Best of 2022: The Indo-Pacific

Take this opportunity to review some of our most-read analyses from the past year on the evolving strategies of several countries toward the Indo-Pacific.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 2, 2023Preparing for a crowded Indo-Pacific: where to next?, Gabriele Abbondanza, Korea, indonesia, Australia, South Korea, Europe, indo-pacific, Is South Korea’s new Indo-Pacific strategy finally forthcoming?, Wongi Choe, Moon Jae-in, south korea, japan, australia, Elli Pohlkamp, Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp, Tokyo, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, United States, China, Christiane Heidbrink, Putin, Germany, Scholz, Bundeswehr, Asia-Pacific, France, Rafael Loss, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Hamburg Institute for Peace Research, Berlin, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, German Council on Foreign Relations, DGAP, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Reuben Steff, Martin Jirušek, US, Taiwan, The US should prioritise the Indo-Pacific over Ukraine, Aine Cooke

How and why Japan can be an alternative to China in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Kyoko Hatakeyama

Moreover, since Japan has maintained a stable relationship with China — despite their territorial disputes — the region does not have to worry about backlash or anger from China just because they choose Japan over China.

East Asia9DLDecember 16, 20229dashline, How and why Japan can be an alternative to China in the Indo-Pacific, Kyoko Hatakeyama, Japan, China, South China Sea, nine-dash line, Senkaku Island, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP, TPP, United States, Trans-Pacific Partnership, trade partner, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, Tokyo, Beijing, regional economic integration, sphere of influence, Sino-centric order, infrastructure projects, G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment, G20, Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment, indo-pacific, Abeonomics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Abenomics, Shinzo Abe, South Korea, Taiwan, Jakarta, Bandung, Indonesia, Cambodia, debt, debt trap, Pacific Island states, Solomon Islands, Australia, New Zealand, COVID-19 crisis, COVAX, WHO, ASEAN, Sinovac, Laos, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Donald Trump, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ‘debt trap’ diplomacy, Asian Development Bank, Nauru, Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Philippines, Vietnam, Philippine Coast Guards (PCG), Joko Widodo, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Natuna archipelago, Natuna Islands, USA

Japan’s ‘history problem’ lingers on after Abe

Written by Chris Deacon

Almost eight decades after the end of the Second World War, the legacy of Japan’s military expansionism and colonial rule across the Pacific continues to haunt its contemporary international politics, particularly within Northeast Asia.

Faultlines9DLDecember 8, 20229DashLine, Chris Deacon, Japan’s ‘history problem’ lingers on after Abe, Japan, South Korea, WWII, military expansionism, colonial rule, Northeast Asia, bilateral antagonism, Beijing, South Korea-Japan relations, wartime forced labour, Tokyo, Seoul, regional relations, alliance politics, Asia Pacific, United States, Washington, China, North Korea, historical antagonisms, growing nationalism, historical revisionism, Abe Shinzō, Shinzo Abe, post-Abe era, nationalism, revisionism, Japanese school textbooks, comfort women, Japanese government, constitutional restrictions, armed forces, defence cooperation, Kishi Nobusuke, foreign relations, Yasukuni Shrine, Park Geun-hye, Dokdo/Takeshima, Yasukuni, Moon Jae-in, compensation for victims, trade restrictions, Kishida Fumio, Fumio Kishida, revisionist policies, wartime labourers, UNESCO, Sado mine complex, Yoon Suk-yeol, mutual antagonism, national identity, Japanese national identity, Korea fatigue, national identity narratives, 2015 ‘comfort women’ agreement, nation-building narratives, bilateral cooperation, Japan-South Korea bilateral cooperation, identity constructs

The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rafael Loss and Elisabeth I-Mi Suh

Adopting a rather transactional take and framing the Bundeswehr’s regional engagement in the context of Washington’s focus on China is not wrong, but it is short-sighted.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 1, 20229DashLine, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, Rafael Loss, Betty Suh, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Bundeswehr, Indo-Pacific, Germany, Berlin, diplomacy, German federal armed forces, armed forces, joint exercises, NATO, NATO allies, Australia, China, military posture, National Security Strategy, China Strategy, German frigate Bayern, German Navy, navy, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Eberhard Zorn, Pakistan, Guam, Japan, south korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, India, South China Sea, innocent passage, Taiwan Strait, Beijing, Shanghai, German Air Force, Eurofighter, jets, transporters, tankers, Rapid Pacific, Pitch Black air combat exercise, Kakadu maritime combat exercise, F-35 stealth aircraft, F-35, Talisman Saber, United States, NATO sumiit, Nato Summit, NATO Strategic Concept, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, New Zealand, cyber, cyber defence, maritime security, climate change, Disinformation, hybrid threats, Canberra, Tokio, Tokyo, Enhanced Opportunity Partner, Multilateralism, Asia-Pacific, deterrence, Taiwan, North Korea, missile tests, Rheinmetall, Russia, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army, Russian Navy, authoritarian revisionism, White House

