Hold on tight! The US, Indo-Pacific, and expectations for a second Trump term

Written by Blake H. Berger

If Trump prevails in the 2024 election, and if his first term indicates what the region can expect from a second one, hold tight because it will get ugly.

The strawman defence is torching Taiwan’s military

Written by Michael Lostumbo

Taiwan should assess its existing force and all future investments and evaluate them from the lens of their warfighting potential, which should be the primary focus for their military.

Balancing on fumes: What drives France in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Dylan Motin

France’s Indo-Pacific strategy mainly arises from the fear of China. Despite French official discourse, it is clearly on the American side of the containment fence and will remain there for the foreseeable future.

Evaluating South Korea's democratic backsliding

Written by Dr Mi-son Kim

The current state of South Korean politics suggests that the country is at a critical moment that could determine its fate: democratic backsliding or consolidation.

East Asia9DLOctober 9, 20239dashline, Evaluating South Korea's democratic backsliding, Dr Mi-son Kim, Park Geun-hye, South Korea, impeachment, abuse of power, corruption, Constitutional Court of Korea, candlelight protests, protests, demonstrations, democratic consolidation, President Park, partisan polarisation, concentration of power, Moon Jae-in, Yoon Suk-yeol, weak legislature, Park administration, opposition parties, Labour Reform Act, Service Industry Development Act, bipartisan bill, National Assembly Act, Saenuri Party, democratic transition, veto, Yoo Seung-min, cabinet appointments, presidential impeachment, Democratic Party, Supreme Prosecutor, Korean presidents, National Intelligence Service, Yoon administration, Han Dong-hoon, Park Geun-hye administration, personalist political systems, Kaesong Industrial Complex, North Korea, nuclear, US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Sewol ferry, Japan, hyper-partisan, hostile rhetoric, Lee Myung-bak, coercive state apparatuses, Board of Audit and Inspection, Anything but Moon (ABM), political volatility, democratic backsliding

Join us to foster informed discussions and bridge the gap between Europe and the Indo-Pacific

Calling scholars and analysts working on the Indo-Pacific – we are interested in your insights and ideas.

Join our growing network of international experts and help us shape the narrative around the world’s geopolitical centre of gravity.

News9DLOctober 6, 20239dashline, Indo-Pacific, Europe

Strategic competition in the South Pacific and its implications for New Zealand

Written by Dr Reuben Steff

While China’s activities are concerning, it should be made clear to Beijing that NZ’s and others’ responses in the security sphere are dependent on China’s approach to the region.

Zhuozhou flooding: Systemic shifts needed to counter the sacrificing of populations

Written by Dr Julia Teebken and Jiachang Tu

The sacrificing of certain parts of a population is not limited to China and is happening across the world already, which makes addressing underlying structural issues a global concern.

Editor's Picks9DLOctober 3, 20239dashline, Zhuozhou flooding: Systemic shifts needed to counter the sacrificing of populations, JULIA TEEBKEN, Jiachang Tu, extreme weather events, China, heat, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, flooding, flood, Zhuozhou, flood retention, Hebei Party Secretary Ni Yuefeng, social media, protest, flood protection, climate adaptation, Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), National Retention Basin Master Planning (NRBMP), retention basin areas, Xiaoqinghe, 2021 floods in Henan, Henan, natural hazard event, maladaptation, second National Adaptation Strategy (NAS II), climate resilience, urban-rural, Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM), 1980s Water Law, Flood Management Law, provincial and municipal governments, flood risk management, hongtouwenjian, Baoding, technocratic, policy incrementalism, inequalities, climate change, land development, urban expansion, sociopolitical tensions, 1998 mega-flood, urbanisation, water flow regulation services, flood regulation services, reservoirs, dams, population density, Haihe River, Ecosystem Function Conservation Areas (EFCAS), disaster risk reduction, hukou, urban, peri-urban, and rural regions, Julia Teebken

Running from China: China’s youth dream of leaving

Written by Dr Franziska Plümmer

The risks of brain drain and demographic change are looming over the heads of Beijing’s policymakers and business leaders, who are also increasingly incentivising Chinese students to come back from abroad.

Emerging Issues9DLOctober 2, 2023Franziska Plümmer, Dr Franziska Plümmer, Running from China: China’s youth dream of leaving, 9dashline, refugees, China, zero-Covid measures, US, asylum, Canada, Australia, Latin America, pandemic, Chinese emigration, migration, Xi Jinping, UNHCR, International Organization for Migration, human rights activists, religious practitioners, exit bans, run-ology, White Paper Protests, lockdowns, travel restrictions, social control, under 40, Chinese society, discrimination, ageism, three-child policy, quiet quitting, neijuan 内卷, tangping 躺平, social media, Chinese netizens, runxue 润学, WeChat, emigrating, United States DIY, Southeast Asia, Colombia, Panama, censorship, brain drain, demographics, anti-emigration discourse, Chinese diaspora, workforce, national rejuvenation, dream of national rejuvenation, passport, 2023 Anti-Espionage Law, espionage, Safeguard Defenders, hostage diplomacy, hukou

A looming challenge: Women in Pakistan’s terrorism landscape

Written by Dr Amira Jadoon and Iqraa Bukhari

A shift towards utilising female fighters for pragmatic reasons would not be without precedent, as evidenced in case studies of Boko Haram or Islamic State affiliates in Southeast Asia. Pakistan, in particular, presents a largely “untapped female operative market”.

