political class.

Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China

Written by Dr Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova

Risks remain for Europe not just internally, but also externally, as China's support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and US pressure for a unified transatlantic approach limit the EU's room for manoeuvre.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLFebruary 19, 20259DASHLINE, Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China, UNA ALEKSANDRA BĒRZIŅA-ČERENKOVA, EU, European Union, European Commission, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ursula von der Leyen, China, geopolitics, EU's China policy, partner-competitor-rival trifecta, de-risking, critical raw materials, supply chains, EV imports, anti-subsidy investigation, 2019 strategic outlook, Political Guidelines, cooperation-competition-rivalry, “no-limits” friendship, Russia, economic security, economic statecraft, G7, resilient, rare earths, semiconductor, Mission letter, European Green Deal, Maroš Šefčovič, Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) Forum, AI, US, Chinese military, tariff, Japan, high value-added markets, US bipartisan anti-China stance, Beijing, PRC, EU member states, China-Russia relationship, US President Joe Biden, Ukraine, Donald Trump, Hungary, Germany, Slovakia, transatlantically

China's preferred endgame in Ukraine is a hybrid peace

Written by Dr Justyna Szczudlik

Sympathising with the idea of hybrid peace is a dangerous trap for the West. The only way to undermine Sino-Russian alignment, deter China from aggressive moves, and defend the rules-based order is to do everything possible to help Ukraine win the war.

How the Russia-North Korea alliance challenges China's strategic interests in Northeast Asia

Written by Anny Boc

Beijing’s passive approach only reflects its dilemma of balancing its regional interests with its need to preserve strategic ties with both Russia and North Korea, especially as the competition between China and the United States is likely to intensify.

South Korea’s martial law moment: constitutional crisis, and the regional order

Written by Dr Seohee Park

This crisis represents more than a domestic Korean political drama; it tests the resilience of regional alliances and could accelerate broader geopolitical shifts in an increasingly complex Northeast Asian landscape.

East Asia9DLJanuary 6, 20259DASHLINE, Constitutional crisis and regional order: South Korea’s martial law moment, Seohee Park, South Korea, Korea, Yoon, Yoon government, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Yoon Suk-yeol, Yoon Suk Yeol, President Yoon Suk Yeol, President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, martial law, First Lady Kim Keon Hee, stock manipulation, corruption, People Power Party (PPP), Han Dong-hoon, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, National Assembly, Mencian principle, authoritarian, collective memory, Syngman Rhee’s anti-communist crackdowns, Park Chung-hee’s military dictatorship, Chun Doo-hwan, 1980 Gwangju Democracy Movement, national psyche, military, Yeouido, lawmakers, opposition, South Korea’s democracy, democracy, Constitutional Court, impeachment, bipartisan, Democratic Party (DP), Donald Trump, White House, regional stability, Shigeru Ishiba, Japan, Northeast Asia, diplomatic realignment, diplomatic, Korea passing, Chinese President Xi, Seoul-Tokyo rapprochement, semiconductor, trade, restrictions, Camp David summit, security cooperation, Lee Jae-myung, constitutional crisis, Moon Jae-in, North Korea, America First, Tokyo, Asian NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, ASEAN, allies, Korean Peninsula, US-Japan alliance, US-UK relationship, Quad, India, Australia, Official Security Assistance (OSA), Philippines, Indonesia, Mongolia, Djibouti, semiconductor supply chains, emerging technologies, impeachment of Acting President Han Duck-soo (Prime Minister)

From equidistance to engagement: The evolution of Russia’s Korea strategy

Written by Anthony V. Rinna

As long as Russia refrains from taking any steps in its defence cooperation with North Korea that directly threaten South Korea, there is still a chance that Moscow can leave room for at least a partial restoration of ties with Seoul.

