The Quad’s persistent PR problem

13 June 2022

May this year marked the fourth Quad leaders’ meeting. The meeting saw a more ambitious Quad take the stage, working with the Indo-Pacific on health security, technology, climate change, and space. Highlights from the meeting included Maritime Domain Awareness and an emphasised inclusion of the Pacific Islands, a sensitive topic as China is currently increasing its security cooperation with those islands. No longer held back by climate cautious Scott Morrison, the former Australian prime minister, a more substantial commitment to climate change was announced at the May leaders' meeting, helping to focus the Quad.

Australia's new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flew into Tokyo only three hours after being sworn in. With climate change at the centre of his foreign policy, at the meeting, Albanese increased Australia’s net-zero commitment to 43 per cent by 2030. This also enabled the Quad to strengthen their language on climate change. The meeting was crucial to his new government's foreign policy agenda and was a testament to the importance of the Quad to the region. Albanese's participation also sought to lay to rest the fifteen-year-long anxiety of the Quad: a state might back out for fear of provoking China. There was concern that the return to an Australian Labor government might weaken Australia’s commitment to the Quad.

With the worst of the pandemic over for the Quad states, vaccine distribution must remain at the top of the Quad agenda.

After all, it was under Kevin Rudd’s leadership that the first attempts to create a Quad Dialogue came to an end due to concerns over China’s reaction. After the May meeting, it is clear that the Quad is here to stay. Eager commitments from all states to further enmesh the Quad into regional security architecture demonstrate a long-term commitment to the grouping. But questions remain if the Quad can live up to the hype. For the Quad to succeed, Japan, Australia, India and the United States need to make it clear what the Quad is and how it serves the Indo-Pacific region. The Quad needs to clarify its aims and work harder at convincing the rest of the Indo-Pacific of its purpose.

What is the Quad?

The overall aims of the Quad remain unclear. The Quad has a PR problem, which is not helped by a stop-start history since 2004, where multiple efforts have been made to revive the Quad. Quad states are yet to convince the region about what the grouping is and how it benefits Indo-Pacific security. Although the Quad’s “organising principle” is deterring Chinese influence in the region, this mission remains blurred by vague references to China, such as “free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion”. This ambiguity does offer a strategic advantage: by never explicitly committing to balancing China, the grouping can appeal to Indo-Pacific states that are cooperating with China. But this has created a problem for the Quad: no one knows what it is and what it does.

The Quad’s beginnings after the 2004 tsunami in Indonesia are key for its future. Assisting the region in humanitarian disaster resilience will likely be core business for the Quad as the effects of climate change take hold. The focus on non-traditional security issues such as climate, health, and cyber is the Quad’s strength. The Quad should lean into this agenda, helping to redefine what security is by focussing on non-traditional security issues. As Hayley Channer has suggested, a website to “help brand the initiative and provide a single source of official information” would help strengthen conceptions and understanding of the Quad. The Quad Leaders Meeting Tokyo 2022 website, launched by Japan as part of its hosting role this year, is a step in the right direction. The website includes a history of the Quad, working group information, as well as joint statements and fact sheets of all Quad leader's meetings so far. But since the Japanese government hosts this website, it risks becoming obsolete for the next leaders’ meeting if it isn’t updated. Clearer and more strategic communication would strengthen the Quad, ensuring that the region understands its aims and goals, and how it hopes to secure the Indo-Pacific.

Convincing the region and following through

The Indo-Pacific remains divided on the Quad. Since the first meeting of the Quad on the sidelines of the 2007 ASEAN Regional Forum, the grouping has gone to lengths to ensure ASEAN centrality in the region. But Southeast Asia is only one region in the Indo-Pacific. We finally saw a greater commitment to the Pacific Islands at this year's meeting, only after the China-Solomon Islands security agreement. While this is a step in the right direction, it is a little too late and further exemplifies that the Quad is only playing catch up to China’s movements in the region. The Quad's focus on non-traditional security aligns with ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum. Both focus on non-traditional security issues, such as maritime security and climate change, issues that are becoming increasingly linked. The 2018 Pacific Islands Forum Boe Declaration, which Australia signed, outlines that “climate change remains the single greatest threat”. China isn’t the only concern of states in the region. For many, climate change is the biggest threat. The Quad is well-placed to combine efforts to address climate change and maritime security across the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

One of the most exciting commitments to come out of the latest Quad meeting is the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, which aims to combat illegal fishing and assist with humanitarian and disaster responses. As Phil Citowicki highlights, it will “harness commercially available data using existing technologies such as radio-frequency technologies”. This partnership pairs well with the Quad Satellite Data Portal, which merges the four countries’ satellite data resources on Earth Observations to help them better track climate change, maritime security and natural disasters. These initiatives demonstrate the interconnectedness of the Quad working groups on climate change, cyber, space, and critical and emerging technology.

The Quad’s focus on non-traditional security has seen it work together on vaccine production and distribution. However, the delay in delivering 1.2 billion vaccines globally by the end of 2022 has caused further concern over whether or not the Quad can live up to its hype. The first batch of vaccines leaving the Indian manufacturing facility will be released in the first half of this year. With the worst of the pandemic over for the Quad states, vaccine distribution must remain at the top of the Quad agenda. The Quad Vaccine Partnership and working group on COVID-19 response and health security emphasise the growing importance of non-traditional security issues. If the Quad follows through on its vaccine commitment to the region, they have an opportunity to become a staple in the regional architecture but if they don’t, the region will likely remain unconvinced about the benefits of the Quad and its ability to combat security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

Defining the Quad for the Indo-Pacific

The fluidity and vagueness of the Quad are both strengths and weaknesses. By not committing to a single issue, the grouping can adapt to issues and trends in the Indo-Pacific. However, this strength is ultimately outweighed by the corresponding weakness: the Quad’s ambiguity puts it at risk of becoming lost in a region of increasing acronyms, oversaturating the multilateral institution landscape. The Quad should be connected over more than just their mutual concern for China. It should unite to strengthen all types of security in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad has the potential to outlast its competition with China if it follows through on its commitments to the region. The Quad is well equipped to tackle threats to the Indo-Pacific region. However, it has set itself a packed agenda of commitments. All eyes will be on the Quad over the coming months. Clarifying its aims, working harder at convincing the rest of the Indo-Pacific of its purpose and following through on commitments is the key to unlocking the success and longevity of the Quad.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Kate Clayton is Research Officer at La Trobe Asia. Her research areas include Australia, China, the Pacific Islands and the United States. Her focus is on security, geopolitics and climate change. Image credit: Wikimedia.