The EU and its member states must defend the status quo in the Taiwan Strait
The EU and its member states must defend the status quo in the Taiwan Strait
WRITTEN BY ANTOINE BONDAZ
22 September 2020
The European Union (EU) and its member states (EUMS) must urgently transition from being passive observers to active players and adopt a coordinated strategy of credible commitments to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Too often, the EU and EUMS are encouraged to stay above the fray of regional security dynamics because they are not considered security actors in the Taiwan Strait. From a traditional European perspective, Taiwan is first and foremost a trade and economic partner. And rightly so; trade between the EU and Taiwan has increased more than eightfold over the past two decades, the EU is Taiwan's fourth trade partner, and Taiwan is the EU's seventh-largest trade partner in Asia and the island’s largest source of foreign investment. The very name of the EU's office in Taiwan along with the existing offices from 15 out of 27 EU member states, the European Economic and Trade Office (EETO), is quite telling.
Yet, economics is not the only cement in EU-Taiwan relations. Indeed, not only are peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait crucial for trade and economic relations to flourish, but Taiwan is also a key partner in many other fields, including research, climate change and education, and more importantly, a like-minded democracy with whom Europeans share core values. Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is a key interest for the EU and EUMS. A military conflict in the Taiwan Strait would entail heavy humanitarian consequences, tremendous economic disruptions, and would embolden authoritarian regimes to act aggressively in violation of international law.
A European awakening on China and the end of naivety
Europe is finally beginning to awaken and end its strategic narcissism regarding China. The idea that the Chinese political regime and economic system would gradually evolve in a more liberal direction no longer holds any water. The era of European naïveté is over and perceptions of China are now deteriorating — fast.
No one should underestimate the role Europeans can play in the security of Taiwan. Europe wishes to maintain the status quo. The risk calculation should be clear: losing Taiwan would come at an enormous cost. Europeans must therefore support like-minded democracies such as Taiwan.
EU-China relations are now viewed as “one of the most strategically important and one of the most challenging” by EU top officials such as President Von der Leyen. Europeans want to build a “geopolitical Commission” with the EU becoming a political and strategic player with one voice. Top officials can often be heard saying, the “Europe of peace” must also be the “Europe of power”. To this end, High Representative Joseph Borrell recently reaffirmed “given everything that’s happening in the world and the rise in authoritarian powers, it is important to have strong cooperation with like-minded democracies”.
Undoubtedly the EU and EUMS will continue to support the peaceful resolution of differences between Taipei and Beijing, and reject the use or threat of force. Europe does not intend to replace or compete directly with existing regional security actors that have provided stability to the Taiwan Strait over recent decades. The EU is already facing intense internal debate on the nature of its international commitments, especially in the field of security, with some countries pushing the EU to be more coordinated and prioritise the defence of European sovereignty.
Yet, despite limitations, no one should underestimate the role Europeans can play in the security of Taiwan. Europe wishes to maintain the status quo. The risk calculation should be clear: losing Taiwan would come at an enormous cost. Europeans must therefore support like-minded democracies such as Taiwan.
A European strategy of credible commitments to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait
Europe has long advocated for a comprehensive understanding of security. Rather than restricting security to the military domain, the concept should also include the maritime space, society, the economy, the environment, and human rights. These six dimensions of security cover many areas from information manipulation to freedom of navigation, diversification of global supply chains to cyberattacks, prevention of the next pandemics to natural disasters assistance and relief, democratic resilience to technology sovereignty, as well as the protection of minorities, including LGBT+ and gender equality.
Europe can play a role to help support Taiwan’s security in each of these dimensions. It should be noted this is not just about Taiwan's security or interests but about Europe's too. Indeed, Europeans should never let a country feel emboldened to violate international law and unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. It must not be forgotten that the EU and EUMS have various leverages, including economic and diplomatic ones. Any strategy of credible commitments to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait should be acceptable, feasible, effective, flexible and efficient enough to guarantee consensus at the EU-level while at the same time leaving the EUMS some room to manoeuvre.
There are five key policy objectives the EU must address in the short-term: (1) raising awareness in Europe about the situation in the Taiwan Strait and what is at stake; (2) giving a voice to European and Taiwanese officials and experts; (3) developing an understanding of common interests; (4) increasing cooperation and coordination at every level, but especially between civil societies; (5) fostering a new generation of young Europeans and Taiwanese to further strengthen bilateral ties.
An essential role played by respective civil societies, including think-tanks
Acknowledging these interests does not amount to a change in the nature of EU-Taiwan relations; rather, this would help relations evolve through a change in substance. Indeed, there is no debate on whether the EU and EUMS should abandon their own ‘One-China’ policy. However, both need to build on existing initiatives while bringing forward new initiatives. Cooperation and coordination among like-minded democracies, Taiwan is one of them, and will become even more important. With some concrete recommendations, the EU and EUMS can promote and sustain regional peace and stability. These should include a wide range of actors, and provide focused recommendations which civil society can implement.
Strengthening our declaratory diplomacy: The EU and EUMS must reaffirm, publicly, their support for maintaining the status quo and oppose any change that is not based on the will of the Taiwanese people. The EU and EUMS must convince Beijing that a unilateral change to the status quo would have a tremendous cost for China.
Improving our parliamentary diplomacy: The recent Czech parliamentary delegation illustrated the important role played by MPs. A joint delegation including MPs from different member states and MEPs should visit Taiwan.
Fostering research and understanding at the national level: There is a crucial need to increase European awareness and understanding of Taiwan. To support this, Europe needs dedicated research programs like the Foundation for Strategic Research’s new Taiwan Program on security and diplomacy.
Creating a European network of knowledge: To reach a critical mass, it is important to create a coalition of Europe-based think-tanks to facilitate European-wide initiatives with Taiwan.
Initiating a track 2.0 dialogue: European think-tanks need to initiate some track 2.0 dialogues with Taiwanese think-tanks on security issues, such as a maritime security dialogue, which could also cover trade and environmental dimensions, or a global supply chain security dialogue.
To succeed, the EU and EUMS must increase their commitment, which, in turn, should be met by Taiwan. The focus should not be only on the United States and some key partners such as Japan and Australia but also include Europe. In her inaugural speech last January, President Tsai stressed the importance of the international community for the future of Taiwan and recommended to “consider Taiwan a partner”. More than ever, Taiwan is becoming a key partner for Europe, and Europe a key partner for Taiwan.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Dr Antoine Bondaz is a Research Fellow and a Program Director at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), and an Associate Professor at Sciences Po Paris. His research focuses on China, Taiwan and Koreas’ foreign and security policy. He advises senior government officials in France and Europe and participates in numerous high-level track 1.5 dialogues with top Asian government officials. He has testified before the French National Assembly and Senate, the European Parliament, the OECD, NATO and at the UN. He participated in the 2020 Ketagalan Security Forum during which he urged Europeans to do more to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and to increase cooperation with Taiwan. Image Credit: Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan)