Can the Kuomintang return to power in Taiwan?
Can the Kuomintang Return to Power in Taiwan?
WRITTEN BY MICHAEL CANNINGS
7 December 2020
In 2016 the future looked bleak for the Kuomintang (KMT). Growing Taiwanese discontent during the waning days of the Ma Ying-jeou administration fed into catastrophic performances in the elections of 2014 and 2016. In two years the KMT had gone from controlling the presidency, the legislature, and two-thirds of the most important municipalities to losing everything except one major city. Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had won the 2016 presidential election in a landslide, finishing a full twenty-five percentage points ahead of her KMT rival.
Obituaries for the Kuomintang were quickly penned. The party’s vast reserves of wealth were targeted by legislation that sought to confiscate illegitimately acquired assets dating to the four-plus decades of autocratic rule. The KMT was out of step with the public on what political scientist Nathan Batto calls the ‘one dominant political cleavage’ in Taiwan: relations with China. And the party lacked both compelling politicians with a national platform and the opportunities to nurture new voices, having lost most of the major mayoral posts which traditionally act as springboards to national prominence. The 2018 elections provided evidence of a modest recovery, but most of that forward momentum was undone in 2020.
In recent elections, the voters have punished the KMT for appearing too close to the Chinese Communist Party. Opinion polls consistently show the Taiwanese people overwhelmingly want to remain separate from mainland China.
Still, rumours of the Kuomintang’s political demise are premature. One reason the party remains a force is that there isn’t really another option. The electoral system effectively ensures that while minor parties have some space to operate the KMT and DPP are very difficult to displace as the two major parties. If voters turn away from the DPP it will be to the benefit of the KMT. And there’s ample room for the DPP to implode. Aside from a primary challenge to her own position in 2019, President Tsai has mostly managed to keep a lid on the factional in-fighting that was a feature of the party before her tenure. But the presidency is limited to two terms, and there’s no guarantee that the fragile peace will hold once the race to replace her begins in earnest. The DPP is a big tent, and particularly nasty fights could develop along one or more axes: formal independence versus the status quo, rural versus urban, conservative versus progressive.
The current popularity of the Tsai administration is also unlikely to last. The country’s stunning success in dealing with Covid-19, with just seven deaths since the pandemic began, will have faded into the background by 2024. The recent gamble to allow the import of US pork could be a factor — if Taiwan cannot clinch some kind of trade deal with the US — the controversy could return to bite the DPP. Tsai may also feel that action is required on other unpopular issues like raising fuel and utility rates, banning polluting vehicles, or increasing National Health Insurance contributions.
A route to power for the KMT
In recent elections, the voters have punished the KMT for appearing too close to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Opinion polls consistently show the Taiwanese people overwhelmingly want to remain separate from mainland China. A disavowal of the 1992 Consensus, a controversial construct which identifies Taiwan as part of China, might help to move the KMT towards the political centre, but a recent party congress only succeeded in diluting the formulation slightly and satisfying nobody. Interim party chair Johnny Chiang has a reputation as a reformer, but in order to overhaul the KMT and make them electable again, he faces two significant challenges: winning reelection himself in August 2021 and overcoming the hardline elements inside the party.
The mayoral elections in 2022 will give the KMT a chance to progress. The party’s prospects of reclaiming the Taipei mayoralty look strong and they have an excellent chance of retaining New Taipei. If they can also keep hold of Taichung and take Taoyuan they will push the DPP back to their southern heartlands and control four of the six most important regions of Taiwan.
Then for 2024, the KMT will need to select a moderate as a presidential candidate and work hard to win back trust at the local level in order to retake the legislature. Picking the right person for the top job is tricky: internal politics mean that nationally popular candidates can be passed over for someone who both cleaves closer to the party orthodoxy and who comes from the waishengren minority (people who arrived in Taiwan at the end of the Chinese civil war, and their descendants). For example, New Taipei mayor Hou You-yi might work out well — he’s not a hardcore nationalist, generally liked by the public, and he has outperformed the rest of the party in recent elections. But he’s not waishengren, and that may prove a problem for a party that has selected waishengren presidential candidates in every election since 2004.
Next, the focus will turn to election strategy. Messaging can coalesce around economic competence, anti-corruption, and exploiting wedge issues like marriage equality with older, more conservative DPP voters. The KMT may also take some solace in the fact that since the advent of democracy in Taiwan a term-limited president leaving office has always been followed by a president from the other party. The pendulum swings, governments feel stale, and the voters want a change.
It’s not an easy road for the Kuomintang and a lot of things have to go their way between now and 2024. But if anything is fundamental to the DNA of the party, it is survival. It would be unwise to write them off.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Michael Cannings is the co-founder of Camphor Press, a British–Taiwanese publisher of books about East Asia. Image Credit: Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan)/Flickr.