Emerging Issues, South Asia9DLSeptember 29, 20239DashLine, A looming challenge: women in Pakistan’s terrorism landscape, AMIRA JADOON, Iqraa Bukhari, Pakistan, terrorism, political violence, women, woman, female, Jamia Hafsa, terrorist attacks, Counterterrorism Department (CTD), Pakistan Air Force, Badaber, Shari Baloch, University of Karachi, Confucius Institutes, Chinese, Turbat, Noor Jahan Baloch, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan, Majeed Brigade, suicide attacker, paramilitary troops, Taliban (TTP), gender, women in terrorism, anti-state, Islamic State, female recruits, gender-blind counterterrorism, counterterrorism, Afghan jihad, mothers, daughters, wives, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), jihad, martyrdom, 9/11, Islamic State Khorasan, Afghanistan, Taliban, Baloch insurgency, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, sectarian, Sardar Bahadur Khan Women’s University, Dera Ismail Khan, Mullah Fazlullah, Islamic State's Bushra Network, Middle East, Boko Haram, Southeast Asia, anti-feminist narratives, misogynistic, liberals, ethnonational, A looming challenge: Women in Pakistan’s terrorism landscape

Women in West Papua: Broken promises and survivance sovereignty

Written by Camellia Webb-Gannon and Elvira Rumkabu

It is imperative that women’s survivance work and decolonisation goals in West Papua be acknowledged in any future liberation-oriented promises made to West Papuans, and that West Papuan women are recognised as central actors in determining their own futures.

Is the South Korea-Japan-US summit a breakthrough?

Written by Abhishek Sharma

The trilateral summit is a stepping stone towards countering the DPRK and strengthening regional security; however, its success will only be judged in the face of changing politics in the respective capitals.

Sri Lanka gradually returns to macroeconomic stability, but risks remain

Written by Anjali Hewapathage and Thilina Panduwawala

It may be true that Sri Lanka is on a path of economic recovery, but, despite the ambition and compliance to continue growth, it might prove challenging as risk factors play out both locally and globally.

South Asia9DLSeptember 25, 20239dashline, Sri Lanka gradually returns to macroeconomic stability, but risks remain, Anjali Hewapathage, Thilina Panduwawala, Sri Lanka, macroeconomic stability, IMF, Extended Fund Facility, EFF, domestic debt restructuring, DDR, domestic creditors, rupee, central bank, superannuation retirement funds, domestic banking system, private sector bond investors, interest rates, monetary easing, inflation, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, statutory reserve, economic recovery, economic growth, import restrictions, foreign exchange, tourism, inward remittances, revenue targets, expenditure targets, fiscal targets, fund disbursements, tax revenues, GDP ratio, pay-as-you-earn, PAYE, withholding taxes, tax revenue, property tax, wealth tax, revenue collection, tax collection authorities, interest expenditures, multilateral organisations, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, domestic financing, foreign exchange reserves, state-owned enterprises, SOEs, fiscal expenditure, cost-reflective energy reforms, SOE privatisation, Petroleum sector, Petroleum sector liberalisations, United Petroleum, RM Parks, Shell, economic ambition, IMF-backed reform agenda, reform agenda, superannuation funds, debt restructuring, cost of living crisis, costs of living, national elections, lagging economic recovery, private sector, high interest rates, bank loans, banking sector, non-performing loans, economic risks, El Niño phenomenon, South Asia, crude oil imports, hydroelectric power, economic volatility, climate risks, low-income households, social safety nets, social welfare, Sri Lankan economy, external debt repayments, external financing, restructured debt repayments, debt repayments, Sri Lanka gradually returns to macroeconomic stability but risks remain

Webinar: Maritime security and hedging in the South China Sea

WEBINAR: In partnership with La Trobe Asia, consortium lead for the Blue Security program we invite you to the launch of the third paper in the Maritime Affairs Series.

Written by Hunter Marston, Bich Tran, Elina Noor and Richard Javad Heydarian, ‘Fair Winds and Following Seas: Maritime Security and Hedging in the South China Sea’ explores the maritime security strategies of Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

News9DLSeptember 22, 20239DASHLINE, Webinar: Maritime security and hedging in the South China Sea, South China Sea, Hunter Marston

German submarines for India: An arsenal for democracies?

