What does the forced deportation of Afghan refugees hold for Pakistan?
What does the forced deportation of Afghan refugees hold for Pakistan?
WRITTEN BY MANSOOR SADAT
5 November 2024
In October 2023, Pakistan announced its decision to deport undocumented Afghan refugees beginning November 2023 to Afghanistan. Afghan refugees have been displaced for over four decades, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979 and continuing through subsequent conflicts. According to the Pakistani government, the country currently hosts about 3 million Afghan refugees of which nearly 2.4 million have some form of legal documentation.
Pakistan's decision to repatriate Afghan refugees is driven by security concerns in the border areas along Afghanistan, particularly the Pakhtunkhwa region. There has been a surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of supporting the anti-Pakistan insurgency, particularly Tahreek-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP), which has conducted deadly attacks against Pakistani armed forces.
However, the decision has sparked considerable backlash and serious discussions from various quarters including Pakistani activists, lawyers and politicians who demonstrated against the act and warned the government about the hardships awaiting the returnees in Afghanistan. Likewise, there have been some strong reactions from political parties and movements in Pakistan; for instance, PTM and Awami National Party protested and slammed this policy. Many of the refugees themselves, particularly those who went to seek refuge in Pakistan urged the United Nations to review the decision.
The forced return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is a complex issue given the political history between the two nations. Reports show that about 541,000 Afghan refugees were forced to leave in the first phase initiated on 1 November 2023 while more than 80,000 are expected to be forcefully deported in the second phase started on 15th April 2024. The Pakistani government has not offered a pathway for legalising undocumented refugees.
The excuse for repatriation
Islamabad claims that the presence of refugees, who are not registered with the National Database & Registration Authority (NADRA) through the UNHCR, complicates its efforts to tighten and maintain its internal security. By returning Afghan refugees, Pakistan aims to avoid or reduce potential cross-border terrorism as well as militant infiltration. However, most of the refugees affected are in areas such as Punjab and Karachi where security is stable, and have Afghan Citizenship Cards that allow them to reside legally in Pakistan.
Options for returnees are limited. Faced with a repressive regime in Afghanistan, many risk fleeing once again, potentially taking dangerous, illegal routes to other countries in search of safety.
The aim of these deportations is apparently to put direct pressure on the Taliban. For years, Pakistan had been considered a safe haven for the Afghan Taliban, which fought the government in Afghanistan for two decades. Furthermore, their relations with the Taliban are usually described as “father and son”, characterised by a mixture of cooperation and shared interests; indeed, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supported the Mujahideen and Taliban through five decades of war in Afghanistan, and the former Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan described the victory of the Taliban as “breaking the shackles of slavery”. However, mistrust between the two countries appears to have grown in the last two years, with both parties blaming each other for security incidents across the Durand Line. Pakistan seems to be now losing ground to India, which is expanding its engagement with the Taliban government. To curb India’s influence in Afghanistan and align it with its own interests, Islamabad may be using tactics like the forced return of refugees.
Repatriating and securitising Afghan refugees presents a dilemma for Pakistan. While aiming to secure its borders, it risks creating new security challenges by pushing marginalised Afghans into a destabilised Afghanistan, potentially fuelling cross-border terrorism and separatism in regions like Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, prolonging the cycle of insecurity.
Political uncertainty in Pakistan, especially following Imran Khan’s softer approach towards Afghan refugees, seems a key factor behind the repatriation. Rising nationalism and populist rhetoric often scapegoat Afghan refugees, particularly those with Pashtun roots, for issues like crime, unemployment, and social unrest. The Pashtun Tahfuz Movement (PTM), has criticised the state’s double standards and injustices against Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line. In response to PTM’s opposition to state-sponsored terrorism, the government launched a military operation, “Azm-e-Istehkam”, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, viewed as an attempt to oppress the Pashtun minority. Meanwhile, despite the presence of 70 terrorist organisations in Punjab, Pakistan continues to use Pashtun territories as a front for counter-terrorism efforts.