The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals

Written by Alice Dell’Era

From Europe’s perspective, these potential trilateral and/or minilateral consultative mechanisms could give European actors the space to voice their own outlook, ensuring that European viewpoints are incorporated into Japanese and American perspectives.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia9DLNovember 25, 20229DashLine, The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals, Alice Dell’Era, US-Japan, security partnership, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Cold War, Japan, US, United States, allies, bilateralism, bilateralism-plus, trilateral, minilateral, minilateral regional mechanisms, bilateral alliance, Republic of Korea, ROK, Australia, India, Europe, Biden administration, France, UK, Germany, Abe Cabinet, Arc of Freedom and Prosperity Initiative’, European partners, 2+2, dynamic strategic partnership, Japan-France Comprehensive Maritime Dialogue, Working Group on the Indo-Pacific, Reciprocal Access Agreement, RAA, extra-regional partner, Tokyo, Berlin, Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, defence, Franco-Japanese bilateral exercises, joint military training, goodwill training, Indo-Pacific deployment, Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force, ASDF, quadrilateral, Washington, La Perouse, ARC21, US-Japan 2021 ANNUALEX, ANNUALEX, US-Japan Alliance-Plus

More than signalling: North Korea’s missiles and Japan’s enhanced need for deterrence

Written by Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi and Christopher Lamont

Even though Japan’s defence planning faces dilemmas and doubts going forward, there is a renewed consensus in Tokyo that more must be done to deter and defend against a diverse range of challenges posed by China, North Korea, and Russia.

East Asia9DLOctober 28, 20229DashLine, More than signalling: North Korea’s missiles and Japan’s enhanced need for deterrence, Christopher Lamont, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, North Korea, missile launches, tactical nuclear operation units, Korean People’s Army, KPA, intermediate-range ballistic missile, Japan, Japanese archipelago, Northern Japan, combat aircraft, artillery drills, China, Taiwan, Russia-Ukraine war, Pyongyang, Taepodong, technological demonstrators, Hwasongpho-12, intermediate-range missiles, intercontinental ballistic missile, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, missile tests, strategic signalling, South Korea, United States, Tokyo, five-year military modernisation plan, nuclear weapons doctrine, ‘dead hand’ strike mechanisms, Kim Jong-un, ‘decapitation’ strike, military readiness, hybrid warfare, high-end weapons systems, aircraft carriers, artillery, anti-air missiles, anti-ship missiles, mines, submarines, electronic and cyber warfare capabilities, information warfare, misinformation, missile drills, nuclear missile arsenal, Self-Defence Forces, SDF, ballistic missile defence, BMD, Aegis-guided SM-3 systems, SM-6, Patriot PAC-3 systems, Russia, deterrence, Korean peninsula

Japan-Russia relations: Stronger stance needed on energy imports

Written by James DJ Brown

The Kishida administration’s record since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is impressive, especially compared to Abe’s pandering to Putin. Yet Japan needs to go one step further by rapidly cutting imports of Russian gas.

Faultlines9DLOctober 7, 20229DashLine, Stronger stance needed on energy imports: Japan-Russia relations, James DJ Brown, Japan, Russia, Russian aggression, Russia-Ukraine war, G7, energy, Putin, Kishida, Crimea annexation, Shinzo Abe, solidarity, Russian economy, territorial dispute, eight-point economic cooperation plan, General Oleg Salyukov, Salyukov, Fumio Kishida, Ukraine, international law, China, Kishida government, shinryaku, sanctions, sanctions package, Russian energy, coal and gas imports, expelling diplomats, fiscal support, non-lethal equipment, overseas transfer of defence equipment, Ukrainian refugees, Tokyo, Moscow, Nikolai Patrushev, Russophobes, Kuril Islands, Southern Kurils, military activities, live-fire drills, Vostok-2022 exercises, Defence Minister Hamada Yasukazu, Yasukazu Hamada, strategic bombers, warships, Sergey Lavrov, Federal Security Service, FSB, Zelensky, Minister for Economic Cooperation with Russia, LNG, liquified natural gas, hydrocarbons, energy security, Hagiuda Koichi, gas imports, Russian gas

Seoul cannot have a credible Indo-Pacific strategy without Taiwan

Written by Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Tereza Novotna

Much of this is also about how far Seoul will be prepared to join many of its partners in working with Taiwan. In other words, if South Korea wants to play a bigger role in the Indo-Pacific, it is high time that Seoul joins the ‘Taiwan club’.

