The future of US alliances in Northeast Asia

Written by Emma Whitmyer

Seoul and Tokyo should begin preparing for a future in which they navigate regional challenges without a close ally who shares the same values.

East Asia9DLApril 1, 2025The future of US alliances in Northeast Asia, China, Japan, United States, South Korea, Trump, Vance, North Korea, Russia, US, Hyundai, Yoon Suk Yeol, Special Measure Agreement, Forces Korea, Emma Whitmyer, ASPI

How the Russia-North Korea alliance challenges China's strategic interests in Northeast Asia

Written by Anny Boc

Beijing’s passive approach only reflects its dilemma of balancing its regional interests with its need to preserve strategic ties with both Russia and North Korea, especially as the competition between China and the United States is likely to intensify.

New risks for Taiwan in Trump’s second term

Written by Rorry Daniels

For at least the next four years, downward pressure on the US-China relationship will prevent a breakthrough in cross-Taiwan Strait relations.

East Asia9DLJanuary 21, 20259DASHLINE, New risks for Taiwan in Trump's second term, Rorry Daniels, Trump, Taiwan, China

South Korea’s martial law moment: constitutional crisis, and the regional order

Written by Dr Seohee Park

This crisis represents more than a domestic Korean political drama; it tests the resilience of regional alliances and could accelerate broader geopolitical shifts in an increasingly complex Northeast Asian landscape.

East Asia9DLJanuary 6, 20259DASHLINE, Constitutional crisis and regional order: South Korea’s martial law moment, Seohee Park, South Korea, Korea, Yoon, Yoon government, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Yoon Suk-yeol, Yoon Suk Yeol, President Yoon Suk Yeol, President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, martial law, First Lady Kim Keon Hee, stock manipulation, corruption, People Power Party (PPP), Han Dong-hoon, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, National Assembly, Mencian principle, authoritarian, collective memory, Syngman Rhee’s anti-communist crackdowns, Park Chung-hee’s military dictatorship, Chun Doo-hwan, 1980 Gwangju Democracy Movement, national psyche, military, Yeouido, lawmakers, opposition, South Korea’s democracy, democracy, Constitutional Court, impeachment, bipartisan, Democratic Party (DP), Donald Trump, White House, regional stability, Shigeru Ishiba, Japan, Northeast Asia, diplomatic realignment, diplomatic, Korea passing, Chinese President Xi, Seoul-Tokyo rapprochement, semiconductor, trade, restrictions, Camp David summit, security cooperation, Lee Jae-myung, constitutional crisis, Moon Jae-in, North Korea, America First, Tokyo, Asian NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, ASEAN, allies, Korean Peninsula, US-Japan alliance, US-UK relationship, Quad, India, Australia, Official Security Assistance (OSA), Philippines, Indonesia, Mongolia, Djibouti, semiconductor supply chains, emerging technologies, impeachment of Acting President Han Duck-soo (Prime Minister)

Departing from isolationism: Japan’s emergence as a regional security actor

Written by Lionel Fatton

Amid China’s growing belligerence and strained Sino-Taiwanese relations, Tokyo is trapped in an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma. To solve it, Japan has resolved to become more engaged in regional security dynamics to reduce the risk of cross-strait conflict, thereby lowering the probability of entrapment.

East Asia9DLOctober 15, 2024Lionel Fatton, 9dashline, Departing from isolationism: Japan’s emergence as a regional security actor, Japan, defence, regional security, Taiwan, China, united states

Hong Kong’s arrest warrants and bounties and why this matters in the EU

Written by Anouk Wear

Novel threats from the Hong Kong government are already causing real consequences for Hong Kongers in the EU — activists and more ‘ordinary’ citizens alike — and they are creating new challenges for advocacy from civil society and diplomatic channels.

East Asia, Europe and the Indo-Pacific, Editor's Picks9DLOctober 11, 20249DASHLINE, Hong Kong’s arrest warrants and bounties and why this matters in the EU, Anouk Wear, Hong Kong, Hong Kong Protests, Hong Kong extradition bill, Hong Kong’s human rights situation, Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, Article 23 legislation, 2020 National Security Law, 2019 pro-democracy protest movement, EU countries, European Parliament, UN, United Nations, UN Human Rights Committee, UN Universal Periodic Review, China, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, international law, rules-based international order, human rights violations, Beijing, international human rights norms, international human rights language, arrest warrants, activists, Article 96, absconders, transnational repression, European Convention on Human Rights, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, American Convention on Human Rights, autonomous Hong Kong, bounties, Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office (HKETO), impunity, extraterritorial human rights violations, diaspora, Hong Kong activists, underground resistance, Taiwan Strait, undemocratic, EU jurisdictions

The yen's fluctuation and its geopolitical ripple effects: A new normal in Indo-Pacific

Written by Dr Seohee Park

Beyond its borders, the yen’s fluctuations have sent ripples throughout the Indo-Pacific region. As regional economies are also influenced by the yen’s depreciation, the spectre of competitive devaluations looms large.

From equidistance to engagement: The evolution of Russia’s Korea strategy

Written by Anthony V. Rinna

As long as Russia refrains from taking any steps in its defence cooperation with North Korea that directly threaten South Korea, there is still a chance that Moscow can leave room for at least a partial restoration of ties with Seoul.

Editor's Picks, East Asia9DLAugust 13, 20249DASHLINE, From equidistance to engagement: the evolution of Russia’s Korea Strategy, Anthony v. Rinna, Russia, DPRK, ROK, South Korea, North Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pyongyang, comprehensive strategic partnership, North Korea-Russia ties, Kremlin, strategy of diplomatic equidistance, equidistance, regional security, Korean Peninsula, Moscow, Seoul, Mikhail Gorbachev’s Krasnoyarsk Declaration, Roh Tae-woo’s Nordpolitik, Nordpolitik, Soviet Union, rapprochement, US, China, Cold War, strategic cooperative partnership, unfriendly, Ukraine, weapon's exports, Cha Du Hyeogn, Russian Far East, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), US’ Northeast Asia alliance network, sanctions relief, economic cooperation, Korea International Trade Association, trade, Georgy Zinoviev, friendliest of unfriendly countries, NATO, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, energy, energy imports, Korea Trade Promotion Corporation (KOTRA), natural gas, South Korea’s energy dependence on Russia, coal imports, Lim Soo-suk, UN Security Council

NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership

Written by Emma Chanlett-Avery

A decisive shift in US policy towards isolationism and “America First” could disrupt or downgrade ‘trans-Atlantic’ and Indo-Pacific alliances.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia, Most Popular9DLAugust 8, 20249DASHLINE, Emma Chanlett-Avery, NATO and Northeast Asia: A growing partnership, NATO, NATO Summit, Washington, Biden administration, Joe Biden, foreign policy, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, White House, the Indo-Pacific Partners (IPP), Russia’s aggression, China’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine, China, Russia, Ukraine, NATO-IPP relationship, Northeast Asia, European allies, Asian democracies, international liberal order, Tokyo, Seoul, South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, information security, counter-piracy, China as a strategic challenge, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Moscow, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Yoon Suk Yeol, NATO Summit in Madrid, sanctions, humanitarian aid, defence industry, Poland, arms exports, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, DPRK, anti-aircraft systems, Beijing, Putin-Kim summit, nuclear weapons, missiles, Pyongyang, Minilaterals, US-South Korea-Japan, US-Japan-Philippines, AUKUS, Quad, Biden-Harris administration, Donald Trump, isolationism, US Congress, GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance, defence planners, America First

Mending trilateral cooperation amid differences: Japan-ROK-China

Written by Daria Kurushina

Whether the driver is counterbalancing China’s influence in the region, addressing economic unfairness and trade barriers, criticising the expansion of the US trilateral alliance systems in the region, or improving diplomatic ties, the three countries have too much in common to neglect their interdependence.

East Asia9DLJuly 18, 20249DASHLINE, Daria Kurushina, Mending trilateral cooperation amid differences: Japan-ROK-China, Japan, ROK, South Korea, CHina, Trilateral, centre of gravity, geostrategic competition, Republic of Korea, regional dynamism, regional dynamics, Japan-ROK-China Trilateral Summit, Trilateral Summit, security, economy, military, US alliance system in the Asia-Pacific, United States, Taiwan Strait, Northeast Asia, historic grievances, wastewater, Fukushima’s wastewater, wastewater release, Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, trade dependencies, Free Trade Agreement, FTA, wartime forced labour compensation, Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Korea-China 2+2 Diplomatic and Security Dialogue, Korea-China Export Control Dialogue, 2023 Camp David summit, united states, tariffs, Chinese EV, solar panels, and battery industries, standards, non-discriminatory regional trade, Korean Peninsula, peace, prosperity, North Korea, nuclear, spy satellite, Russia-North Korea partnership pact, Moscow, Pyongyang, US allies, Japanese seafood products, seafood imports, trilateral diplomacy, free trade negotiations, people-to-people exchange, public health, ageing society, population control, low fertility trap, population halving by 2100, demographic shifts, childcare support, parental leave, healthcare, demographic national emergency, nuclear threats, North Korean missile and nuclear threats, defence spending, Ministry of Population Strategy Planning, dependency ratio, eldery, New Dimension, counterbalancing, olive branch, overcapacity issues

China’s global security blueprint — implications for Western security agency

Written by Bernardo Mariani

Mindful of the fragilities surfacing in the international order, and tapping into widespread discontent in the Global South, China has come forward with a vision to reshape the global security architecture. Its security blueprint differs, both in principles and practice, from Western notions of a rules-based international order.

East Asia, Editor's Picks9DLMay 22, 20249dashline, China’s global security blueprint — implications for the Western security agency, Bernardo Mariani, China, security, Global Security Initiative (GSI), united states, Global security, western security agency, Xi Jingping

In Dialogue: Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and William Yang on Taiwan

In our latest In Dialogue, our colleague Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy talks about Taiwan's upcoming leadership transition and likely foreign policy priorities for the new administration with William Yang, a freelance correspondent for Voice of America.

