Quiet for a change: the Marcos approach so far

Written by Angelica Mangahas

When it comes to China, Marcos has been more provocative than Duterte but also more discreet than Aquino.

Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?

Written by Corey Lee Bell and Elena Collinson

The approaching milestone on Bougainville’s journey to independence could once again see China escalating its efforts.

Pacific9DLApril 6, 20239DashLine, Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family?, Corey Lee Bell, Elena Collinson, Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, independence, referendum, Bougainvilleans, civil war, Bougainville Civil War, self-determination, territorial integrity, sovereignty, separatism, China, security partnerships, ethnopolitical tensions, geostrategic rivalries, Pacific, geopolitics, Australia, neocolonialist, Canberra, security interests, Labor government, Plan for a Stronger Pacific Family, ratification, Prime Minister James Marape, election, autonomy, Bougainville Autonomous Region, Panguna mine, parliament, representation, Governor-General Bob Dadae, separatist movements, Australia’s “Pacific Family”, Buka, Port Moresby, unilateral independence, declaration of independence, Australia’s inner arc, security partner, Comprehensive Strategic and Economic Partnership, Bilateral Security Treaty, Taurama Barracks, Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko, Joint Initiative at Lombrum Naval Base, Chinese state media, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles, President Ishmael Toroama, Solomon Islands archipelago, sea lines, United States, Beijing, Honiara, Kolombangara Island, naval diplomacy, then-President John Momis, Bougainville China Cooperation Committee, trade, Bougainville Import Export Corporation, Scylla, Charybdis, tourism, agriculture, mining, Bougainville Revolutionary Army, Will the decision on Bougainville’s independence rupture Australia’s Pacific Family

2023: More tumultuous times ahead for Sri Lanka?

9DASHLINE asks several experts how they assess the prospects for political and economic recovery in 2023 after the turbulence of last year.

South Asia9DLFebruary 2, 20232023: More tumultuous times ahead for Sri Lanka?, 9DashLine, Sri Lanka, economic crisis, anti-government protests, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, economic recovery, RAJNI GAMAGE, Unsustainable debt, balance of payment challenges, bankrupt, foreign debt obligations, Mass protests, World Bank, poverty, IMF, tax reforms, state-owned enterprise reforms, geopolitics, balancing game, India, Japan, Western powers, China, debt restructuring, democracy, police surveillance, arrests, political opposition, emergency laws, military, rule of law, ASANGA ABEYAGOONASEKARA, Rajapaksas, powder keg, people’s uprising, Ranil Wickremasinghe, iron fist, Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), economic hardship, law and order, Ukraine war, oil prices, Colombo, financial assistance, political-economic crisis, internal and external geopolitical shocks, BHAGYA SENARATNE, currency default, youth-driven protests, Economic stability, political stability, popular mandate, legitimate president, Extended Fund Facility (EFF), inflation, accountability, attitudinal change

2023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons

With Australian elections ushering in a change of government and Aotearoa New Zealand’s planned parliamentary elections this year, 9DASHLINE sought the views of several experts on the state of both nations’ foreign and defence policies.

Pacific9DLJanuary 30, 20232023: Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia — foreign policies between hegemons, 9dashline, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, New Zealand, China, United States, Australian elections, parliamentary elections, foreign and defence policies, geopolitics, NICHOLAS ROSS SMITH, Jacinda Ardern, trading partner, security relationship, middle-ground position, Wang Yi, NZ Labour Party, Wellington, National party, Christopher Luxon, putative Indo-Pacific ‘hedging’ strategy, MELISSA CONLEY TYLER, import restrictions, Prime Minister Albanese, President Xi, G20 Summit, China’s economic coercion, climate change policies, clean energy, Pacific Island countries, 2026 UN Conference of the Parties, JASON YOUNG, supply chain resilience, social cohesion, economic resilience, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, Japan, United Kingdom, Partners in the Blue Pacific, President Biden, APEC Summit, China’s Covid restrictions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s activities in the South China Sea, liberal-democratic Western bloc, Moscow, Beijing, geopolitical shatterbelt, Taiwan, Canberra, Tokyo, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Nanaia Mahuta, Free Trade Agreements (FTA), European Union, trade diversification, anti-nuclear advocacy

2023: The prospect of Pacific Island agency

9DASHLINE asks several experts for their assessment of the prospects for Pacific Island agency in 2023 international politics, especially beyond the 'big power influence' by the US and China that has so often been written about in 2022.

