Pakistan’s election — a primer
Pakistan’s election — A primer
WRITTEN BY DR FILIPPO BONI
5 February 2024
“If I were not ousted from the PM office, the country would be prosperous, and there would be no inflation”. With these words, former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif opened his campaign in Hafizabad in January, roughly three weeks ahead of the country going to the polls. His return to active politics, following a controversial disqualification by the Supreme Court in July 2017, marked an important moment in the run-up to the election.
Pakistan is scheduled to hold its twelfth general election on 8 February, amid a deteriorating security situation in parts of the country, allegations of an uneven playing field against the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and with China and the United States waiting to find out who will lead the next Pakistani government.
The tables have turned
Imran Khan, by far the country’s most popular politician and former Prime Minister, has been behind bars for the past six months under various charges. On 30 January, a little over a week before the election, he was sentenced to 10 years in jail alongside former foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, for allegedly leaking state secrets. Since he was ousted from power in April 2022, Khan has been at loggerheads with the military establishment, despite claims of the latter being behind Khan’s ascent to power in 2018.
According to claims by the PTI, the powerful military now favours the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the party of three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, leading to an uneven electoral playing field. It is interesting to note that the same allegations that the PTI is now advancing had previously been made by the PML-N against the PTI in the run-up to 2018. At that time, Nawaz Sharif was in jail (like Imran Khan is today), his party’s leadership was weakened, and the PTI was on the rise with the alleged support of the military establishment. The tables have now turned.
Regardless of who emerges victorious from the electoral contest, the next government has an uphill battle in tackling inflation, getting the economy back on its feet, and handling complex domestic and regional security environments.
Most of the establishment’s efforts seem to be directed at preventing Imran Khan and his party from contesting the election. In the latest of a series of moves, the PTI was banned from using their iconic cricket bat logo on ballot papers, which — in a country where the electorate is up to 40 per cent illiterate — deals a significant blow to the party’s electoral prospects. PTI candidates will now have to contest as independents.
The efforts to keep the PTI out of power seem to be paying off. According to a Gallup poll, in March 2023, the gap between the PTI and the PML-N was 21 per cent in favour of the PTI. In the latest report in early January, the gap has narrowed to two per cent. However, Imran Khan remains the most popular leader (57 per cent of those surveyed have a positive view of him, 52 per cent of Nawaz Sharif). Additionally, the PTI is still in the lead at 34 per cent in Punjab — the province that has the highest number of seats in the national assembly — and at 45 per cent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Between the PTI and the PML-N, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and its leader, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, are also in the mix — although trailing behind the other two. The Bhutto heir is campaigning on a progressive platform, foregrounding climate change as one of the key issues for Pakistan.
Media, elections, and security
Media freedom has come under threat during the electoral campaign. In a number of instances, internet users could not access social media in the run-up to and during events organised by the PTI, which had a significant impact on the party’s campaigning efforts and its ability to reach the younger segments of the electorate. This resulted in the establishment of the ‘Coalition for Free Media’, an alliance by a number of national and provincial media associations, including the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ) and the Council of Pakistan Newspaper Editors (CPNE). The alliance aims to resist what has been labelled as “the continuous degradation of the freedom of information in the country”.
Security concerns are also paramount. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is facing a precarious security situation and there have been repeated calls to postpone the election given the difficulties for candidates to campaign in this province. The threat from militant groups such as the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has increased significantly, leaving candidates and voters at high risk of attacks.
Similarly, in Balochistan, threats from separatist militant groups have resulted in a series of attacks on candidates, with district administrators in various parts of the province issuing warnings about potential attacks on political leaders. Balochistan was also the epicentre of the bilateral crisis between Pakistan and Iran, following the latter’s missile strike inside Pakistan’s territory in mid-January and Islamabad’s retaliation. Amid Iran-Pakistan tensions, there were speculations that these might have led to a postponement of the election, but none of this has actually materialised.
The view from Beijing and Washington
Beyond Pakistan’s borders, the results of the country’s election will be watched closely by regional countries (with India going to polls later this year), as well as the US. Building on long-standing Sino-Pakistani bilateral ties, Pakistan is a key artery of the global infrastructure push under the Belt and Road Initiative through the USD 30 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Following the 2018 election, the CPEC witnessed a slowdown and a recalibration in line with then-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s pledge to improve socio-economic development in Pakistan. While Chinese diplomats in Pakistan have pledged to work with any government emerging from the election, the prospect of Nawaz Sharif’s return to power (whose relationship with China was extremely cordial and de facto kickstarted the CPEC) would be welcomed in Beijing.
As far as the US is concerned, since Khan was ousted, Pakistan’s political and military leadership has tried to mend fences with the country following a challenging period in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. President Joe Biden has not engaged with the latest two Pakistani prime ministers (with the exception of an interaction with Shahbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the 77th Session of the UN General Assembly in 2022) — a clear signal that Pakistan is no longer a priority in the US foreign policy calculus. A new leadership in Islamabad might represent an opportunity for a renewed engagement, although the US election at the end of the year adds another element of uncertainty about what the future might hold for US-Pakistan relations.
The way ahead
At the time of writing, the most likely scenario emerging from Pakistan’s election seems to be a coalition government, with independents playing a significant role in deciding who is going to form the government. Regardless of who emerges victorious from the electoral contest, the next government has an uphill battle in tackling inflation, getting the economy back on its feet, and handling complex domestic and regional security environments. We will soon find out whether the onus will fall for the fourth time on Nawaz Sharif or whether the PTI will manage to galvanise voters and snatch what today seems an unlikely win.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Dr Filippo Boni is a Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Studies at the Open University, UK. He is the author of Sino-Pakistani Relations: Politics, Military and Regional Dynamics (Routledge, 2019) and the co-editor of the forthcoming volume China, Pakistan and the Belt and Road Initiative: The experience of an early adopted state (Routledge, 2024). His work on Pakistan has been published in Regional and Federal Studies, Asian Survey, Asia Policy, and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, among others. Image credit: Unsplash/Ali Muhammad.