Editor's Picks, East Asia9DLAugust 13, 20249DASHLINE, From equidistance to engagement: the evolution of Russia’s Korea Strategy, Anthony v. Rinna, Russia, DPRK, ROK, South Korea, North Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pyongyang, comprehensive strategic partnership, North Korea-Russia ties, Kremlin, strategy of diplomatic equidistance, equidistance, regional security, Korean Peninsula, Moscow, Seoul, Mikhail Gorbachev’s Krasnoyarsk Declaration, Roh Tae-woo’s Nordpolitik, Nordpolitik, Soviet Union, rapprochement, US, China, Cold War, strategic cooperative partnership, unfriendly, Ukraine, weapon's exports, Cha Du Hyeogn, Russian Far East, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), US’ Northeast Asia alliance network, sanctions relief, economic cooperation, Korea International Trade Association, trade, Georgy Zinoviev, friendliest of unfriendly countries, NATO, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, energy, energy imports, Korea Trade Promotion Corporation (KOTRA), natural gas, South Korea’s energy dependence on Russia, coal imports, Lim Soo-suk, UN Security Council

NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership

Written by Emma Chanlett-Avery

A decisive shift in US policy towards isolationism and “America First” could disrupt or downgrade ‘trans-Atlantic’ and Indo-Pacific alliances.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia, Most Popular9DLAugust 8, 20249DASHLINE, Emma Chanlett-Avery, NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership, NATO, NATO Summit, Washington, Biden administration, Joe Biden, foreign policy, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, White House, the Indo-Pacific Partners (IPP), Russia’s aggression, China’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine, China, Russia, Ukraine, NATO-IPP relationship, Northeast Asia, European allies, Asian democracies, international liberal order, Tokyo, Seoul, South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, information security, counter-piracy, China as a strategic challenge, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Moscow, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Yoon Suk Yeol, NATO Summit in Madrid, sanctions, humanitarian aid, defence industry, Poland, arms exports, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, DPRK, anti-aircraft systems, Beijing, Putin-Kim summit, nuclear weapons, missiles, Pyongyang, Minilaterals, US-South Korea-Japan, US-Japan-Philippines, AUKUS, Quad, Biden-Harris administration, Donald Trump, isolationism, US Congress, GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance, defence planners, America First

US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat

Written by James Kaizuka

Deeper institutionalisation of security cooperation, bilaterally between Japan and South Korea and trilaterally also including the United States, can head off all of these threats and ensure that the ‘inaugural’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue is not the ‘only’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue.

East Asia9DLMarch 27, 20249dashline, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat, James Kaizuka, Japan, South Korea, US, trilateral, Indo-Pacific Dialogue, Populism, Washington, cooperation, mutual threats, Security, GSOMIA intelligence-sharing agreement, GSOMIA, Soviet, Tsushima Strait, nationalism, Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida, South Korea’s President Yoon, President Biden, authoritarian threat, democracy, Republican Party, President Trump, US allies, trans-pacific, transatlantic, isolationist, free-riding, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, depoliticising, Seoul, Tokyo, populism, elections, South Korea’s National Assembly, Democratic Party, Yoon’s Japan policy, Liberal Democratic Party, Nippon Kaigi, revisionism, Takaichi Sanae, Yasukuni Shrine, Ukraine, territory, history, reparations, wartime compensation, nuclear terrorism, Fukushima’s wastewater, Fukushima, Fukushima water, 1923 Kanto earthquake, second Trump presidency, Anti-military base movements, Alkonis affair, America First, Chinese disinformation, espionage, election interference, Camp David summit, NATO, European Union, Southeast Asia, Seibou Bunri, seikei bunri, diplomacy, defence

US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident

Written by Rorry Daniels

While breakthroughs remain unlikely, the test in 2024 is whether the US and China can manage differences quietly and directly while under the political magnifying glass.

