The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Mathieu Droin

The brewing Indo-Pacific architecture is inherently “flexilateral” due to the breadth of factors and the rapidly changing stakes that determine its many actors’ positions.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJune 28, 20239DashLine, The transatlantic puzzle in the Indo-Pacific, Mathieu Droin, European Union, Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, AUKUS, transatlantic, minilateral, Indo-Pacific, Japan, China, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), India, strategy, flexilateral, Thucydides trap, geoeconomic, trade, geostrategic, ASEAN, ASEAN centrality, clubs, biannual EU-US high-level consultations on the Indo-Pacific, Washington, France, overseas territories, Indian Ocean, Pacific, strategic autonomy, puissance d’equilibres, power of balances, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Pacific Islands, Netherlands, Germany, Council of the EU, EU presidency, Italy, Rome, Tempest programme, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Raisina Dialogue, Denmark, maritime domain, Hungary, Chinese coercion, Lithuania, dependence, Berlin, Beijing, German Indo-Pacific strategy, Central and Eastern Europe, Xi, Putin, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia-China axis, NATO, EU Indo-Pacific forum, South Korea, New Zealand, President Macron, GLOBSEC Forum, North Macedonia, Sweden, Djibouti, Laos, transatlantic Quad, Anglo-Saxons, aspiring powers, rising powers, strategic autonomists, GCAP, Franco-Indian-UAE initiative, freedom to manoeuvre, Quaderateral Security Dialogue, Quad, EU, UK, Thucydides, Giorgia Meloni, Ukraine, Czech, Nato, GLOBSEC, NZ, UAE, CSIC, CSIS

Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations

Written by Dr William Hurst

The bet that security fears could be addressed to allow the resumption of progress on trade did not pay off. China lost a significant opportunity to re-open more fully to the world and deepen its economic ties with arguably its most important trading partner (the Eurozone).

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLMay 31, 20239DashLine, Guns before butter? Multi-dimensional diplomacy in China-Europe relations, William Hurst, China, EU, China-Europe relations, diplomacy, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK, Lu Shaye, sovereignty, post-Soviet states, Ukraine, Chinese National Chairman Xi Jinping, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, trade, most favoured nation, human rights, President Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Democrats, policy of de-linking, decoupling, de-risking, United States, Taiwan, North Korea, ideology, values, global power, security interests, Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, NATO, neutrality, Vladimir Putin, Japan, balance of power, India, the West, aircraft carrier, China-Ukraine relations, Beijing, Brussels, strategic signalling, Paris, US State Department, President Biden, Moscow, Kyiv, peace negotiations, peace talks, sanctions, de-escalation, Eurozone

’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin

Written by Dr Kerry Brown

In this context, the one positive Russia offers to China is that it does not belong to the Western bloc. Xi’s seemingly warm words to Putin are an acknowledgement that his enemy’s enemy is his friend.

Editor's Picks9DLMay 11, 20239DashLine, ’We’re going through changes’ – What Xi meant when he spoke to Putin, Kerry Brown, President Xi Jinping, China, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Moscow, geopolitics, Chinese elite, America, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sino-Russian, China-Russia alignment, Beijing, autocratic norm, democracy, common destiny, Community of Common Destiny, community of common destiny for mankind, win-win, Belt and Road Initiative, Qing, Republican, People’s Republic, Winston Churchill, Second World War, Great Powers, UK, middle-income, sense of destiny, Western hegemony, multipolarity, Western bloc, NATO, Soviet, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, peace plan, nuclear weapons, ‘WE’RE GOING THROUGH CHANGES’ – WHAT XI MEANT WHEN HE SPOKE TO PUTIN, Xi Jinping, Putin, Ukraine, Nuclear, United Kingdom, US, WW2, WWII, Lau China Institute, Kings College London, Centro Studi Sulla Cina Contemporanea Summer School

Japan’s defence plans: What matters is implementation

Written by Dr Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

Without continuous efforts in Japan including securing monetary and political capital — together with coordinating and cooperating with regional partners — Tokyo’s push for defence modernisation will face a myriad of challenges going forward.

