Political instability and uncertainty in Nepal
Political instability and uncertainty in Nepal
WRITTEN BY GAURAB SHUMSHER THAPA
18 February 2021
Nepal’s domestic politics have been undergoing a turbulent and significant shift. On 20 December 2020, at the recommendation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolved the House of Representatives, calling for snap elections in April and May 2021. Oli’s move was a result of a serious internal rift within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) that threatened to depose him from power. Opposition parties and other civil society stakeholders have condemned the move as unconstitutional and several writs have been filed against the move at the Supreme Court (SC) with hearings underway. While massive protests have taken place condemning the prime minister’s move, if the SC reinstates parliament, Oli would lose the moral authority to govern and could be subject to a vote of no-confidence. If the SC validates his move, it is unclear if he would be able to return to power with a majority.
The formation of a strong government after decades of political instability was expected to lead to the socio-economic transformation of Nepal. Regardless of the SC’s decision, the country is likely to see an escalation of political tensions in the days ahead. The internal rift that led to the December parliamentary dissolution and the political dimensions of the current predicament (along with domestic and geopolitical implications of internal political instability) will lead to a serious and long-term weakening of Nepal’s democratic fabric.
Power-sharing and legitimacy in the NCP
Differences between NCP chairs Oli and former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal have largely been premised on a power-sharing arrangement and, therefore, lead to a vertical division in the party. In the December 2017 parliamentary elections, a coalition between the Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist or UML) and the Dahal-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre or MC) won nearly two-thirds of the seats. In May 2018, both parties merged to form the NCP, however, internal politics have weakened this merger.
Although the NC has denounced Oil’s move for snap elections as unconstitutional, it has also stated that is will not shy away from elections if the SC decides to dissolve the lower house. Sensing increasing instability, several royalist parties and groups have accused the government of corruption and protested on the streets for the reinstatement of the Hindu state and constitutional monarchy (to reinvent and stabilise Nepal’s image and identity).
While both the factions claim to represent the authentic party, the Election Commission has sought clarifications from both factions before deciding on the matter. According to the Political Party Act, the faction that can substantiate its claim by providing signatures of at least 40 per cent of its central committee members is eligible to get recognised as the official party. The officially recognised faction will get the privilege of retaining the party and election symbol, while the unrecognised faction will have to register as a new party which could hamper future electoral prospects. A faction led by Dahal and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar was planning to initiate a motion of no-confidence against Oli but sensing an imminent threat to his position, Oli decided to motion for the dissolution of parliament.
Internal party dynamics
A range of internal political dynamics have led to the current state of turmoil within the NCP. Dahal has accused Oli of disregarding the power-sharing arrangement agreed upon during the formation of the NCP according to which Oli was supposed to hand over either the premiership or the executive chairmanship of the party to Dahal. In September 2020, both leaders reached an agreement under which Oli would serve the remainder of his term as prime minister while Dahal would act as the executive chair of the party. Yet — Oli failed to demonstrate any intention of relinquishing either post and thereby increasing friction within the party.
Additionally, Oli made unilateral appointments to several cabinet and government positions thus further consolidating his individual authority over the newly formed NCP. He also sidelined the senior leader of the NCP and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar, leading Nepal to side with Dahal over Oli. Consequently, Oli chose to dissolve parliament and seek a fresh mandate rather than face a vote of no-confidence. Importantly, party unity between the Marxist-Leninist CPN (UML) and the Maoist CPN (MC) did not lead to an (expected) ideological unification.
Domestic politics and geopolitics
Geopolitical factors and external actors have historically impacted Nepal’s domestic political landscape. In a bid to cement his authority over the NCP, Oli has attempted to improve ties with India — strained due to the recent inclusion of the disputed territories in its new political map — resulting in recent high-level visits from both countries. India has also provided Nepal with one million doses of COVID-19 vaccines as part of its vaccine diplomacy efforts in the region. However, while India has previously interfered in Nepal’s domestic politics, it has described the current power struggle as an ‘internal matter’ to prevent a backlash from Nepali policymakers and to avoid any potential spillover of political unrest.
In recent years, India’s (traditional) dominant influence in Nepal has been challenged by China’s ascendancy. Due to fears of Tibetans potentially using Nepal’s soil to conduct anti-China activities, China considers Nepal important to its national security strategy. Beijing has traditionally maintained a non-interventionist approach to foreign policy; however, this approach is gradually changing as is evident from the Chinese ambassador to Nepal’s proactive efforts to address current crises within the NCP. Nepal’s media speculates that China is in favour of keeping the NCP intact as ideological affinity between the NCP and the Communist Party of China could help Beijing exert its political and economic influence over its neighbour.
Though mindful of India’s longstanding influence in Nepal, China is sceptical of growing US interest in the Himalayan state; especially considering Oli’s push for parliamentary approval of the USD $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant assistance from the United States to finance the construction of electrical transmission lines in Nepal. In contrast, Dahal has opposed the MCC and has described it as part of the US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China. Given Nepal is a signatory to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing might prefer development projects under the BRI framework and could lobby the Nepali government to delay or reject US-led projects.
Implications for future governance
After the political changes of 2006 (which ended Nepal’s decade-long armed conflict), it was expected that political stability would usher in economic development in the country. Moreover, a strong majority government under Oli raised hopes of achieving modernisation, though, sadly, ruling party leaders have instead engaged in a bitter power struggle and numerous government corruption scandals have only served to undermine trust in the administration.
Amidst the current turmoil within the NCP, the main opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC), is hoping that an NCP division will raise its prospects of coming to power in the future. Although the NC has denounced Oli’s move for snap elections as unconstitutional, it has also stated that it will not shy away from elections if the SC decides to dissolve the lower house. Sensing increasing instability, several royalist parties and groups have accused the government of corruption and protested on the streets for the reinstatement of the Hindu state and constitutional monarchy (to reinvent and stabilise Nepal’s image and identity).
Final thoughts
The last parliamentary election had provided the NCP with a five-year mandate to govern the country. However, Oli decided to seek a fresh mandate, claiming that the Dahal-Nepal faction obstructed the smooth functioning of government. Unfortunately, domestic political instability has resurfaced as the result of an internal personality rift within the party. This worsening democratic situation will not benefit either India or China (given both want to circumvent potential spillover effects).
Even if the Supreme Court validates Oli’s move, elections in April are not guaranteed and if these are not held within six months from the date of dissolution — a constitutional crisis could occur. Alternatively, should the Supreme Court overturn Oli’s decision, he could lose his position as both the prime minister and the NCP chair. Irrespective of the outcome, Nepali politics are bound to face deepening uncertainty in the days ahead.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Gaurab Shumsher Thapa is an analyst, researcher and writer on matters related to international relations. He is the President of the Nepal Forum of International Relations Studies (NEPAL FIRST). He holds an MA in International Relations and Diplomacy from Tribhuvan University, Nepal.
This article is published under a cross-sharing agreement with South Asian Voices and you can find the original here. Image credit: Flickr/International Labour Organisation