COP 27: India could be the key to deadlocked debates on loss and damage due to climate change
COP 27: India could be the key to deadlocked debates on loss and damage due to climate change
WRITTEN BY MIRIAM PRYS-HANSEN AND JAN PHILLIP RONDE
16 November 2022
On 20 September, Denmark became the first developed country in the world to provide financial compensation to developing countries for ‘loss and damage’ caused by climate change. The country pledged approximately EUR 13 million (100 million Danish krone) to civil society organisations based in developing nations working on climate change-related loss and damage. This is remarkable since the Global North has been rejecting demands from developing countries for financial compensation beyond adaptation finance for decades.
With this development, can we expect the 27th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP27) — which is taking place in Sharm El-Sheikh (Egypt) right now — to be an institutional turning point for climate change resultant loss and damage (L&D)? Progress on the issue of L&D could benefit from clear engagement by the ‘in-between powers’ in the Global South, such as India, who may be in a position to exert a decisive influence on the outcomes of the talks.
The contested institutional history of loss and damage
Developing countries, NGOs, and the global climate movement have been calling for financial compensation for a long time. In contrast to climate mitigation and adaptation, funding for L&D targets the irreversible damage that has already been caused by climate change. It acknowledges the reality that climate change is already affecting countries and people — especially in the Global South — and that industrialised countries bear the historical responsibility for this.
Progress on the issue of loss and damage could benefit from clear engagement by the ‘in-between powers’ in the Global South, such as India, who may be in a position to exert a decisive influence on the outcomes of the COP27 talks.
L&D has been on the agenda of international conferences since 1991. In terms of institutional developments, the COP19 conference in 2013 established the Warsaw Mechanism for Loss and Damage, which is supposed to enhance global understanding of climate risk, promote transnational dialogue and cooperation, and strengthen “action and support”. However, an agreement on how to fund the economic and non-economic damage resulting from climate change is yet to be reached.
At the COP26 conference in 2021, developing countries pushed for the establishment of a financing facility for the loss of lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure caused by climate impacts. Yet, this initiative lacked sufficient support, especially from larger developed countries such as the US and the EU. Despite showing a readiness to discuss “climate reparations” as recently as October 2022, US representatives have continued to highlight the importance of using existing channels for financing loss and damage, including the Green Climate Fund, disaster risk reduction funds, and humanitarian aid. These are all based on national voluntary contributions and ignore the historical responsibility that industrialised countries have for climate change. Many other industrialised countries have also highlighted the importance of continued dialogue, as foreseen in the ‘Glasgow Dialogue on Loss and Damage’ (established at the COP26 conference).
At the Bonn Climate Change Conference in June 2022, L&D was also the most contested issue on the table. The least developed countries (LDCs) fought to include discussions about L&D in the agenda but developed countries disagreed even on this procedural issue. This caused outrage among developing nations, as well as civil society organisations, who highlighted that major countries like Germany were “sourcing new fossil fuels abroad while denying support to developing countries facing devastation from climate-induced superstorms and rising sea levels”.
A trend reversal?
Despite these onerous circumstances, there is reason to believe that Denmark’s move may mark the beginning of a trend. In a remarkable turn of events, the United States showed at least rhetorical readiness to discuss climate reparations, and German Special Envoy for Climate Change Jennifer Morgen was selected, together with Chilean Minister for the Environment Maisa Rojas, to develop a proposal to include L&D on the COP27 agenda. After much debate, L&D was confirmed as a separate discussion point on the agenda of the COP27 conference.
In addition, the G7 has announced, in cooperation with the V20 (the 20 most climate-vulnerable states worldwide), the launch of a “global shield against climate risks”, which can be seen as a first step in the direction of L&D at the COP27 conference. However, it remains unclear whether these developments will lead to the breakthrough that is needed by many in the Global South. For this to happen, rich countries in the developed world and the poorest and most affected countries in the Global South will need to engage in politically demanding negotiations to find a suitable compromise.