East Asia9DLMay 8, 2023Japan’s defence plans: what matters is implementation, 9DashLine, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Japan, defence, military, National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Buildup Program (DBP), pacifism, Japan’s pacifist constitution, Tokyo, Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF), counterattacks, military readiness, defence planning, National Defense Program Guidelines, China, North Korea, Russia, threats, Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, conflict, warfare, military modernisation, strike capabilities, nuclear doctrine, preemptive strikes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, hybrid warfare, psychological warfare, cognitive warfare, capabilities, resilience, hypervelocity gliding projectiles, Okinawa, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan Air Self-Defense Force, defence budget, US-Japan alliance, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, US-Japan-South Korea trilateral coordination, Seoul, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, free and open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), NATO, Southeast Asia, rule of law, security dilemma

Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence

Written by Adrienne Wu and Melynn Oliver

Those who argue for a formal remilitarisation of Japan should consider why they advocate such a move. Amending Japan’s constitution has proven unnecessary to expand the SDF, therefore the only major benefit is to assay the fears of the Japanese public and expand its international role.

East Asia9DLMay 5, 20239DashLine, Tokyo does not need constitutional reform to bolster defence, Adrienne Wu, Melynn Oliver, Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, defence budget, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Tokyo, Japan's security, defence capabilities, Article 9 framework, Article 9, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, constitutional reform, US, Indo-Pacific, Japan’s pacifist constitution, pacifism, US forces, World War II, Korean War, Washington, Japan’s Supreme Court, right to self-defence, sovereignty, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, remilitarisation of Japan, Defense Agency, defence-related exports, collective defence, National Security Council, National Security Strategy (NSS), House of Representatives, Public support, Russia’s nuclear threats, Russia, China, anti-nuclear stance, Japan’s security role, tax hikes, National Defense Strategy (NDS), Defense Build-up Program (DBP), heightened alert posture, global power shifts, strategic challenge, North Korea, counter-strike capabilities, defence procurement and industrial development strategy, strategic clarity, strategic ambiguity, Taiwan, US-Japan Alliance, Quad, NATO

New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?

Written by Kina Kunz

If the current trend continues, we may be witnessing New Zealand in the process of edging away from its hedging position and instead committing to the US bloc in this ‘new Cold War’.

Pacific9DLMay 3, 20239dashline, Kina Kunz, New Zealand-China relations under Prime Minister Hipkins: Changes on the horizon?, Chris Hipkins, New Zealand, foreign policy, domestic issues, Jacinda Ardern, NZ Labour Party, China, New Zealand-China, security policy, Australia, China Policy, Ardern administration, Hipkins administration, diplomatic dispute, Wellington, Morrison government, Nicholas Khoo, Annie-Marie Brady, Nanaia Mahuta, Aotearoa Foreign Minister, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Taiwan Straits, Russia-Ukraine war, economic diversification, AUKUS, anti-nuclear stance, non-nuclear pillar, formal alliance, Asia-Pacific, Helen Clark, Pacific and Southeast Asian states, US-China rivalry, Māori, Treaty of Waitangi, Robert Patman, Indo-Pacific region, multilateral security arrangement, NATO, Asia Pacific Four, AP4, Andrew Little, defence portfolio, defence policy review, TikTok, security alignment, NZ

Sabah is a flashpoint for Islamist extremism and separatism in Southeast Asia

Written by Dr Maurizio Geri

Both the Malaysian and Philippine governments should be careful not to allow pressure from these disparate groups to create discord which could unravel the critical progress made so far through the Bangsamoro peace process.

Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — one year on

9DASHLINE asks several experts to assess what Russia’s war in Ukraine means for the international order and what the consequences may be for issues in the Indo-Pacific.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLApril 4, 20239DashLine, Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — a year on, Russian President Vladimir Putin, invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s security order, international order, sanctions, Western sanctions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATHAN LEVINE, United States, EU, deterrence, sanctions evasion, China, Taiwan, regional balance of military power, resistance, chaos of war, amphibious invasion of Taiwan, Japan, Beijing, HEE KYOUNG CHANG, new Cold War, authoritarianism, democracy, Second World War, sovereignty and territorial integrity, Germany, neutrality, Finland, Sweden, NATO, South Korea, Russian economy, India, Turkey, Russian oil and gas, North Korea, free trade, bipolar or multipolar system, LEV NACHMAN, solidarity with democracies, autocratisation, anti-authoritarianism, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan Strait, Forum: Russia’s war and the international order — one year on

The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition

Written by Dante Schulz

The Taliban’s inability to address the security and economic concerns of its partners will only exacerbate the glaring issues plaguing Afghanistan.