Pacific9DLJanuary 25, 20232023: The prospects of Pacific Island agency, 9DashLine, Pacific Islands, climate action, US-China competition for hegemony, Indo-Pacific security dynamics, big power influence, PRIESTLEY HABRU, heterogeneous, colonial, colonialism, great power competition, China, The Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, United Nations General Assembly, democracy, Taipei, Beijing, economic development, former Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, US President Joe Biden, US-Pacific Partnership Summit, Washington DC, Fiji, Sitiveni Rabuka, Australian Labor government, Australia, Pacific Island Forum (PIF), Suva, geopolitics, JOANNE WALLIS, UK, strategic competition, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, climate change, Pacific Islands Forum’s ‘Blue Pacific’ narrative, Blue Pacific, ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ (PBP) initiative, New Zealand, Japan, MAIMA KORO, Samoa, US-Pacific Partnership Declaration, HENRIETTA MCNEILL, South Korea, European Union, Cook Islands, Niue, French territories, Micronesian states, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent

2023: Where is Pakistan heading?

2022 was a difficult year for Pakistan: A humanitarian crisis sparked by devastating floods, the assassination attempt against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and a faltering economy. Growing political instability also prompted US President Joe Biden to call Pakistan one of the most dangerous countries in the world, characterising it as “nuclear weapons without cohesion”.

The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan

Written by Reuben Steff and Martin Jirušek

Should war or a system of neo-Cold War style blocs emerge, it will be US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that form the new frontlines and that have the most to lose.

Pacific9DLNovember 23, 20229DashLine, Reuben Steff, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Martin Jirušek, Taiwan, US National Security Strategy, geopolitics, Europe, Indo-Pacific, super-order, security order, rules-based institutionalism, Moscow, China, USA, diplomacy, military, rebalancing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise, Cold War, ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, alliance, Washington, networked’ security architecture, minilateral, multilateral, defence, allies, National Defense Strategy, Beijing, zero-sum, tit-for-tat, AUKUS trilateral security pact, Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Australia, UK, United Kingdom, Japan, India, containment, trade war, microchips, blocs, Southeast Asia, South Pacific, Middle East, shatterbelts, nuclear proliferation, southeast asia, confidence building, Kyiv, Emmanuel Macron, peace, France, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Taipei, Pentagon, White House, de-escalation, Joe Biden, President Biden, ‘One China’ policy, NATO, Admiral Philip Davidson, US Congress, Admiral Mike Gilday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, invasion, Michael Beckley and, Hal Brands, peaking power trap, UN

A domestic audience for a global spotlight: Indonesia’s G20 presidency and the Bali Summit

Written by Radityo Dharmaputra and Demas Nauvarian

The Global South can play an essential role as the host of a peace forum after the G20 Summit, and Indonesia — following its historical role in the Bandung Conference and the Non-Aligned Movement — can be the initiator of such a forum.

Editor's Picks9DLNovember 15, 20229DashLine, A domestic audience for a global spotlight: Indonesia’s G20 presidency and the Bali Summit, Radityo Dharmaputra, Demas Nauvarian, Indonesia, G20, Bali Summit, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), ASEAN, MIKTA, BRICS, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Australia, post-pandemic recovery, global health, energy transition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Global South, Bandung Conference, Non-Aligned Movement, Lowy Institute, Megawati Sukarnoputri, PDI-P, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Demokrat, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Kyiv, Moscow, Evan Laksmana, former President Yudhoyono, UN, G7 Summit, East Asia, economic growth, food crisis, energy crisis, economic recession, geopolitics, UN General Assembly, grain initiative, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, middle-power, Multilateralism, peace

Why India won’t break from Russia.. yet

Written by Ian Hall

New Delhi clearly believes — rightly — that India’s relationship with the United States, underpinned by a shared interest in better managing China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, is sufficiently robust to weather disagreement over this war.

