2023: The future of CEE-China relations

9DASHLINE asked a select group of experts to assess Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries’ relations with China and how they expect them to evolve in 2023.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 16, 20239dashline, 2023: The future of CEE-China relations, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, VUK VUKSANOVIC, VALENTINA VENGUST, STEFAN VLADISAVLJEV, Central and Eastern European, CEE, China, 17+1, 14+1, Beijing, 2022, 2023, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, PRC-CEE, PRC-CEE relations, economic cooperation, security concerns, critical infrastructure, high-tech industry, backsliding, democratic backsliding, coercion, Lithuania, EU common market, 'no-limits' friendship, Moscow, 16+1 summit, Huo Yuzhen, Estonia, Latvia, Jiang Yu, US, united states, Taiwan, security guarantor, NATO, China-CEE format, Czech Republic, Greece, Chinese investments, security concern, security guarantees, Washington, Belarus, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Serbia, Hungary, Middle Corridor, Albania, North Macedonia, cooling-off period, joint statement, territorial integrity, sovereignty, diplomatic missions, Baltic countries, EU-China relations, China-CEE cooperation, cooperation mechanism, Sino-Serbian cooperation, territorial disputes, free trade agreement

2023: The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific

As a reinvigorated Quad steps up its engagement, some observers have called for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to establish a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific via a standing maritime force. But how viable is this idea?

Pacific9DLJanuary 11, 20239dashline, The future of the QUAD in the Indo-Pacific, Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, standing maritime force, Blake Herzinger, United States, military, vaccination, supply chains, climate, maritime security, Maritime Domain Awareness initiative, Quad vaccine partnership, Beijing, China, Australia, India, Japan, Horn of Africa, military alliance, Indian Ocean, New Delhi, South or East China Seas, East China Seas, South China Sea, navy, Combined Task Force (CTF) 151, Gulf of Aden, maritime trade, geoeconomic, Pacific islands, Canberra, Pacific arc, Retired US Admiral Gary Roughead, Pentagon, Washington, defence planning, sea control, Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, rule of law, sovereignty, territorial integrity, freedom of navigation and overflight, Quad Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief meeting, Asian NATO, Quad Leaders’ Meeting, Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Taiwan Straits, Korean peninsula, ASEAN, Canada, south korea, Taiwan

Attentive friends, busy enemies, and a bright future — 2023 for North Korea

Written by Benedikt Staar

North Korean politics are strongly influenced by the regime’s friends, its enemies, and its own ambitions. As it turns out, things look promising for Pyongyang on all three fronts.

Best of 2022: The Climate Crisis

In 2022, the Indo-Pacific region witnessed several devastating climate-related disasters, from floods in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh to heat waves and droughts in China. It is clear that the climate crisis has become an increasingly urgent global issue, and that concerted international action is necessary.

Faultlines9DLJanuary 3, 2023Best of 2022: The Climate Crisis, ASEAN leads the Indo-Pacific climate response, Clare Richardson-Barlow, Asean, indo-pacific, Net-Zero, South Asia must proactively prepare to face climate change, Manali Kumar, natural disasters, climate change, APOORVA JAIN, Building a case for disaster diplomacy in South Asia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bangladesh’s manoeuvring of climate change geopolitics, Rudabeh Shahid, Atlantic Council, Sirazoom Munira, Paris Climate goals, Dhaka, China's water security dilemma, Zenel Garcia, Philip Guerreiro, Water, Beijing, Environment, economy, society, water security, Competition and cooperation: India and China in the global climate regime, Miriam Prys-Hansen, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Simon Kaack, New Delhi, China, The World Needs Sino-American Climate Cooperation, Taylah Bland, Climate, Sino-American, Superpowers, Washington, Asia Society Policy Institute

Pakistan’s fatiguing interest in the IMF reform program

Written by Asad Ejaz Butt

While Pakistan does not have any alternate short-term options other than returning to the IMF, it can consider structural reforms, like targeted subsidies and rationalisation of current expenditure through fiscal prudence and better management of state resources.