The repatriation also responds to domestic pressure, as the opportunist government seeks to placate its citizens by taking action against ‘foreign burdens’ to distract from its own failures. While politically expedient, this populist tactic risks deepening societal divisions and fuelling xenophobic attitudes, further undermining social cohesion in Pakistan. By using refugees as a political tool, Pakistan is alienating a large population of Afghan Pashtuns who have lived in the country for decades and helped build a marginalised community with lasting ties to both countries. Though this strategy may offer some short-term political gains, it is likely to erode long-term social stability.
The economic rationale for repatriation argues that Afghan refugees strain public services and infrastructure. A Pakistani official claimed that hosting refugees cost the economy 413.3 US billion dollars, but this is misleading. Afghan refugees have contributed significantly to Pakistan’s economy, particularly in the informal sector, such as carpet production. Many have established businesses and created jobs, helping to fill crucial labour gaps. The anti-refugee narrative ignores their economic contributions and dismisses their integration into local economies.
The concerns with repatriation
Pakistan’s policy of repatriating thousands of Afghan refugees to an unstable Afghanistan, governed by a group that is yet to get formal recognition, is an immoral act and a total violation of human rights. International law — specifically the “non-refoulement” principle — strictly prohibits returning refugees to places where their fundamental rights are threatened, and where they may be subject to any kind of violence. There have been reports about refugees facing police harassment, unlawful detentions, bribes and arbitrary arrests which were condemned by human rights organisations.
Six hundred to eight hundred thousand Afghans reportedly fled the country after the August 2021 Taliban takeover to seek refuge in Pakistan. According to human rights organisations, returning these refugees back to Afghanistan will expose them to the risk of prosecution. Consequently, from the perspective of international law and human rights, this policy represents a serious ethical dilemma. While the security and political concerns of the Pakistani government may be valid, they cannot justify the forced return of refugees to a country where their safety is not guaranteed. It also damages Pakistan's image as a country that has been a home for millions of refugees with a degree of hospitality. This dilemma highlights the tension between international humanitarian obligations and national sovereignty — a balance that the Pakistan government has yet to achieve.
The Taliban government is already struggling with internal chaos and challenges in providing services to its people. Now, it faces the added burden of reintegrating hundreds of thousands of returnees from Pakistan. Given the historical ties and expectations of loyalty between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Taliban may perceive this policy as a betrayal, further straining relations. The forced return could be viewed as a disregard for Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis undermining the Taliban’s efforts to stabilise the country.
Additionally, the forced repatriation complicates Pakistan’s ability to influence the Taliban, particularly on issues critical to its national security, such as border management and counterterrorism. This move may even push the Taliban to strengthen ties with regional powers like India, further escalating tensions. Anti-Pakistan sentiment is already high among Afghans, largely due to Islamabad’s military operations targeting the TTP on Afghan soil. Returning refugees are likely to intensify these feelings, adding more fuel to the fire.
The repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is more than just a response to the region’s border challenges. Driven by security concerns, populist politics, and economic pressures, this policy highlights Pakistan’s struggle to balance internal stability with its diplomatic and humanitarian obligations.
A bleak future for returnees
The returnees are a diverse group; many of them are families who have lived in Pakistan for decades. For them, returning to Afghanistan means facing an abandoned homeland rife with unemployment and homelessness. Their future is deeply uncertain, especially under the Taliban’s harsh rule, which will be difficult for families who adopted more liberal lifestyles. additionally, many of the returnees may face persecution due to their ties to the former government, though no such incidents have been reported so far. However, women are particularly vulnerable, facing the harsh reality of restricted rights, including bans on education and employment.
Options for returnees are limited. Faced with a repressive regime in Afghanistan, many risk fleeing once again, potentially taking dangerous, illegal routes to other countries in search of safety.
The expected diplomatic fallout with the Taliban only adds to an already fraught situation. The consequences — especially regarding border management, counterterrorism, rising anti-Pakistan sentiment, and growing separatism — could spiral beyond the control of both governments. Forcing refugees back into an unstable Afghanistan, under an unrecognised government, underscores the need for a cooperative regional approach. This requires not only the Pakistani government but also the international community to engage in dialogue and establish mechanisms to protect refugees.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Mansoor Sadat is an Afghan independent researcher and writer based in Spain, with a particular focus on Afghanistan. Image credit: UN Women Asia and the Pacific.