Pacific9DLNovember 7, 20229DashLine, Ian Hall, Why India won’t break from Russia… yet, India, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-China bloc, Russia's aggression, Russian gas, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine war, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister Modi, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), SCO Summit, Vladimir Putin, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Russia’s invasion, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation, Food Prices, UN Security Council, Security Council Resolution, annexation, UN General Assembly (UNGA), COVID-19, post-pandemic recovery, Indian economy, Sino-Indian border, Himalayas, New Delhi, Moscow, Kremlin, Beijing, United States, Indo-Pacific, China’s coercion, humanitarian crisis, Indian students, media, diplomacy, Soviet, military hardware, S-400 air defence systems, Pakistan, Alliance, allies, multipolar order, bloc, nuclear, geopolitics, China challenge, nuclear submarine, South Asia, Indian Ocean, client state

The EU ventures into the strategic “jungle”

Written by Mohammadbagher Forough

While tropes such as ‘values’ and ‘standards’ are promoted as the main feature of the Global Gateway’s connectivity agenda, African countries (and many others in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America) will not overlook the fact that this promoted feature contrasts uneasily with neo-colonialist-sounding dichotomies like ‘garden/jungle’.

Faultlines9DLOctober 27, 20229DashLine, Mohammadbagher Forough, The EU ventures into the strategic “Jungle”, European Diplomatic Academy, Josep Borrell, Borrell, Vice-President Borrell, HRVP, garden, jungle, diplomacy, European Union, European Commission, geoeconomic, Global Gateway, Western, Europe, US security, Russian energy, Asia, Pivot to Asia, Biden administration, Indo-Pacific, Russian war against Ukraine, Ukraine, Russia, strategic autonomy, geopolitics, Ursula von der Leyen, China, EU’s Chips Act, John Keats, Germany, China strategy, Olaf Scholz, business lobby, France, Global Gateway initiative, EU Global Gateway Initiative, Europe’s Global Gateway, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), supply chains, resilience, shared communities of interest, India, Africa, Cold War, anti-colonialism, Middle East, Latin America, neo-colonialist, Robert Kagan, colonialism, racism, Joseph Conrad’s “Heart of Darkness”, Putin, Edward Said, decolonial

EU-Taiwan ties: Towards resilient global value chains

Written by Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy

Addressing strategic dependencies and increasing resilience in the face of an assertive China by expanding cooperation with Taiwan has become a more sustainable path in the perception of many in Brussels.

Papua New Guinea in 2022: Key issues and future challenges

Written by Teddy Winn

The challenge for the incoming government will be to continue upholding PNG’s foreign policy practice of ‘friends to all, enemies to none’ while not destabilising existing bilateral arrangements the country has with its regional partners, including its closest and long-time partner, Australia.

In Conversation: James Borton on 'Dispatches from the South China Sea: Navigating to Common Ground'

9DASHLINE recently sat down with James Borton to discuss his fascinating new book Dispatches from the South China Sea: Navigating to Common Ground, in which he argues that the South China Sea can become a body of water that unites, rather than divides.

Assessing the Biden Administration’s policy toward the Indo-Pacific

Written by Jacob Stokes

Biden’s prioritisation of allies and close partners could leave the rest of the region’s states unsure about their role and those of the region’s legacy multilateral institutions, such as ASEAN and the East Asia Summit.

China’s next-generation tech firms are about to challenge the US dollar

Written by Abishur Prakash

From currency to navigation, the mainly American systems that have guided the world for decades are now being challenged. Right now, because all eyes are on TikTok and Huawei, the next generation of Chinese technology firms are quietly emerging unnoticed.

Faultlines9DLNovember 23, 2020China, Cyber, Artificial Intelligence, Yuan, Digital, Currency, technology, geopolitics