Faultlines9DLMarch 12, 2024US-China in 2024: One year after the spy balloon incident, 9DASHLINE, Rorry Daniels, US-China relationship, China, US, United States, balloon, spy balloon, Chinese surveillance, espionage, US-China diplomatic interaction, US elections, Taiwan, spy balloon incident, Biden administration, Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Beijing, bureaucracies, domestic politics, homeland security, bipartisan consensus, Washington, Xi Jinping, propaganda, state-driven, 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, Gaza, Middle East, NATO, Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s inner circle, US sanctions, Qin Gang, Li Shangfu, COVID recovery, authoritarianism, co-exist peacefully, free market principles, diversification, hedging, cross-Taiwan Strait relations, cross-Strait, US presidential and congressional elections, diplomacy, Taipei, non-proliferation, humanitarian aid

Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling

Written by Varenya Singh and Chetan Rana

China's persistent rejection of the tribunal's jurisdiction and ruling, along with its continuous assertion of sovereignty, underscores the limitations of international legal mechanisms in addressing deep-rooted geopolitical disputes.

Pacific, Power Politics9DLMarch 11, 20249DASHLINE, Clashes in the South China Sea, looking back at the PCA Ruling, Chetan Rana, Varenya Singh, South China Sea, Cold War, Europe, West Asia, Ukraine, Gaza, China, Philippines, South China Sea (SCS), SCS, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources, map, standard map, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), littoral states, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines Coast Guard, Sierra Madre, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratly Islands, Filipino, grey-zone activities, non-military vessels, territorial claims, maritime militia, Beijing, Manila, vessels, maritime territorial disputes, arbitral proceedings, arbitration, Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), PCA, PCA award of 2016, PCA ruling, China’s nine-dash line, nine-dash line, Annex VII, Arbitration Tribunal under Annex VII of UNCLOS, UNCLOS, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, sovereignty, delimitation, artificially built islands, delimitation of state boundaries, Article 9, unilateral, fishermen, marine resources, fishing, 12 nautical mile, extractive, purely extractive activity, self-dependent economic activity, maritime fishing zones, coral reefs, turtle, clam, international law, dispute, ASEAN, Code of Conduct (CoC), COC, Indonesia, Laos, Cambodia, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., non-claimant states, Australia, Japan, United States, us, USA, militarising, military exercises, sea lanes, environmental crisis, securitisation, marine diversity, sustainability, realpolitik, Israel-Hamas conflict

Taiwan must be cautious in drawing lessons from the Israel-Hamas war

Written by Dr Mor Sobol

In the last few years, amid escalating tensions between Taiwan and China, and the heightened geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing, there has been a noticeable surge in interest from the Taiwanese side — both at official and ‘academic’ levels — in learning from the Israeli experience regarding security and defence.

East Asia9DLFebruary 21, 2024Taiwan must be cautious in drawing lessons from the Israel-Hamas war, Dr Mor Sobol, Israel, Palestine, Taiwan, Israeli-Hamas war, Taiwan's Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng, Gaza, Ukraine, Russia, Military strategy, cybersecurity, civil society, China, PLA, Cross-Strait relations

Facing battlefield losses, Myanmar’s junta may look to ASEAN for off-ramps

Written by Hunter Marston

Identifying possible mediators and key stakeholders is critical at this particular juncture, and given the present circumstances we need not let perfect be the enemy of good.

Southeast Asia, Most Popular9DLFebruary 19, 20249dashline, Hunter Marston, Facing Battlefield Losses, Myanmar’s Junta May Look to ASEAN for Offramps, sit-tat, Myanmar Junta, myanmar military, Burmese, Operation 1027, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, State Administrative Council’s (SAC), Beijing has grown frustrated, Ukraine, Laos chairmanship of ASEAN, India, China, ndonesia’s ‘quiet diplomacy', Arakan Army (AA), Japanese special envoy Yohei Sasakawa, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the SAC, National Unity Government, Three Brotherhood Alliance, Sagaing, Shan, Chin, Chin state, shan state, sagaing state, Mandalay, Naypyidaw, ASEAN’s 2021 Five Point Consensus, 5PC, Jakarta, Burmese society, “troika” model, Laos, Indonesia, and the Philippines, Myanmar’s generals, ASEAN-brokered solution, people of Myanmar

The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security

Written by Wooyun Jo

The spy satellite launch reinforces the need for vigilant monitoring and surveillance to assess the capabilities and intentions of North Korea, as well as to strengthen regional defence against potential nuclear missile attacks.