Faultlines9DLMarch 21, 20239DashLine, The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition, Dante Schulz, Taliban, Afghan Acting Minister of Interior Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani, European Union, Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance, diplomacy, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, official recognition, Taliban regime, human rights, terrorist groups, terrorism, Kabul, Afghan Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi, Turkey, Antalya Diplomacy Forum, China, Tunxi Neighbouring Countries Meeting, Tashkent International Conference, Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, NATO, India, embassy, national security, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company, investment, Afghanistan’s Amu Darya river basin, Chinese-Taliban economic partnership, United Nations, ban women from attending universities, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, ban on female aid workers, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Turkmen, Uzbeks, inclusive government, displacement, ethnic minorities, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Islamabad, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Obaid ur Rehman Nizamani, global caliphate, Chinese Ambassador Wang Yu, ceasefire

The real reason Europe dislikes the Inflation Reduction Act

Written by Thijs Stegeman

Given the current challenges to the liberal order, improved coordination and consideration among its defenders is crucial. This starts with the US acknowledging and discussing the legitimate concerns of its allies instead of dismissing them.

Faultlines9DLMarch 13, 20239DashLine, The real reason Europe dislikes the Inflation Reduction Act, The real reason Europe dislikes the IRA, Thijs Stegeman, Inflation Reduction Act, subsidy scheme, climate activism, US, US-EU relationship, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump, NATO, tariffs, Iran nuclear deal, Biden, export restrictions, semiconductors, China, energy transition, sustainable energy, electric vehicles, solar panels, unfair competition, market-distorting government aid, Washington, US exceptionalism, Congress, Senator Joe Manchin, Democrats, Brussels, US allies, subsidiarisation, standard setter, regulatory approach, EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), fair competition, energy tax credits, green manufacturing, green investment, deindustrialisation, WTO rules, local content, tax break, North America, French President Emmanuel Macron, US military assistance, transatlantic unity, Trade and Technology Council, EU Commission, Green Deal Industrial Plan, EU-US alliance, liberal order

Two years after coup, Myanmar junta adapts to isolation

Written by Hunter Marston

Western aid is far away and will remain hostage to both Myanmar’s immediate neighbours, with whom they must coordinate, and broader concerns about security on the European continent, where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will grip Western leaders’ attention for the foreseeable future.

India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?

Written by Manali Kumar

With the next round of parliamentary elections scheduled for the summer of 2024, Modi is already in campaign mode, and the G20 presidency has all but been declared a success.

South Asia9DLJanuary 26, 2023India’s G20 presidency in 2023: Modi’s time to shine?, 9DashLine, Manali Kumar, India, G20, Bali Summit, emerging economies, debt crises, global economic and financial governance, war in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Poland, Indonesia, food and energy security, climate crisis, post-Covid economic recession and inflationary crisis, inflation, recession, New Delhi, One Earth, One Family, One Future, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s G20 presidency, Global South, ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE), disaster risk reduction and resilience, economic crime, green hydrogen, climate financing, loss and damage fund, COP27, cryptocurrency, regulation, Bali declaration, US, Reserve Bank of India, dollarisation, tax evasion, money laundering, protectionism, sustainable development, empowering women, Russia’s war against Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, Russia’s aggression, neutrality, Russian oil, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, sanctions, peace agreement, COVID-19 pandemic, China-US rivalry, diplomacy, re-election

2023: The future of CEE-China relations

9DASHLINE asked a select group of experts to assess Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries’ relations with China and how they expect them to evolve in 2023.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLJanuary 16, 20239dashline, 2023: The future of CEE-China relations, JUSTYNA SZCZUDLIK, VUK VUKSANOVIC, VALENTINA VENGUST, STEFAN VLADISAVLJEV, Central and Eastern European, CEE, China, 17+1, 14+1, Beijing, 2022, 2023, Russia, Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine war, PRC-CEE, PRC-CEE relations, economic cooperation, security concerns, critical infrastructure, high-tech industry, backsliding, democratic backsliding, coercion, Lithuania, EU common market, 'no-limits' friendship, Moscow, 16+1 summit, Huo Yuzhen, Estonia, Latvia, Jiang Yu, US, united states, Taiwan, security guarantor, NATO, China-CEE format, Czech Republic, Greece, Chinese investments, security concern, security guarantees, Washington, Belarus, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Serbia, Hungary, Middle Corridor, Albania, North Macedonia, cooling-off period, joint statement, territorial integrity, sovereignty, diplomatic missions, Baltic countries, EU-China relations, China-CEE cooperation, cooperation mechanism, Sino-Serbian cooperation, territorial disputes, free trade agreement

Attentive friends, busy enemies, and a bright future — 2023 for North Korea

Written by Benedikt Staar

North Korean politics are strongly influenced by the regime’s friends, its enemies, and its own ambitions. As it turns out, things look promising for Pyongyang on all three fronts.

The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific

Written by Rafael Loss and Elisabeth I-Mi Suh

Adopting a rather transactional take and framing the Bundeswehr’s regional engagement in the context of Washington’s focus on China is not wrong, but it is short-sighted.