East Asia9DLSeptember 9, 20229DashLine, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Tereza Novotna, Seoul cannot have a credible Indo-Pacific strategy without Taiwan, Republic of Korea, south korea, China, PRC, Taiwan, japan, Shinzo Abe, USA, Yoon Suk-yeol, semiconductors, Nancy Pelosi, Indo-Pacific, Beijing, Seoul, Taiwan Strait, Tokyo, middle power, Security, Washington, Park Jin, india, Australia, defence, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, EU, Brussels, European Parliament, Covid, Global Cooperation and Training Framework, GCTF, Taipei, quad, Nobuo Kishi, US-Japan Security Consultative Committee, Supply Chain Resilience Initiative, Pelosi, People’s Republic of China, Korea, South Korea, Japan, India, COVID, COVID19, Taiwan Model, Europe, Xi Jinping, hybrid warfare, cyberattacks, THAAD, Quad, Quaderateral Security Dialogue, SCRI, Delhi, Taiwan Club, Russia, Ukraine

The Quad’s persistent PR problem

Written by Kate Clayton

If the Quad follows through on its vaccine commitment to the region, they have an opportunity to become a staple in the regional architecture but if they don’t, the region will likely remain unconvinced about the benefits of the Quad and its ability to combat security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

Is South Korea’s new Indo-Pacific strategy finally forthcoming?

Written by Wongi Choe

In contrast to the previous Moon Jae-in administration of the Republic of Korea (ROK), the new Yoon Suk-yeol government is highly likely to take on a new broader regional strategy with a comprehensive Indo-Pacific framework at its core.

Japan-Russia: The end of delusions

Written by Céline Pajon

Faced with the paralysis of the UN Security Council (UNSC), for instance, Tokyo condemned Russian actions and called for reform of this body. As part of this reform, the number of UNSC permanent members would increase, with a seat for Japan.

Japan’s strategic policies under the current global order

Written by Elli Pohlkamp

This behaviour of inactivity and standing on the sidelines has changed now, driven by the concern that one day Japan might need help from its Western alliance partners should the security situation around Japan change.

Pacific9DLApril 7, 20229dashline, Elli Pohlkamp, Japan, Tokyo, Shinzo Abe, Fumio Kishida, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Putin, China, Beijing, Xi Jinping, Rules based Order, NATO, EU, energy security, Northern Territories, UN Charter, Sanctions, East China Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Sino-Russian, Tsugaro Strait, LNG, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, FOIP, United States, US, ASEAN, Australia, India, CPTPP, RCEP, EPA, Economic Partnership Agreement, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, QUAD, National Security Strategy, NSS, National Defense Program Guidelines, NDPG, Medium Term Defense Force Buildup, MTDP, 2+2, indonesia, France, Reciprocal Access Agreement, RAA, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, LDP, G7, Japan’s strategic policies under the current global order, Free and open Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, UN, United Nations, Taiwan, Europe, European, European Union, Quad, Medium Term Defense Force Buildup Program, Kishida, Prime Minister Abe, European Council on Foreign Relations, ECFR

The Russian military build-up on Japan’s northern frontier

Written by James DJ Brown

Tokyo has little option but to stand firm, enhance cooperation with democratic partners, especially the United States, and demonstrate that Japan, while not acting aggressively, is closely monitoring Russian activities in its vicinity and is fully capable of defending its waters and airspace.

In Conversation: Nicola Nymalm on From ‘Japan Problem’ to ‘China Threat’?

In a nutshell, some commentaries suggested that while Biden would change the tone, he might not change the substance that much. I think this is largely what we have seen so far.

2022: Russia the other Pacific power

Even if Russia does not play a key role in the competition between the major powers of the Indo-Pacific right now, the country could become an indispensable partner in the future geopolitical constellations in this most significant geographical area.

The team behind 9DASHLINE

As we bid adieu to a busy and rewarding year for our team, 9DL’s leadership — David MacSweeney [Founder], Dr Manali Kumar [Editor-in-Chief], and Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy [Head of the Associates’ Network] — answer some frequently asked questions.

An enduring crisis: Assessing the state of Japan’s North Korea policy

Written by Sebastian Maslow

With the US pushing its agenda of ‘integrated deterrence’ in Asia and North Korea testing new missiles, pressure on Japan to obtain capabilities to strike enemy bases will likely gain further momentum.

Pacific9DLDecember 9, 20219DASHLINE, Sebastian Maslow, North Korea, Japan, Tokyo, Pyongyang, LDP, DPRK, Korean Peninsula, Axis of Evil, Northeast Asia, Article 9, Human Rights, Abe, ballistic missile defence, F-35, Aegis Ashore, Aegis, PAC-3, integrated deterrence, Kishida

Taiwan in Japan’s security puzzle: Abe’s 'uncontroversial' Taiwan statement

Written by Stephen Nagy

This approach suggests that Tokyo and strong advocates of explicitly articulating Taiwan’s importance to Japan’s security (such as Abe) will see policy towards Taiwan and China through the lens of Japan’s economic security concerns.