United by cause, divided by politics: Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir
United by cause, divided by politics: Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir
WRITTEN BY DR NAZIR AHMAD MIR
1 October 2024
After a decade-long hiatus, assembly elections for 90 seats are being conducted in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The polls are being held in three phases, on 18 and 25 September, and 1 October, and the votes are expected to be counted on 8 October. These elections have generated significant interest among the local population and have attracted attention at both national and international levels. Election rallies organised by candidates and political parties have drawn vibrant crowds, with enthusiasm at an unprecedented level.
The elections appear to be a referendum on the credibility of mainstream political leaders and the socio-political developments of the last five years. Local leaders suggest that the people of Jammu and Kashmir are keen to register their protest against the central government’s policies through their vote. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led union government claims that the enthusiastic participation, even from groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and some other pro-separatist voices who typically boycott elections, is a validation of its policies.
Regardless, the voting behaviour seen in the recent parliamentary elections and the current mood ahead of the assembly elections reveal some interesting trends. The dissent expressed in the parliamentary elections may resurface in the assembly polls. Many people in Jammu and Kashmir — particularly in Kashmir, though not necessarily all parts of Jammu — are angry, feeling betrayed and marginalised by a political elite that has failed them in times of need. Ironically, the local political leadership is playing the ’victim card’ more than the people themselves.
The fragile unity of mainstream parties
Mainstream regional political parties in Jammu and Kashmir — the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), People’s Conference (PC), Awami National Conference (ANC), and Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) (yet to be registered by the Election Commission of India) — have remained united in their stance that the reading down of Article 370 and Article 35a was unconstitutional and undemocratic. Therefore, when reports emerged that the BJP-led union government, after receiving an overwhelming national mandate in the 2019 parliamentary elections, was planning to abrogate Article 370 and 35a, all these parties rushed to unite in opposition to any such move. The leadership of the parties met on 4 August 2019 to oppose and formulate a strategy to deal with the situation, should it occur.
Despite unity in the cause and an awareness that the local population has rejected their traditional political approaches, these parties are unable to work constructively for the benefit of the local population. Once again, they seem to overlook the fact that their short-term, self-serving policies have come at a high cost to the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
Despite making some tentative efforts at unity early on, and subsequently forming the Gupkar Alliance in August 2020, there was neither a clear strategy to deal with the aftermath of the abrogation nor a plan to stay united. Soon, the fragile alliance began to disintegrate, with its leaders attacking each other ad hominem. Instead of remaining united against policies they all claimed were against the interests of the people of the Union Territory, they reverted to confrontational politics, blaming each other for the situation.
The NC accuses the PDP of paving the way for the BJP to enter Kashmir by forming an alliance with the party in 2014, while the PDP, in turn, reminds the NC of its participation in the A.B. Vajpayee-led central government in 1999. Sajad Lone of the PC, who was part of the PDP-BJP government (March 2015 - June 2018) and held a ministry from the BJP quota, was the first to leave the Gupkar Alliance.
New parties also emerged during this period: the formation of the Apni Party (AP) and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) created a little buzz. However, none of these developments — whether the weakening of the traditional parties or the emergence of new ones — has brought any major change on the ground. Once again, when the people of the Union Territory needed local leaders and parties to stay united, their political relevance and survival took precedence over everything else.
Political parties scramble to adjust
In the last five years, none of the political party leaders seemed to have a consistent stand on the issues they now claim to champion during the elections. Instead, they spent much of their time defending themselves against the tirade unleashed by various BJP leaders. Hardly any effort was made to connect with the people or address the situation on the ground. It appeared, eerily enough, that they felt the people had lost their voice.
As soon as the parliamentary election was announced, and sensing the prevailing mood, the political parties began putting forward candidates they believed could connect with the demands and desires of the local population. The 2024 general elections in the Union Territory have, in effect, brought the people back into focus. For instance, in the Srinagar constituency, instead of Omar Abdullah, the NC has fielded Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, who had taken a clear stand against the abrogation of Article 370 from the outset. The PDP fielded its young leader Waheed ur Rehman Para, who was in jail for more time than the other leaders. Omar Abdullah contested from Baramulla, under the pretext that Sajad Lone had challenged him — though, locals knew well that the delimitation, along with the changed political landscape, had stacked the odds against Sajad.