Europe and the Indo-Pacific9DLDecember 1, 20229DashLine, The Bundeswehr in the Indo-Pacific, Rafael Loss, Betty Suh, Elisabeth I-Mi Suh, Bundeswehr, Indo-Pacific, Germany, Berlin, diplomacy, German federal armed forces, armed forces, joint exercises, NATO, NATO allies, Australia, China, military posture, National Security Strategy, China Strategy, German frigate Bayern, German Navy, navy, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Eberhard Zorn, Pakistan, Guam, Japan, south korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, India, South China Sea, innocent passage, Taiwan Strait, Beijing, Shanghai, German Air Force, Eurofighter, jets, transporters, tankers, Rapid Pacific, Pitch Black air combat exercise, Kakadu maritime combat exercise, F-35 stealth aircraft, F-35, Talisman Saber, United States, NATO sumiit, Nato Summit, NATO Strategic Concept, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, New Zealand, cyber, cyber defence, maritime security, climate change, Disinformation, hybrid threats, Canberra, Tokio, Tokyo, Enhanced Opportunity Partner, Multilateralism, Asia-Pacific, deterrence, Taiwan, North Korea, missile tests, Rheinmetall, Russia, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, People's Liberation Army, Russian Navy, authoritarian revisionism, White House

The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan

Written by Reuben Steff and Martin Jirušek

Should war or a system of neo-Cold War style blocs emerge, it will be US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific that form the new frontlines and that have the most to lose.

Pacific9DLNovember 23, 20229DashLine, Reuben Steff, The fate of the Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Ukraine and US diplomacy towards Taiwan, Martin Jirušek, Taiwan, US National Security Strategy, geopolitics, Europe, Indo-Pacific, super-order, security order, rules-based institutionalism, Moscow, China, USA, diplomacy, military, rebalancing, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise, Cold War, ‘hub-and-spoke’ system, alliance, Washington, networked’ security architecture, minilateral, multilateral, defence, allies, National Defense Strategy, Beijing, zero-sum, tit-for-tat, AUKUS trilateral security pact, Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Australia, UK, United Kingdom, Japan, India, containment, trade war, microchips, blocs, Southeast Asia, South Pacific, Middle East, shatterbelts, nuclear proliferation, southeast asia, confidence building, Kyiv, Emmanuel Macron, peace, France, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Taipei, Pentagon, White House, de-escalation, Joe Biden, President Biden, ‘One China’ policy, NATO, Admiral Philip Davidson, US Congress, Admiral Mike Gilday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, invasion, Michael Beckley and, Hal Brands, peaking power trap, UN

The Korean Peninsula: Lessons from Russia's aggression against Ukraine

Written by Oskar Pietrewicz

The different reactions of South Korea and North Korea to the Russian invasion, the deepening Chinese-Russian cooperation, and US efforts to strengthen alliances, may perpetuate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Alignment without alliance: China’s growing ambivalence to Putin’s war

Written by Lunting Wu and Kamil Matusiewicz

Functional, strategic and normative factors have shaped Beijing’s growing ambivalence towards the war, and despite the absence of outright condemnation, a subtle shift and distancing can be discerned.

Faultlines9DLNovember 4, 20229DashLine, Lunting Wu, Kamil Matusiewicz, Alignment without alliance: China’s growing ambivalence to Putin’s war, China, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jingping, Xi Jinping, SCO, SCO Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Samarkand, Ukraine, Ukraine war, military, Moscow, Beijing, Russia's aggression, cooperation, economic partners, Russian oil, gas, and coal, Saudi Arabia, trade, decoupling, US, NATO, security, Taiwan, AUKUS, Quad, Li Zhanshu, Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, State Duma, NATO allies, liberal hegemony, Liberal International Order, liberal internationalism, Orange Revolution, colour revolutions, 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, Yang Jiechi, Foreign Affairs Commission, US hegemony, Western powers, liberal democracy, US interests, Western sanctions, Sinopec, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), New Development Bank (NDB), Huawei, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Arctic LNG 2 project, EU sanctions, Xiaomi Corp., Lenovo Group Ltd., Power of Siberia 2, zero-covid, secondary sanctions, food security, food insecurity, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Wang Yi, Kremlin, social media, Ukraine's counter-offensives, Weibo, Central Asian states, Belt and Road Initiative, humanitarian aid, Central and Eastern European countries, 17+1, People’s Liberation Army, indivisible security, Global Security Initiative, Cold War, sovereignty, Nuclear weapons, autonomous regions