South Asia9DLDecember 19, 20229dashline, Pakistan’s Fatiguing Interest in the IMF Reform Program, Asad Ejaz Butt, Pakistan, South Asian Voices, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Islamabad, IMF’s Pakistan program, economy, economic crisis, floods, flash floods, macro-fiscal stability, Ishaq Dar, Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, fiscal discipline, IMF headquarters, self-sufficiency, Washington, extended fund facility (EFF), staff-level agreement, fiscal and external imbalances, procyclical, economic indicators, account and fiscal deficits, long-term structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, bail-out, loan, loans, macroeconomic stability, commercial bank, banking, Imran Khan, PTI government, PTI, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), nudge, Fiscal and current account deficits, economic collapse, policy rate, monetary tightening prescription, tax, tax revenues, currency, devaluation, free-market and laissez-faire economics, cash, mortgage financing, inflation, business, fiscal deficits, expenditure, debt, debt servicing payments, rupee, rupee devaluation, exports, imports, remittances, oil imports, foreign exchange flexibility, subsidies, donor, donor and IMF fatigue, World Bank, Sri Lanka

Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s inaugural strategic dialogue partner

Written by Ridvan Kilic

Ultimately, in order to secure its maritime boundary in the North Natuna Sea, Indonesia needs the support of like-minded strategic partners from the Quad more than ever.

Pacific9DLDecember 12, 20229DashLine, Inviting Indonesia to become the Quad’s Inaugural Strategic Dialogue Partner, Ridvan Kilic, Indonesia, Quad, strategic dialogue partner, non-alignment, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, Jakarta, US-China hegemonic competition, US, China, Southeast Asia, North Natuna Sea, North Natuna Sea Exclusive Economic Zone, Exclusive Economic Zone, EEZ, sovereignty, strategic partnership, Quad countries, rules-based maritime order, Indo-Pacific, alignment, inaugural strategic dialogue partner, Joko Widodo, President Joko Widodo, Widodo, Jokowi, Global Maritime Fulcrum, GMF, economic cooperation, trade partners, Beijing, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, infrastructure development, regional maritime power, Indonesian navy, maritime security, nine-dash line, South China Sea, SCS, non-claimant state, gas field, oil and gas drilling, Garuda Shield exercise, Indonesian National Armed Forces, Nusantara, Natuna archipelago, Makassar Strait, air force, navy capabilities, regional military capabilities, Washington, advanced fighter jets, Chinese assertiveness, Batam, Anthony Blinken, Retno Marsudi, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, freedom of navigation, japan, Natuna Islands, growing military build-up, military equipment and technology, bilateral relationship, india, Shared Vision of Maritime Cooperation, Andaman Sea, Sabang Deep Seaport, Aceh, Australia, Canberra, comprehensive strategic partnership, 2021 Australia-Indonesia security deal, Albanese Labor Government, Australia-Indonesia strategic partnership, Bahasa, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Penny Wong, Anthony Albanese, military training, joint exercises, military hardware, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Indo-Pacific Partnership Maritime Domain Awareness, IPMDA

Japan’s ‘history problem’ lingers on after Abe

Written by Chris Deacon

Almost eight decades after the end of the Second World War, the legacy of Japan’s military expansionism and colonial rule across the Pacific continues to haunt its contemporary international politics, particularly within Northeast Asia.

Faultlines9DLDecember 8, 20229DashLine, Chris Deacon, Japan’s ‘history problem’ lingers on after Abe, Japan, South Korea, WWII, military expansionism, colonial rule, Northeast Asia, bilateral antagonism, Beijing, South Korea-Japan relations, wartime forced labour, Tokyo, Seoul, regional relations, alliance politics, Asia Pacific, United States, Washington, China, North Korea, historical antagonisms, growing nationalism, historical revisionism, Abe Shinzō, Shinzo Abe, post-Abe era, nationalism, revisionism, Japanese school textbooks, comfort women, Japanese government, constitutional restrictions, armed forces, defence cooperation, Kishi Nobusuke, foreign relations, Yasukuni Shrine, Park Geun-hye, Dokdo/Takeshima, Yasukuni, Moon Jae-in, compensation for victims, trade restrictions, Kishida Fumio, Fumio Kishida, revisionist policies, wartime labourers, UNESCO, Sado mine complex, Yoon Suk-yeol, mutual antagonism, national identity, Japanese national identity, Korea fatigue, national identity narratives, 2015 ‘comfort women’ agreement, nation-building narratives, bilateral cooperation, Japan-South Korea bilateral cooperation, identity constructs

