Diverting from China: Cambodia’s foreign policy in a new era
Diverting from China: Cambodia’s foreign policy in a new era
WRITTEN BY CHHAY LIM AND KIMPOR TRY
3 July 2024
With China’s growing economic and geopolitical influence reverberating across Southeast Asia, nowhere is this influence felt more deeply than in Cambodia. Over the last few decades, Cambodia has visibly moved closer to China, endorsing Chinese global agendas, and serving China’s regional interests.
The bilateral relationship reached its political pinnacle in 2010, when they elevated their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, raising China to the highest status in Cambodia’s three-tier diplomatic hierarchy. Today, the two countries continue to enjoy a relationship with a high degree of political trust, extensive governmental interaction, and robust inter-party connections between the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and the Chinese Communist Party. They describe their relationship as an “unbreakable ironclad friendship”, and invaluable like a “diamond”.
Considering this state of affairs, it is unsurprising to see international mainstream media portraying Cambodia as a Chinese client state. However, this perspective tends to overlook Phnom Penh's domestic rationale for its relationship with Beijing, as well as its efforts to diversify its partnerships and pursue an independent foreign policy stance on the global stage.
An ‘ironclad friend’
At present, China’s presence in Cambodia is not solely about economic influence. It also reflects Beijing’s aspirations for international support for its global governance models and alternatives to the current global order, with Cambodia a potential recipient and supporter. China recognises Cambodia as an important focal point for shoring up its influence in Southeast Asia, given the former’s tense relationships with claimant states in the South China Sea issue.
While there is leeway for Cambodia to hedge and pursue an independent foreign policy, the new government under Hun Manet has no choice but to continue diversifying strategic and economic partners.
Since Xi Jinping became president in 2012, China’s foreign policy has shifted confidently towards taking a more assertive stance in global affairs. In its competition with the US, China has also endeavoured to present itself as a benevolent power both globally and regionally. China has progressively used economic statecraft and discursive power to engage with other nations, particularly those in the Global South, by presenting alternative ideas and frameworks for international relations. In Southeast Asia, Beijing found Phnom Penh to be a strong ally in receiving the benefits of and promoting its normative and discursive powers. This has finally brought Cambodia the distinction of an “ironclad friendship”, making it a steadfast ally on issues of great strategic importance to Beijing.
While neighbouring Southeast Asian states continue to have a rather ambivalent and cautious stance about China’s initiatives, Cambodia was the first state to support the Chinese global initiatives such as the recent Global Security Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative. These initiatives are meant to help China achieve global primacy by becoming more assertive in shaping international order. Like former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who views these initiatives as "of great significance to maintain world peace and promote common development", Prime Minister Hun Manet has also praised Xi’s strategic vision for global development.
Most notably, Cambodia was among the first foreign countries to embrace the Chinese concept of a ‘community of shared future’, and renewed the second action plan under Hun Manet’s government. Even under the current administration, China has received assurance that its global agenda, especially the 'One China' principle, considered a red-line foreign policy, has strong endorsement from the Cambodian government.
The domestic determinants of Cambodia’s China policy
Cambodia's foreign policy regarding China should not solely be analysed through the lens of the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. It is crucial to consider Cambodia's domestic priorities to fully grasp the significance of its alignment towards China.
In recent decades, Cambodian ruling elites have come to acknowledge the paramount importance of ensuring the stability and survival of their regime. Maintaining this stability hinges on securing strong public legitimacy, which is largely contingent upon sustained economic performance. Significantly, the ruling party faced legitimacy challenges following the Cambodian general elections in 2013, where it experienced significant losses to the opposition. However, in 2018, it regained momentum with a landslide victory, and the new government was led solely by the ruling CPP. Despite this, the CPP continued to grapple with legitimacy deficits. The West's ongoing economic pressure in response to Cambodia's perceived democratic deterioration pushed the country closer to China's sphere of engagement. Recognising the urgent need for additional resources to fulfil promises of sustained economic performance, the ruling elite has sought closer ties with China. From 2018 to 2021, China pledged USD 588 million in aid to Cambodia, with over USD 100 million designated for military expenditure, after Cambodia decided to suspend the Angkor Sentinel military exercise with the US, and the subsequent withdrawal of military aid by Washington in 2018. By 2024, Cambodia had received USD 17.7 billion in aid from China.
