Georgia is in danger of being caught in China’s web
Georgia is in danger of being caught in China’s web
WRITTEN BY TAMARA OBGAIDZE
24 October 2024
The recent discussions among Georgian politicians and analysts about involving China in the Russia-Georgia talks have sparked significant debate. Some in pro-government circles view China as a potential mediator, but there are serious questions about the feasibility and long-term consequences of this idea. Georgia’s new strategic partnership with China marks a notable shift in the country’s foreign policy. While there might be some interesting economic opportunities, its broader geopolitical implications deserve careful consideration. With Georgia’s goal of EU integration in mind, the timing of this partnership raises concerns about how it might affect the country’s foreign policy, economic growth, and relations with its Western allies.
In summer 2023, Georgia and China officially became strategic partners, focusing on strengthening political, cultural, and economic ties. Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili’s visit to Beijing highlighted this new bond. Plus, China rolled out visa-free travel to Georgia on May 28, which was noteworthy. Some are even suggesting this partnership could even position China as a mediator in the Russia-Georgia conflict, given its influence over Russia. Support for Chinese mediation has come from the Chinese Ambassador to Georgia, Zhou Qian, who, in April 2023, indicated that China respects Georgia’s sovereignty and is willing to mediate if both Georgia and Russia are open to the idea. However, before embracing this opportunity, it is important to critically assess the practical benefits and potential challenges of such a role for China.
Limited historical involvement
China has historically played a minimal role in the Russia-Georgia conflict, especially when compared to the EU and other Western allies. China’s broader geopolitical ambitions, particularly its desire to challenge Western dominance, may shape its approach to international conflicts, including the one between Georgia and Russia.
A key issue in this partnership is China’s stance on Georgia’s territorial integrity. The agreement’s first paragraph shows respect for "sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity" but it does not explicitly reference Georgia’s internationally recognised borders, including the Russian-occupied regions of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region (South Ossetia). In contrast, Georgia supports China’s "One China" policy, recognising Taiwan as part of China, highlighting an imbalance in the partnership. This ambiguity suggests that China may be unwilling to confront Russia on sensitive territorial issues, given their close strategic ties. Meanwhile, the US-Georgia Strategic Partnership Charter clearly supports Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, demonstrating a stronger commitment compared to China.
Pseudo-neutrality and mediation prospects
China’s stance on the Ukraine war demonstrates its so-called pseudo-neutrality. Even though it hasn’t officially supported Russia, China’s financial and military support still helps Russia’s war efforts. This raises questions about whether China could act as an impartial mediator in the Russia-Georgia conflict. The agreement also has Georgia supporting several of China’s global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilisation Initiative. These initiatives promote a "new type of international relations" which some critics interpret as a challenge to the Western rules-based order.
The proposed development of a deep-water port at Anaklia could position Georgia as a key hub for trade between Europe and Asia, which aligns with China’s broader ambitions to expand its influence through infrastructure investments.
Georgia’s involvement in China’s vision for "true multilateralism" suggests a possible shift towards a more multi-vector foreign policy, balancing relations with multiple global powers rather than focusing solely on Western partners. However, this shift could weaken Georgia’s commitment to EU and NATO integration, as well as increase its vulnerability to influence from authoritarian regimes like China and Russia.
Economic considerations and risks
One topic of interest is Georgia’s potential involvement as an observer in the "Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries" (14+1). This group, which started as 17+1, has seen countries like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia exit, citing limited economic benefits and concerns over China's stance on regional security. While Georgia’s inclusion would be a benefit for China’s image, the actual benefits for Georgia are still uncertain, especially considering the mixed results and economic struggles faced by other members.
The agreement between Georgia and China also mentions concessional lending for social and infrastructure projects. While increased Chinese funding could accelerate development, it also raises concerns about economic dependency. China's lending practices have, in some cases, led to increased political influence, as seen in countries involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The potential for "debt-trap diplomacy" — where high-interest loans result in political leverage — should not be overlooked. While Georgia may benefit from short-term investments, the long-term risks associated with greater Chinese involvement in critical infrastructure should be carefully assessed. Examples from Africa and Latin America show the risks involved, with countries experiencing severe economic fallout and increased Chinese influence.
Building stronger economic ties with China, especially through concessional loans, might increase Georgia’s dependency and susceptibility to Chinese political pressure, mirroring the experiences of other nations in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The case of CEFC in the Czech Republic is a cautionary example where high hopes for economic gains turned into political and economic disappointments.
Strategic importance: Why Georgia?
China's interest in Georgia, and by extension the South Caucasus, can be understood through several key factors, primarily revolving around the "Middle Corridor" and strategic geopolitical positioning, an alternative trade route connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus. Georgia’s access to the Black Sea further enhances its strategic value, especially amid ongoing regional conflicts.
The proposed development of a deep-water port at Anaklia could position Georgia as a key hub for trade between Europe and Asia, which aligns with China’s broader ambitions to expand its influence through infrastructure investments. However, this also means that Georgia must carefully weigh the potential benefits of Chinese investment against the possibility of becoming overly reliant on China.
China’s global strategy includes building political partnerships that can support its objectives in international forums like the UN. Even smaller nations like Georgia can play a significant role in advancing China’s goals on the global stage.
In conclusion
The strategic partnership between Georgia and China is a complex development with both upsides and downsides. On one hand, it offers potential economic benefits, but on the other, it raises serious concerns about Georgia’s sovereignty, democratic values, and Euro-Atlantic goals.
The asymmetry in the agreement, China’s reluctance to explicitly support Georgia’s territorial integrity, and the risks of increased dependency on Chinese economic and political influence are key factors that must be considered. It is crucial to maintain a clear focus on its national interests and strategic objectives, especially as it continues to pursue closer ties with the EU and NATO. Especially considering the recent reintroduction of “Russian Law” which has already strained its EU integration efforts and relations with key Western allies. In this context, a careful balancing act will be essential to avoid compromising Georgia’s long-term goals.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Tamara Obgaidze is a Georgian activist based in Tbilisi. She is a writing fellow with Young Voices Europe. Image credit: Slava Taukachou/Unsplash.