China’s endorsement of Russia’s assault: Implications for Europe and Asia

19 April 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s de facto endorsement epitomises the two countries’ alignment. Closer Beijing-Moscow relations are not a new phenomenon — it is the result of an almost decade-long process of Russia’s leaning towards the PRC due to its deteriorating international position since the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas (2013-2014). To break his country’s increasing international isolation, Putin has doubled down on a Russian ‘Pivot to Asia’, to which China has responded positively.

The breakthrough moment was the Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing on 4 February, with the release of a lengthy joint statement about a no limits friendship and specifying areas of mutual coordination. China-backed Russia’s opposition to the further enlargement of NATO and expressed its support for Russian proposals for security guarantees in Europe. Although Ukraine was not mentioned, the fact that the communique was published amid Russia’s threat against the country and a few days after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's letter to the OSCE calling to revise the security order in Europe was very telling. In exchange, Moscow supported China’s stance on Taiwan and expressed opposition to AUKUS and other US-led alliances in Asia as a way of seeking confrontation.

What China’s endorsement looks like

At first glance, China’s official stance on Russian aggression appears vague. Beijing is trying to create an image that it is neutral and does not take sides. This is why China appears to neither condemn nor support Russia openly; it also seems to refrain from endorsing Ukraine for resisting and defending its homeland. However, a thorough analysis of the official discourse demonstrates that Beijing almost openly endorses Russia both politically and diplomatically. Furthermore, at its core, this endorsement is mirroring Russia’s disinformation and propaganda about the war, its reasons, the parties involved, and the situation in Ukraine.

When it comes to Ukraine, China is trying to refrain from talking about it as such, with officials usually referring to the aggression as a “crisis”, “problem”, “issue” or “situation”. The PRC often highlights that sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of every country should be respected and maintained. However, it does not explicitly enunciate that it respects Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. What is more, Ukraine is not portrayed as a victim of aggression. All of these lead to the conclusion that for Beijing, Ukraine is not a fully independent country, but rather a zone of limited sovereignty that belongs to Russia’s sphere of influence.

China’s political support for Russia’s assault on Ukraine and coercion against Lithuania shows that the PRC has already become a security threat to Europe.

The Chinese narrative about Russia is entirely different. Russia is mentioned explicitly and openly, and as an independent state that pursues policies based on its own interests. It is often pronounced that Russia’s legitimate security concerns must be taken into account. NATO is mentioned as a Cold War organisation, and China follows Russia’s demands to build a new security system in Europe. In this context, Chinese officials often allude to the “principle of indivisibility of security” — a Russia-led notion that seeks a revision of the security order in Europe. This is a new phase in China’s diplomatic lexicon that has been used since the beginning of this year and in the Russian context. China also strongly opposes any sanctions on Russia and presents bizarre statements about the depth of its bilateral ties. For example, on 7 March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Sino-Russian relations are rock-solid and contribute to world peace and development.

Likewise, on 30 March, during Lavrov’s visit to Beijing, Wang said that relations ensured the right direction, withstood the test of changing international situation, and showed a determination to further develop ties. China also mirrors Russia’s disinformation. For instance, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson repeated Russia’s claims about US labs in Ukraine that develop biological weapons. In the case of the West (US, NATO, EU), there are explicit suggestions that it bears the responsibility for the war. Although China is trying to refrain from using the term ‘war’ and has so far not indicated who is responsible for this “conflict”, Beijing sends the following message: Ukraine is under unprecedented US pressure to apply for NATO membership, and Russia is feeling insecure of NATO’s endless eastward enlargement and had no choice but to defend itself.

What are the reasons?

There is a rationale behind China’s presumed vagueness. On the one hand, Beijing would like to send a signal to Russia that it sides with Moscow, but on the other hand, it is trying to eschew serious deterioration of its ties with the West. China shares at least two strategic goals with Moscow. The first is a conviction about the constant decline of the West, that paves the way for the revision of the current US-led global order, as the US is the main adversary for both countries. The second is a need to keep its authoritarian regimes alive. Given renewed efforts to consolidate the West, and especially given US President Joe Biden’s appeals to commence an alliance of democracies, China’s alignment with totalitarian Russia seems a reasonable choice. There are also purely self-interested goals. The PRC’s international position and security situation is deteriorating.

The best examples are US activities to strengthen existing alliances and build new ones in Asia (AUKUS, Quad) to deter China and support Taiwan in case of Chinese aggression. Taiwan’s rising international position also prompts Beijing to ally with Moscow, counting on its political support at the very least. Another aim is to buy time — to distract the US’ attention from Asia and watch how the US and the West react to Russia’s assault to learn lessons and prepare for a potential conflict in Asia in a decade or so. The vagueness of China’s discourse, therefore, serves as a means to avoid damaging ties with the West. The foggy narrative gives Beijing the room to manoeuvre. Although China intends to revise the global order, it still benefits from globalisation and is tightly plugged into the global value chains. Abrupt economic disruptions that may occur in the case of China’s material support for Russia, especially since the world is aware that Russia is committing brutal atrocities, is a worst-case scenario for Beijing, which is already facing serious domestic conundrums.

Implications for Europe and Asia

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a brutal violation of international law that undermines the security system in Europe. Indeed, China’s support is still limited to political declarations. But even if China does not help Russia materially (it seems Beijing is not eager to do so, at least for now), the Russia-China alignment is a fact. China’s ongoing unprecedented economic coercion against Lithuania and multinational corporations reveals that Beijing is already revising economic, security, and normative orders in Europe. The European mood on China is changing rapidly, and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a front runner in this regard. For years, the CEE has voiced its concerns about Russia as an existential threat, and about deepening Beijing-Moscow ties. China’s political support for Russia’s assault on Ukraine and coercion against Lithuania shows that the PRC has already become a security threat to Europe. The space for China-CEE cooperation has already shrunk, bilateral ties are about to deteriorate further and an increase in negative perceptions of China among CEE citizens is very likely.

War in Ukraine is also a problem for Asia. China is watching. There might be two calculations in Beijing: modernising its army, including nuclear capabilities, and testing the unity and determination of the democratic world in decoupling with Russia. The more united we stand, the more severe sanctions we impose on Russia, the more resilient we are — economically and in hard security — the less appetite China may have for military aggression in Asia. All Asian countries that are fearful of China should explicitly condemn and impose sanctions on Russia, and support Ukraine politically and materially to deter Beijing. Europe should be prepared to respond in case of any aggression from China.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Dr Justyna Szczudlik is Deputy Head of Research and China Analyst with the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). Image credit: The Kremlin.