Written by Hendrik A. Pasligh

As the European arms industry scrambles to manage the needs of and lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine, Germany has sought to rekindle its defence-industrial cooperation with India.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 21, 20239dashline, German submarines for India: An arsenal for democracies?, Hendrik A. Pasligh, Germany, India, submarines, weapons arsenal, arms industry, Russia-Ukraine war, defence-industrial cooperation, key technologies, domestic defence industry, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited, thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, Indian Navy, Mumbai, Project-75, geopolitical dynamics, defence industries, US defence, European defence, artillery shells, long-term economic feasibility, Rheinmetall, Zeitenwende, Boris Pistorius, strategic partnership, Berlin, New Delhi, Germany-India partnership, arms sales, border disputes, Pakistan, China, PRC, nuclear powers, Moscow, beijing, Russian arms, strategic interest, Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s navy, uncrewed surface and underwater vehicles, USV, UUV, self-sufficiency, indigenous aircraft carrier programme, international cooperation, ‘Make in India’ policy, technology transfer, domestic industrial capacity, rules-based international order, German National Security Strategy, Annalena Baerbock, feminist foreign policy, gender-based violence, NATO, defence startups, economies of scale

In Conversation with Sumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and William Thompson

9DASHLINE recently sat down with Sumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and William Thompson to discuss their highly relevant new book The Sino-Indian Rivalry: Implications for Global Order.

Showing how the Sino-Indian rivalry has evolved from the late 1940s to the present day, the authors underscore its significance for global politics and highlight how the asymmetries between India and China have the potential to escalate conflict in the future.

In Conversation9DLSeptember 20, 20239dashline, In Conversation with Šumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and William Thompson: The Sino-Indian Rivalry, The Sino-Indian Rivalry, Šumit Ganguly, William Thompson, India, PRC, China, People's Republic of China, Indian colonial troops, British colonialism, colonial era, Boxer Rebellion, Nehru, hegemony, Tibet, Mao, Zhou Enlai, Tibetan Khampa rebels, US, Sino-American rapprochement, New Delhi, Dalai Lama, government-in-exile, territorial disputes, Quad, indo-pacific strategy, Obama, Trump, Biden, Himalayas, Indian Ocean, South China Sea, East China Sea, civil society, non-state actors, Modi, Manmohan Singh, economic interdependence, summits, Rajiv Gandhi, Deng Xiaoping, economic cooperation, Galwan, multilateral formats, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, strategic rivalry, South Asia, Pakistan, BRICS, positional rivalry, In Conversation with Sumit Ganguly Manjeet Pardesi and William Thompson

Southeast Asian maritime states are hedging to stay afloat amidst US-China rivalry

Written by Hunter Marston

As US-China rivalry hardens, becoming more zero-sum, and China continues to challenge the territorial sovereignty of maritime Southeast Asian states, it will become increasingly difficult to sustain such hedging policies.

Struggling brand “Bhutan”

Written by Dr Lhawang Ugyel

Perhaps it is time for the world to step up and convince Bhutan that its values are worth standing up for by investing in a sustainable economy premised around the well-being of its individuals.

NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin

The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared security challenges between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLSeptember 8, 20239DashLine, NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?, Mathieu Droin, NATO, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Chinese Foreign Ministry, NATO Summit, Lithuania, AP4, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, south korea, transatlandopacific, alliance, hegemon, NATO’s partnership, NATO partnerships, Allies, Vilnius Summit Communiqué, dialogue, Washington DC, People’s Republic of China (PRC), NATO’s agenda, NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept, Euro-Atlantic security, military alliance, legacy of the Cold War, Cold War, blocs, bloc building, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, United Kingdom, Indo-Pacific tilt, 2021 Integrated Review, France, AUKUS, AUKUS crisis, Paris, President Macron, Emmanuel Macron, NATO’s global partnerships, Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Germany, Italy, North Korea, Russia, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO liaison office, NATO International Staff, President Yoon Suk-yeol, Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, India, New Delhi, Indonesia, honest broker, Jakarta, Non-alignment, Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), Philippines, Myanmar, pro-China, pro-US, critical infrastructure, telecommunications, port facilities, military threat, no limits partnership, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, autocratic, Russo-Chinese alignment, Moscow, military posture, deter, deterrence, historical revisionism, spheres of influence, NATO’s eastward expansion, the West, Georgia, 2008 Bucharest Summit, Ukraine, Beijing, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPP), cybersecurity, interoperability, Article 5, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sanctions, humanitarian aid, European Union, Ramstein Group, G7, Taiwan Strait, Senkaku Islands, contingency, signalling, Eastern flank, trade, foreign direct investments, Brussels, anti-coercion instrument, critical raw materials, Sweden, EU Indo-Pacific Forum, Strategic Partnership, systemic rival, de-risking, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, leverage, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, Global Combat Air Programme, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, UAE, flexilateral