Hun Manet has assumed leadership as the country faces significant economic challenges. His government needs to continue the trajectory of infrastructure and logistics capacity development as Cambodia prepares for its future economic transition. China has emerged as the sole option at this critical juncture. In contrast to the West, Chinese aid comes with no strings attached, and poses a limited threat to Hun Manet's political survival and his party's legitimacy. Such assistance instils a sense of comfort among the ruling elite as they believe it will continue to support Cambodian developmental needs without imposing unwelcome conditions.
China’s economic assistance, in the eyes of Cambodian elites, helps strengthen Cambodia's capacity to push back against its more powerful neighbours, Thailand and Vietnam, especially in matters concerning national security. This has been particularly evident in China’s assistance to Cambodia during the Preah Vihear border conflict with Thailand in 2007, and Cambodia’s recent strong reaction against Vietnam regarding the controversial China-funded Funan-Techo Canal Project, which the latter is geopolitically anxious about. Consequently, Hun Manet's China policy will not only uphold the trajectory established by his father, driven by economic legitimacy needs but also strive to cultivate stronger ties between the two nations.
A small state navigates great power politics
The current complex geopolitical landscape reflects a challenging diplomatic tightrope that Cambodia walks each day. On one side, there's China, with its economy and investments beckoning. On the other side is the United States and the West, an unavoidable strategic partner, but often attached to its longstanding principles of democracy and human rights advocacy. Amid this high-wire act, one thing is abundantly clear: Cambodia cannot afford to alienate either of these global powers.
As geopolitical dynamics evolve, Cambodia remains steadfast in its pursuit of a balanced and pragmatic approach to diplomacy. Its new ‘multi-dimensional approach’ to strategic engagement embraces economic diplomacy, diversifies partners, reduces potential risks, and ensures foreign policy flexibility. For instance, Cambodia, under both Hun Sen and Hun Manet’s administrations, has shown that it avoids overreliance on China by cultivating a potential ‘third way’, which involves developing relationships with states such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Its relationship with Japan serves as an important strategic pillar in its policy towards great powers, especially amid the US-China rivalry, by offering a good geopolitical alternative. Meanwhile, with the recently upgraded ties with South Korea and Thailand, friendly gestures towards the West, and active regional diplomacy, Hun Manet is creating a new momentum of diversification under the current government.
Cambodia is also striving to contribute to regional unity while taking an independent foreign policy stance on the global stage. First, following accusations of being a Chinese client state during its 2012 ASEAN Chairmanship, Cambodia has sought ASEAN recognition for its substantial contributions to regional unity. It deserves credit for successfully hosting the 2022 ASEAN Chairmanship amid unprecedented geopolitical challenges, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and the military coup in Myanmar. Cambodia effectively engaged all major powers at the ASEAN table during this period. Second, Cambodia's independent foreign policy was demonstrated by its strong stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. It joined the United Nations in co-sponsoring resolutions condemning the Russian invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territory, impressing both its neighbours and Western nations with its stance. Interestingly, most other mainland Southeast Asian countries chose to abstain from these resolutions. Third, Cambodia backs all Japanese global initiatives such as the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, despite criticism from China and other states.
Understanding Cambodia’s China policy requires considering the rationales of the country’s ruling elites. China will remain a significant presence with its enormous economic resources for Cambodian socio-economic development, which the ruling elites perceive as being offered with no strings attached. However, this does not imply that China is the ‘whole story’ in Cambodia’s foreign policy. While Cambodia keeps its door open, it understands all too well the importance of maintaining amicable relations with all major players on the world stage. While there is leeway for Cambodia to hedge and pursue an independent foreign policy, the new government under Hun Manet has no choice but to continue diversifying strategic and economic partners. Hun Manet's diversification strategy, if successful, will leave a lasting foreign policy legacy and serve as an effective means to restore Cambodia's reputation, which has been tarnished by perceptions of being a Chinese client state over the past decade.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biographies
Chhay Lim is a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies of the Institute for International Studies and Public Policy, Royal University of Phnom Penh. He is also a Young Leader for the Pacific Forum International and a Japanese Government-MEXT scholar at Ritsumeikan University.
Kimpor Try is an independent researcher based in Cambodia, where he assists in research projects on China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its implications for Cambodian development. Image credit: Flickr/Prachatai.