East Asia9DLJanuary 17, 20249dashline, The significance of North Korea's spy satellite launch for regional security, Wooyun Jo, North Korea, spy satellite, regional security, MALLIGYONG-1, South Korea, US, Japan, Korean Peninsula, Missile Technology Control Regime, satellite technology, Russia, critical technologies, heavy artillery ammunition, Moscow, Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine, technology transfer, military capabilities, spy satellite launch, inter-Korean relationship, Pyongyang, technological advancement, espionage, hostile nations, regional security dynamics, countering threats, detecting threats, long-range ballistic missile technology, United Nations, United Nations resolutions, UNSC, Vann Van Diepen, new technology, troop movements, strategic advantages, nuclear deterrence, intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, SLBMs, strategic bombers, intelligence-gathering capabilities, strategic assets, real-time intelligence, missiles technology, ballistic missile tests, security interests, regional allies, Yoon Suk-yeol, satellite launch, threat perception, nuclear tensions, space programme, missile capabilities, regional cooperation, deterrence measures, ROK-US-Japan, surveillance, security cooperation, General Security of Military Information Agreement, GSOMIA, Tokyo, ballistic missile defence drill, anti-submarine exercises, trilaterals, missile defence systems, joint military exercises, sanctions, nuclear programmes, missile programmes, economic sanctions, Seoul, Washington

Democratic resilience – Why Taiwan and Europe must be more ambitious in 2024

Written by Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy

Taiwan is a frontline democracy, which makes it an indispensable partner for Europe, one it should learn from as it braces for its own elections, with interference and information manipulation expected to increase, in particular from China and Russia.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 18, 2023Democratic resilience – Why Taiwan and Europe must be more ambitious in 2024, Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, EU-Taiwan relations, China, Europe, Parliamentary diplomacy, Russia, Taiwan national election, European Parliament, democratic resilience, European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee (AFET), European Parliament’s Special Committee on Foreign Interference in all Democratic Processes (INGE), Committee on International Trade (INTA), Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, President Tsai Ing-wen, Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Markéta Pekarová Adamová, Senate President Miloš Vystrčil, Ukraine, Baltic nations, Lai Ching-te, Hou Yu-ih, Ko Wen-je, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), Disinformation, Doublethink Lab, Taiwanese identity

In Brief with Antoine Ripoll, Director of the European Parliament in ASEAN

9DASHLINE recently enjoyed the opportunity to speak with Antoine Ripoll, Director of the European Parliament in ASEAN. Our discussion touched on a range of issues pertaining to the European Union’s relationship with Southeast Asia and the European Parliament’s growing role in foreign policy.

The Kim-Putin summit: thrusting Russia-US tensions into Northeast Asia

Written by Anthony V. Rinna

From a longer-term perspective, the summit between Kim and Putin could also thrust Moscow-Washington tensions into the Asia-Pacific in ways not seen since the Cold War.

In Conversation with Kate Cronin-Furman

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Dr Kate Cronin-Furman to discuss her important new book Hypocrisy and Human Rights: Resisting Accountability for Mass Atrocities.

The book investigates the diverse ways in which repressive regimes respond to calls for justice and accountability and argues that international pressure can produce valuable results through indirect paths.

In Conversation9DLOctober 17, 20239dashline, Kate Cronin-Furman, In Conversation, In Conversation with Kate Cronin-Furman, Hypocrisy and Human Rights: Resisting Accountability for Mass Atrocities, repression, regime, justice, accountability, human rights, noncompliance, international human rights pressure, quasi-compliance, UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), multilateral, human rights enforcement, US, UK, Western human rights enforcement efforts, Sri Lanka, civil war, mass atrocities, NGOs, UN Human Rights Council, peer states, ethnic majoritarian democracy, marginalised communities, Tamil, civilian, military, Sinhalese, Burmese Rohingya, ohingya, Rohingya, minority, counter-terrorism, national security, India, China, International Criminal Court, sanctions, war criminals, war crimes, reputational, transitional justice, international human rights norms, racism, islamophobia, media, Ukraine, Russia’s invasion, victims, audiences