The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals

Written by Alice Dell’Era

From Europe’s perspective, these potential trilateral and/or minilateral consultative mechanisms could give European actors the space to voice their own outlook, ensuring that European viewpoints are incorporated into Japanese and American perspectives.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific, East Asia9DLNovember 25, 20229DashLine, The US-Japan Alliance and Europe: Furthering the existing web of trilaterals and minilaterals, Alice Dell’Era, US-Japan, security partnership, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Cold War, Japan, US, United States, allies, bilateralism, bilateralism-plus, trilateral, minilateral, minilateral regional mechanisms, bilateral alliance, Republic of Korea, ROK, Australia, India, Europe, Biden administration, France, UK, Germany, Abe Cabinet, Arc of Freedom and Prosperity Initiative’, European partners, 2+2, dynamic strategic partnership, Japan-France Comprehensive Maritime Dialogue, Working Group on the Indo-Pacific, Reciprocal Access Agreement, RAA, extra-regional partner, Tokyo, Berlin, Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, defence, Franco-Japanese bilateral exercises, joint military training, goodwill training, Indo-Pacific deployment, Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force, ASDF, quadrilateral, Washington, La Perouse, ARC21, US-Japan 2021 ANNUALEX, ANNUALEX, US-Japan Alliance-Plus

The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan

Written by Reuben Steff and Martin Jirušek

Should war or a system of neo-Cold War style blocs emerge, it will be US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that form the new frontlines and that have the most to lose.

Pacific9DLNovember 23, 20229DashLine, Reuben Steff, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Martin Jirušek, Taiwan, US National Security Strategy, geopolitics, Europe, Indo-Pacific, super-order, security order, rules-based institutionalism, Moscow, China, USA, diplomacy, military, rebalancing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise, Cold War, ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, alliance, Washington, networked’ security architecture, minilateral, multilateral, defence, allies, National Defense Strategy, Beijing, zero-sum, tit-for-tat, AUKUS trilateral security pact, Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Australia, UK, United Kingdom, Japan, India, containment, trade war, microchips, blocs, Southeast Asia, South Pacific, Middle East, shatterbelts, nuclear proliferation, southeast asia, confidence building, Kyiv, Emmanuel Macron, peace, France, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Taipei, Pentagon, White House, de-escalation, Joe Biden, President Biden, ‘One China’ policy, NATO, Admiral Philip Davidson, US Congress, Admiral Mike Gilday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, invasion, Michael Beckley and, Hal Brands, peaking power trap, UN

Nguyen Phu Trong’s Beijing trip: Safeguarding regime-state security

Written by Phan Xuan Dung

As Vietnam’s most senior politician and the architect of the ‘bamboo diplomacy’ concept, Trong should promote efforts to update Vietnam’s strategic thinking, thereby enabling the country to bend and sway in the current geopolitical headwinds with greater flexibility.

Power Politics9DLNovember 18, 20229DashLine, Nguyen Phu Trong’s Beijing trip: Safeguarding regime-state security, Phan Xuan Dung, Nguyen Phu Trong, Trong, 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, Vietnamese Communist Party, VCP, Beijing, China, Hanoi, Xi Jinping, Vietnam-China comprehensive strategic partnership, regime-state security, Russia-Ukraine war, Biden administration, authoritarian regimes, political stability, political survival, Marxist-Leninist one-party state, vietnam, Doi Moi economic reform, Doi Moi, united states, international relations, Olaf Scholz, Jacinda Ardern, Joe Biden, President Biden, comprehensive strategic partnership, bamboo diplomacy, post-Cold War era, pluralistic democracy, colour revolutions, US-led liberal democracy, Washington, peaceful evolutions, Biden's National Security Strategy, non-democracies, international rules-based order, socialist democracy, Marxist-Leninist ideology, socialist regime, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, South China Sea, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, bilateral trade, Vietnamese imports, export diplomacy, supply chains, domestic political legitimacy, human rights, Obama, regime change

Western Indian Ocean: The missing piece in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Written by Rushali Saha

The Biden administration’s expansion of the geographic definition of the Indo-Pacific to include the entire Indian Ocean, while a positive first step, is merely a symbolic move unless complemented with concrete policy action.

