Canada: Time to reset its Indo-Pacific approach
Canada: time to reset its indo-pacific approach
WRITTEN BY JOE VARNER
27 April 2021
Six years after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to power, Canada is still flopping around on its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region. Given the pivot of the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany to the region, even NATO, you would think that Ottawa would step up its game in the Indo-Pacific and engage the region in a sustained and meaningful way, particularly on a military level. But this has not been the case.
Immediately after his 2015 General Election win, Trudeau, announced to the world, “Well, I have a simple message for you. On behalf of 35 million Canadians: We’re back!”. Sadly, for Canadians and our closest allies and friends in the oft-forgotten region, Canada’s engagement has been a series of hits, misses, and sometimes embarrassing failures. So, what has been the impact of the Trudeau government on Indo-Pacific affairs?
A region not to be ignored
Canada has deep interests in the Indo-Pacific related to trade, security and a very large Southwest Asian, Indian, Chinese, and Hong Kong diaspora at home. In simple terms, 90 per cent of the world’s trade flows on the oceans and seas, and 80 per cent of Canadian trade moves by interior and exterior waterways. Canada is the 12th largest export economy in the world and the 24th most complex. While the US remains our largest trading partner, the Trudeau government has talked about the need to diversify Canadian foreign trade with other markets, perhaps in memory of his father’s third option. Apart from the US, Canada’s largest export markets are China, Japan, the UK, and Mexico. It should be noted that South Korea, India, and Hong Kong are not far behind Mexico.
Nevertheless, a golden opportunity exists for Canada in the aftermath of the recent Quad anti-submarine warfare exercise to put itself forward to join the Quad, but the question is — given its spotty performance to date — will Canada be welcome?
In 2017, the value of Canadian exports abroad moving largely through oceans was $377 billion. Therefore, there is no question that Indo-Pacific peace, rule of law, and security of trade are critical to Canadian national interests. To that end, Canada is a member of the Transpacific Partnership on Trade, a ‘Five Eyes’ ally of the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, and has close bi-lateral defence ties with many other countries in the region most notably South Korea, Japan, and to a lesser extent Taiwan.
Diplomacy and missteps
On the diplomatic front, Prime Minister Trudeau showed up inexplicably late for the Heads of Government meeting for negotiating the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in Danang, Vietnam in November 2017. Apart from causing delays in the signing of the agreement, this also led to accusations that he had snubbed other world leaders. Trudeau’s much-heralded India tour in February 2018 also embarrassed Canada.
Meanwhile, India has accused the Canadian government of interfering in India’s domestic affairs after unwelcome comments from Trudeau and his cabinet on the farmers' protests in India. New Delhi even summoned and rebuked the Canadian High Commissioner to India. The protesting farmers are largely from Punjab and many of them are Sikhs. Trudeau owes his leadership of the Liberal Party in part to the Sikh community in Canada, which was rewarded with three Cabinet posts in the Canadian government including the Defence Minister Harjit Sajan who the Indian government views as a Khalistani sympathiser.
Having antagonised then US President Donald Trump in December 2017 on the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Trudeau flew to Beijing to ink a deal with China on Free Trade. The long-held preference of the Liberal Party of Canada, going back at least to the pro-China Prime Minister Jean Chretien-era trade mission to Beijing in 1994, has been to do whatever was needed to make China happy as long as Canada has access to Chinese trade. As soon as he was elected, Trudeau threw himself into trying to improve relations and secure a trade deal with China to replace or rebalance dependence on the US.
In terms of standing with its allies, particularly the US, Trudeau and his Cabinet refused to show up to a recent Parliamentary vote condemning China’s genocide against its Turkic Peoples. To be fair, the Trudeau government has condemned Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong and it has joined the US, European Union and the UK in imposing sanctions on four Chinese officials related to human rights abuses in Xinjiang and mistreatment of the country’s Muslim minorities. The Trudeau government also put together a coalition of 59 like-minded countries including the US against Beijing’s practice of ‘hostage diplomacy’ after the seizure and imprisonment of two Canadian citizens, former diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor, in response to Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhouon on a warrant issued by the US. Although it should be noted that the communique issued by the group did not name China as the offending party.
In a further move to appease Beijing, when the ‘two Michaels’ were finally tried for espionage last month after being held for more than two years without trial and Consular access in Beijing the Canadian government cowardly recalled the Ambassador to China, Dominic Barton, leaving the Chargé D’Affaires to represent Canada outside the closed sham trial. Some 26 members of the diplomatic corps came out to support Canada outside the hearings including the United States Ambassador. To date, in real terms, Canada’s engagement at the diplomatic level in the region has been one largely of failure, particularly with both India and China.
On intelligence and security, Canada must do better
On the intelligence and security front, Canada is the only member of the ‘Five Eyes’ Intelligence alliance to not ban Huawei from its future 5G telecommunications network. The Canadian government has yet to give a public accounting of how and why in July of 2019, Dr Xiangguo Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng, and her students from China were removed from Canada's only level-4 lab over a ‘policy breach’ after they shipped Ebola and Nipah viruses to China’s notorious and military-linked Wuhan Institute of Virology. Nor has the Trudeau government been transparent on Cameron Ortis, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police’s director of intelligence caught on an FBI tip passing the Five Eyes most sensitive secret information to Beijing and others.