East Asia9DLMay 17, 2024In Dialogue, Taiwan, Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, William Yang, Europe, China, European Union, Taiwan Strait, In Dialogue: Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and William Yang on Taiwan

Charting the future: US elections and the evolving US-Japan alliance

Written by Dr Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp

In Japan’s business sector, the speculative phrase “moshi tora”, meaning “if Trump” has become widespread, indicating various industrial scenarios developed in the Japanese business sector for the possibility of a Trump presidency.

The Japanese yen in a turbulent global economy

Written by Dr Seohee Park

Japan’s currency policy will continue to be a subject of international scrutiny as it is intertwined with the country’s strategic choices in an interconnected global economy.

East Asia9DLApril 18, 2024The Japanese yen in a turbulent global economy, Seohee Park, 9DASHLINE, yen, Japanese yen, JPY, dollar, dollarisation, de-dollarisation, US Dollar, currencies, trade, economy, depreciation, appreciation, exchange rate, export, corporate profits, consumer prices, global financial sector, inflation rates, inflation, central bank policies, Swiss franc, safe-haven currency, low sovereign risk, economic stability, monetary policies, interest rate hikes, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, lost decade, 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis, Asian Financial Crisis, asset price collapse, 2008 global financial crisis, 2011 East Japan earthquake, Mrs. Watanabe, investors, housewives, international investors, trade surplus, COVID-19 pandemic, Bank of Japan, interest rates, inflationary pressure, raw materials, debtors, Keynesian economics, animal spirits, John Maynard Keynes, deflationary stagnation, stagflation, savings, taxation, fiscal, Abenomics, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Plaza Accord of 1985, Plaza Accord, G5, currency markets, ageing population, wage growth, deflation

South Korea's midterm election tests democratic resilience

Written by Dr Hannes B. Mosler

The short-term challenge of this election is to prevent a conservative majority in parliament, lest the current autocratic episode in South Korean democracy turn into a post-democratic vortex.

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BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future

Written by Kelly Antoinette Khyriem

As criticisms propel the initiative towards a BRI 2.0, if China actively addresses and mitigates risks associated with its projects by enhancing transparency and accountability frameworks, it has the potential to outpace the emerging alternatives that are challenging the BRI.

East Asia9DLMarch 29, 20249dashline, BRI 2.0: Reflecting on the past, charting the future, Kelly Antoinette Khyriem, Xi Jinping, China, PRC, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Maritime Silk Road, digital infrastructure, trade policy coordination, financial cooperation, multilateral institutions, Memoranda of Understanding, geopolitical strategy, domestic development, US-led international order, ‘string of pearls’ theory, Chinese investments, naval bases, Indian Ocean, crucial shipping routes, debt-trap diplomacy, BRI-related loans, Sri Lanka, economic sovereignty, debt trap narrative, governance deficiencies, corruption, 1Malaysia Development Berhad, 1MDB, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, human rights abuses, BRI infrastructure, BRI commitments, large-scale infrastructure projects, sustainability, ecology, carbon dioxide emissions, environmental implications, EU, US, India, transparency, labour rights, EU-Asia Connectivity Strategy, Global Gateway Initiative, Blue Dot Network, Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, PGII, G20 Leaders' Summit, hydropower plants, solar farms, 5G, public-private partnerships, Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Digital Silk Road, e-commerce initiatives, BRI 2.0, Green Belt and Road, renewable energy, Clean Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, Hambantota Port, Kenya, Zambia, Malaysia, debt management, digital connectivity, debt burdens, renewable energy investment, AIIB

US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation: Overcoming the populist threat

Written by James Kaizuka

Deeper institutionalisation of security cooperation, bilaterally between Japan and South Korea and trilaterally also including the United States, can head off all of these threats and ensure that the ‘inaugural’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue is not the ‘only’ Indo-Pacific Dialogue.

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Xi’s purge and corruption in the PLA

Written by Lyle J. Morris

Corruption in China’s military is not a case of a “few bad apples”. Rather, it is indicative of a PLA that has systemic problems with corruption whereby kickbacks and buying and selling of promotions have been standard practice for decades.

East Asia9DLMarch 25, 20249dashline, lyle J morris, Corruption in the PLA and Xi’s purge, People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Chinese President Xi Jinping, China-watching community, National People’s Congress (NPC), PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), China’s conventional and nuclear missile programme, Gen. Ding Laihang, PLA Air Force, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Liu Shiquan, China North Industries Group, China Aerospace Science, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp, chair of weapons manufacturer China North Industries Group, China Aerospace Science & Industry Corp executive Wang Changqing, Defence Minister, Li Shangfu, Qin Gang, national security violations, Wu Guohua, the deputy commander of the PLARF, General Armaments Department, Major General Li Mingquan, General Equipment Support Department of the General Armaments Department, EDD, PLARF, SOE, Lin Biao, CIA, Inner Mongolia, Sino-Soviet border conflict, Cold War, Mao, Directive 1, Directive 2, James Mulvenon, graft, military readiness, China’s nuclear strategy, PLA leadership, whistle blower, whistle-blower, China’s military bureaucracy, corruption, i’s senior technocrats, Xi’s purge and corruption in the PLA