But the election for the Baramulla seat truly gained momentum only once Engineer Rashid entered the fray from jail, where he is under trial on terror financing charges. Rashid provided the rallying point the locals had been looking for, stealing the momentum from the mainstream political parties, who had relied on the narrative that they had been abandoned by the central government. Omar Abdullah even remarked that had he known Rashid would contest the seat, he would not have run himself. Engineer Rashid garnered about 4.5 lakh votes and defeated Omar, whose campaign failed to connect as powerfully with the voters. Rashid’s slogan, “jail ka badla vote se” (Jail will be avenged by vote), prevailed. Even in the Srinagar constituency, the election campaigns of Syed Rohullah and the runner-up PDP candidate largely focused on the events of 5 August 2019.
After losing the parliamentary election, former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah stated, “No. I am not contesting the assembly elections. I will not fight a UT election”. Yet now, he is contesting from two seats. Another former chief minister, Mehbooba Mufti, had also declared that she would not contest assembly elections in a union territory, but she has fielded her daughter, Ilteja Mufti, from their traditional constituency of Bijbehara in the Anantnag district. Meanwhile, the newly formed Apni Party and DPAP — formed to fill the vacuum created by the weakening and delegitimisation of traditional parties accused of being dynastic, corrupt, and failing to deliver — are also in the fray. Many leaders of the NC, PDP and Congress had shifted to these parties, but both seem to have failed to strike a chord with the masses. It will be interesting to see whether they can win any seats.
Will divisive politics prevail?
Engineer Rashid’s victory in the parliamentary election and the support that he has generated after being granted bail to campaign for the assembly elections, despite his party not even being officially registered, has taken many by surprise. Not only has he emerged as a serious challenge to mainstream political parties but also Rashid’s aggressive election campaign — focussed on issues like Article 370 and 35a, political prisoners, land and job rights, and the larger Kashmir issue — has also forced all parties to change their narrative. Previously, aside from a few vocal leaders, these political parties had shown little enthusiasm for these issues. In fact, during their first meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in June 2021 after the abrogation of Article 370, the regional leaders — including three former chief ministers — did not even mention the articles.
For the local population, the larger issue of the Kashmir conflict or geopolitics is of little consequence. To them, the assembly polls are all about who can identify with their desires and raise their demands fairly. In such a volatile socio-political environment, the mainstream traditional leaders are fighting for their political survival. The issues they believe will help them connect with the local sentiment — such as Articles 370 and 35a, political prisoners, and land and job rights — have now become central in the election campaign. In their respective party manifestos and speeches at rallies, all the regional leaders claim to be fighting for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s pre-5 August 2019 status. They argue that the election represents a battle in the fight for Jammu and Kashmir’s regional identity against the BJP-led assault.
Despite unity in the cause and an awareness that the local population has rejected their traditional political approaches, these parties are unable to work constructively for the benefit of the local population. Once again, they seem to overlook the fact that their short-term, self-serving policies have come at a high cost to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Engineer Rashid’s rising popularity, which they fear so much, should have served as a warning that, although material interests matter, elections are also a platform for people to express emotional attachments to key issues.
Sensing this threat, the regional political parties have followed Rashid’s lead, picking up the issues he has to strike a chord with the local population. This suggests that, while they share common ground on broader issues mistrust still prevails among local leaders. However, they label each other as agents of the central government, accusing one another of misleading the people. Major regional parties see Rashid’s bail and his vigorous campaign as part of a conspiracy intended to divide the local mandate. In their view, a hung assembly would allow the BJP to manoeuvre the fragmented mandate in its favour by wooing some winning candidates — especially independent ones backed by AIP — by offering them perks like ministries.
Nevertheless, the stakes are high for the local population in these assembly elections. Yet, it seems that degenerative politics may ultimately prevail. The elections have provided a platform for the people to voice their concerns, and if the political leaders fail once again to heed their message, the blame will rest squarely on their shoulders.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Nazir Ahmad Mir has a PhD in conflict analysis and peace building. He is a Delhi-based researcher and is a Nonresident Fellow at the Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies (RCAS), Hong Kong. His research areas are collective identity formation, ethnic conflicts and nationalism(s), international (critical) relations theory, and security and foreign policies of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan. Apart from publishing reviewed articles in Strategic Analysis, the Journal of Defence Studies, among others, Nazir has written opinion pieces on diverse issues for The Diplomat, Jacobin, Aljazeera, Frontline, South Asian Voices, Atlantic Council, The Print, IDSA, ICPS, among others. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Election Commission, Government of India.