More worryingly, last year it was revealed that the Canadian government had bought security screening machinery from a Chinese-state owned company for its overseas embassies and consulates. Recently, it was also disclosed that the government had hired a Chinese police-owned company to screen and process visas in its Beijing visa office. In 2018, the Canadian Coast Guard aided Chinese scientists of the Sanya Institute of Deep-sea Science and Engineering (IDSSE), part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in positioning four monitoring devices in the Strait of Juan de Fuca just 300 kilometres off the US Pacific coast. The sensors geared to monitor the underwater environment were connected to the Ocean Network Canada (ONC), a grid of marine observatories stretching from the Northeast Pacific to the Arctic, and positioned not only near Canada’s west coast naval base but also just across the Strait from the Kitsap Naval Base, a nuclear submarine shipyard and the only dry dock on the US’ west coast capable of accommodating a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier.
But China is not alone. In federal court proceedings in April 2020, it was reported that as far back as 2009 the Indian intelligence community’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) had tried to use money and disinformation to covertly gain favour and influence with Canadian politicians. Additionally, a well-funded Sikh lobby successfully pushed the Ministry of Public Safety and the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS) to remove references to Sikh extremism from its annual report in 2018 and 2019, arguing it was targeting the Sikh religion. Canada’s performance on security and intelligence under the Trudeau government has been one of deep concern right down to politicising its own domestic intelligence on Sikh extremism in a country that will forever remember the bombing of Air India in 1985. One can only imagine how Canada’s allies feel about intelligence sharing with Ottawa.
Modest improvements
The news is only modestly better on the defence front. In 2017, the Canadian government laid out its vision for the Canadian Armed Forces and the Royal Canadian Navy in its White Paper, Strong, Secure and Engaged: Canada’s Defence Policy. The document highlighted three main threats to our future maritime trade: Russia’s militarisation of the Arctic, China’s newfound interest in the Arctic, and maritime border disputes in the South China Sea.
The country has been routinely participating in the annual US-led RIMPAC naval exercises off the Hawaiian Islands since its inception. Canada has long held an interest in being more involved with ASEAN, especially the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting. Last year, its Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan was invited as a guest of the Chair to the Defence Ministerial Plus. Canada’s attempts to get more involved in the US and Thailand-led Cobra Gold exercise have met with limited success; so far, Canada is only a member of the Multinational Planning Augmentation Team. However, in a first, the country joined the US-hosted Quad Anti-Submarine Warfare Exercise this year around Guam. Canada has also been involved in helping enforce the maritime sanctions regime on North Korea on a rotational basis as part of Operation NEON.
China and Japan are currently Canada’s second and fourth-largest trading partners respectively. With $3 trillion of trade passing through the South China Sea annually, it is in Canada’s national interest to ensure freedom of navigation and rule of law in the region. In March this year, the country conducted a freedom of navigation operation through the contested Spratly Island chain with its HMCS Calgary and in September 2019 HMCS Ottawa cruised through the Taiwan Strait (as a show of support for regional allies and partners). Three months earlier, a Canadian frigate HMCS Regina and the Supply Ship Asterix were buzzed and harassed by Chinese fighter aircraft as they peacefully transited the same strait on the way from Vietnam to join an operation to counter North Korean smuggling.
Canada must reset its sights
At home, very sadly, the Indo-Pacific is largely ignored by the Canadian population more focused on the Atlantic. Beijing has taken advantage of this North American Atlantic focus of Canadian society to assert itself in Canadian domestic affairs. While we are the US’ neighbour and closest ally, we are also caught in the ‘Claws of the Panda’. Chinese student associations have been found to be monitoring student activists unfavourable to Beijing and the Chinese Communist Party on at least one university campus at McMaster University for the Chinese Embassy and Consulate. Beijing also uses its state security apparatus in China to threaten the families of Canada’s Chinese diaspora in China, while at the same time using its United Front Work Department to intimidate Chinese Canadians in Canada. Beijing has also targeted the so-called ‘five poisons’ in Canada: activists in the Uyghur Muslim, Tibetan, Taiwanese, Hong Kong, and Falun Gong.
There are signs that the new Biden administration has had an impact in changing long-standing Trudeau government and Liberal Party elites’ views on China and the Indo-Pacific, hopefully to the better, but challenges remain. Recently, after the Biden administration stepped up to support Canada on the ‘two Michaels,’ Trudeau in uncharacteristic language, called the charges against the Canadian hostages “trumped-up”, insinuated that the Chinese Ambassador to Canada was a liar, and suggested Canada join a group of like-minded countries to coordinate a unified response to Beijing on human rights abuses.
There is no question that the Canadian government must reset its sights from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific and change its more naïve views about President Xi’s intentions within the region. Canada needs to stand firm with its long-standing allies and trading partners to ensure stability and rule of law. This means allocating more resources towards collective defence to contain China. One or two ship visits for freedom of navigation operations are not going to cut it with our allies and reflects why ASEAN remains cool to Canadian engagement. There is a feeling that Canada is a dabbler or dilettante in Indo-Pacific affairs within the region and to an extent this view is correct.
The Trudeau government has not been successful on the international stage anywhere to date and has even sacrificed all the goodwill built up by his predecessor Prime Minister Stephen Harper with Modi’s India. Nevertheless, a golden opportunity exists for Canada in the aftermath of the recent Quad anti-submarine warfare exercise to put itself forward to join the Quad, but the question is — given its spotty performance to date — will Canada be welcome?
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Joe Varner is a former Director of Policy to Canada's Minister of Defence and an Adjunct Scholar at West Point's Modern War Institute. Image Credit: Wikimedia.