Environmental emergencies across the globe could make an agreement on loss and damage at the COP27 conference more likely. Shocks such as heat waves in Europe, tropical storms in Madagascar (like Cyclone Batsirai), or the devastating floods in Pakistan this year show the ever-increasing necessity for climate justice — including compensation for the (most) vulnerable. Yet, the climate crisis is happening alongside extreme geopolitical uncertainty caused by an ongoing global pandemic, increasing tensions between the US and China, and, above all, an outright war of attrition in Ukraine.
Across nations, issues of energy security, economic decline, and inflation are also likely counteracting the drive towards more ambitious climate action like L&D, and will certainly impact the readiness and ability to provide resources for L&D and beyond. This includes the present push for national energy self-sufficiency that involves continuing to use coal.
Therefore, even if we assume that the time is right for L&D and that concrete proposals for a new “Loss and Damage Finance Facility” are in place (with a considerable coalition of state and non-state actors lobbying for this idea), the geopolitical context alone leaves many question marks about how things will unfold in Sharm El-Sheikh this month.
The major meetings of the past months (including the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September, where climate change was supposed to be the focal topic) may have given an unfortunate taster of how much the climate crisis has faded into the background of international politics. The G20 Environmental and Climate Ministers’ Meeting in August 2022 in Bali was also not able to agree on a joint communiqué to conclude their negotiations.
A time to shine for India as the ‘in-between’ power
This uncertainty suggests a necessity for leadership and engagement by key actors that may help to bring about new institutional developments and develop a widely accepted compromise. While the positions of established actors in this debate — LDCs on the one hand, and big industrialised states on the other — may be difficult to move, it is likely that ‘in-between’ actors like India can become crucial in finding solutions to the stalemate.
As one of the diplomatic heavyweights of the Global South, India has so far neither demanded nor rejected calls for L&D funding. Instead, the country has a long history of emphasising the responsibility of the Global North to provide finance and technology to developing countries more broadly. Against this background, India is in a special position to use its diplomatic leverage to increase pressure on developed countries and urge the EU and other negotiating partners to engage with developing countries on an equal footing.
India’s comparatively high willingness to assume voluntary responsibility — for instance, in its domestic expansion of solar energy — puts it on track to overachieve on its UN climate targets and into a moral position to be able to pressure larger polluters. Furthermore, South Asia has experienced one of the most fatal summers in recent decades. In Pakistan, floods left a third of the country under water while an exceptional heatwave hit India, leading to severe drought and forest fires.
If India builds upon its first-hand experiences of the consequences of irreversible loss of life, homes, and infrastructures, while using its moral-leadership position among developing countries, it is likely to play a crucial role in helping to push for progress in developing an L&D financial facility. Through its key role in establishing the International Solar Alliance, the country has already proven its central interest in South-South cooperation and in enabling green transitions in LDCs, above all in Africa.
Additionally, India has attached great importance to its climate leadership and has gained a considerable reputation (for instance, Prime Minister Modi received the Champions of the Earth Award in 2019 for India’s leadership in terms of climate action). The country has also embraced a rather progressive approach to disaster management, and could thus provide important expertise, credibility, and (moral) power to the process. Bridges between LDCs and industrialised states need to be built. Aside from all the reasons above, India’s democratic credentials (as compared to China’s) may give it a unique chance to take on this role, serving both its own and global interests.
However, the decision of Prime Minister Modi not to travel to Egypt in person might be a sign that his government may be unwilling to strongly advocate for a diplomatic solution to the contestation on L&D. Yet, this does not change the fact that the current process in Sharm El-Sheikh needs states like India to turn the uncertain geopolitical situation into a window of opportunity, to put an end to the process that has been stuck for decades.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biographies
Dr Miriam Prys-Hansen is a Lead Research Fellow and the Head of Research Programme 4: Global Orders and Foreign Policies at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies. Her research interests include climate diplomacy, BRICS, and especially India’s role as a global and regional power.
Jan Phillip Ronde is a master’s student at the University of Tübingen and a research intern at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies. His work focuses on climate change governance and its implications for security and conflict. Image credit: Flickr/UNClimateChange.