Pacific9DLOctober 13, 20229DASHLINE, Western Indian Ocean: The missing piece in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, RUSHALI SAHA, Indo-Pacific, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Sub-Saharan Africa, White House, Biden, Department of Defense, Central Command, Africa, China, US, US-China, Indian Ocean, United States, Cocos Islands, Keeling Islands, Comoros Archipelago, Red Sea, East Africa, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Asia, Middle East, WIO, energy, Washington, USPACOM, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Quad, South Asia, Afghanistan, Gulf Cooperation Council, Djibouti, hydrocarbons, People Liberation Army Navy, Camp Lemonnier, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Madagascar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, FOIP, France, India, SAGAR, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, IPEF, Maritime Doctrine, Mozambique, Seychelles, Iran, Indian Ocean Commission, UAE, African Union, blue economy, Sagarmala Project, Delhi, Uganda, New Delhi, Modi, Mauritius, Vanilla Islands, Saint-Denis, Reunion Island, Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund, Trump, Sri Lanka, Israel, National Security Strategy, Diplomat Risk Intelligence, South Asian Voices

In Conversation with Ali Wyne

This month we enjoy a fascinating conversation with Ali Wyne where we discuss his new book America's Great Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition.

Slowing the escalatory spiral over Taiwan

Written by Amanda Hsiao and Ivy Kwek

A long-lasting solution on Taiwan will be difficult to realise anytime soon. However, avoiding miscalculation and slowing the escalatory spiral that the parties are currently engaged in are achievable outcomes that Taipei, Washington, and Beijing should prioritise.

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Seoul cannot have a credible Indo-Pacific strategy without Taiwan

Written by Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Tereza Novotna

Much of this is also about how far Seoul will be prepared to join many of its partners in working with Taiwan. In other words, if South Korea wants to play a bigger role in the Indo-Pacific, it is high time that Seoul joins the ‘Taiwan club’.

East Asia9DLSeptember 9, 20229DashLine, Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Tereza Novotna, Seoul cannot have a credible Indo-Pacific strategy without Taiwan, Republic of Korea, south korea, China, PRC, Taiwan, japan, Shinzo Abe, USA, Yoon Suk-yeol, semiconductors, Nancy Pelosi, Indo-Pacific, Beijing, Seoul, Taiwan Strait, Tokyo, middle power, Security, Washington, Park Jin, india, Australia, defence, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, EU, Brussels, European Parliament, Covid, Global Cooperation and Training Framework, GCTF, Taipei, quad, Nobuo Kishi, US-Japan Security Consultative Committee, Supply Chain Resilience Initiative, Pelosi, People’s Republic of China, Korea, South Korea, Japan, India, COVID, COVID19, Taiwan Model, Europe, Xi Jinping, hybrid warfare, cyberattacks, THAAD, Quad, Quaderateral Security Dialogue, SCRI, Delhi, Taiwan Club, Russia, Ukraine

China refuses to ‘acknowledge’ US one-China policy

Written by Pak K. Lee and Anisa Heritage

In order to minimise the chances of conflict with Beijing, Washington must now clarify its one-China policy rather than maintain strategic ambiguity over the matter of Taiwan’s indeterminate status.

Going global: Beijing’s bid to rewrite the rules of international security

Written by Sam Bresnick

If Beijing succeeds in impelling Global Security Initiative partners to revise existing security norms and arrangements (certainly a big ‘if’), the United States and its allies could find themselves increasingly constrained.

Will friction over Taiwan spark a US-China war?

Written by Rorry Daniels

Although there is an optimistic case to make that Taiwan is not the kindling for a great power ‘bonfire’, the tenuous bargain that has protected cross-Taiwan Strait peace and stability for 40 years is under intensified threat and requires mindful attention to preserve the peace in US-China and cross-Strait relations.

The US should prioritise the Indo-Pacific over Ukraine, but the clash of interests should not be overstated

Written by Áine Cooke

The US must ensure that it remains competitive by enhancing its military capabilities to deter an invasion of Taiwan, as well as by extending its diplomatic reach to counter China’s extensive regional engagement, and by formulating a comprehensive economic and climate policy.