Myanmar is slipping towards balkanisation
Myanmar is slipping towards Balkanisation
WRITTEN BY OPHELIA YUMLEMBAM
27 August 2024
On 25 June 2024, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) relaunched its Operation 1027 against the Junta in Myanmar's northern Shan State, following a brief Chinese-brokered ceasefire. The TNLA has also accused the Junta of breaching the ceasefire agreement with frequent airstrikes and bombardments. Operation 1027 is a joint coordinated offensive launched in October 2023 by three ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) — the Arakan Army (AA), the TNLA, and the Myanmar Democratic National Alliance Army (MNDAA). This operation, along with other independently fighting EAOs, has achieved significant territorial gains in Myanmar in recent months, particularly in border regions. However, the exact number of captured townships remains contested, with estimates suggesting roughly two-thirds of the total townships.
Intensifying clashes between junta and resistance forces, coupled with growing tensions among various ethnic resistance groups, cast a long shadow over the country's future. While the resistance has made great strides, a closer look unravels the multiple fault lines and the rebels’ fragile unity. The ongoing conflict raises serious concerns about potential balkanisation, a fracturing of Myanmar, which could lead to a protracted civil war, increased war crimes, and spillover of humanitarian crises like refugees into neighbouring countries.
Resistance’s fragile unity
A complex political landscape sadly mars Myanmar's rich diversity, with over 135 distinct ethnicities. Each community takes pride in its cultural identity, and many seek greater autonomy. Several ethnic groups have organised themselves into over 25 armed groups. While some groups fiercely oppose the regime, others maintain fragile alliances or ceasefires. Their fight for self-rule stretches back to Myanmar's independence in 1948.
The ongoing conflict raises serious concerns about potential balkanisation, a fracturing of Myanmar, which could lead to a protracted civil war, increased war crimes, and spill over of humanitarian crises like refugees into neighbouring countries.
The struggle has been exacerbated by unequal representation within both the Military government and Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy (NLD), both of which are primarily dominated by the majority Bamar community. The country had been under a military dictatorship since its independence until its first election in 1990. Despite the NLD’s victory, the military refused to accept the result, claiming the poll was solely for a constitution drafting body. The 2010 election saw new electoral laws that effectively barred the main opposition, the NLD, from participating. This paved the way for the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party to win and form the government. However, the tides shifted in 2015 when NLD won a landslide victory and led a civilian government under a power-sharing arrangement with the military. However, this fragile democracy was shattered in February 2021 when the military staged another coup, rejecting the results of the 2020 election.
Since the 2021 coup, pro-democracy groups and EAOs have fought against the Junta. However, Operation 1027 has boosted the resistance movement, with EAOs vowing to fight until the Junta falls. Despite this apparent unity in fighting against the military, there is an underlying distrust and competition for power within the EAOs regarding local control and resource management.
Recently, multiple instances have shown internal friction. According to media reports, tensions flared in northern Shan State, an area controlled by the TNLA, where the MDNAA arrested around 30 TNLA troops and seized their weapons. Simultaneously, in Chin State, the Chin National Army (led by the Chinland Council) and Chinland Brotherhood (which opposes the Chinland Council), clashed in Matupi. While they are both fighting the Junta, this hasn’t stopped the contestation locally in the Chin State. These incidents highlight the challenges of forging a unified resistance.
Furthermore, the NUG — the government in exile — is not strong enough to bring all the ethnic groups together and faces challenges in uniting the diverse ethnic groups under its leadership. These include negotiating with the armed groups supporting the Junta, gaining the Muslim Rohingya population’s trust, and consolidating a unified resistance movement. Despite these obstacles, the NUG, alongside its armed wing, the People's Democratic Force, has cooperated with many EAOs to overthrow the military government. According to NUG Deputy Foreign Minister Moe Zaw Oo, NUG aims to form a Democratic Federal Union with representatives from all the ethnic communities, including the minorities, upon the Junta’s overthrow. Also, on the third anniversary of the 2021 Coup, the NUG declared its intention to abrogate the 2008 Constitution. They pledged to draft a new federal democratic constitution through consensus with all the relevant stakeholders.
However, the long-term power dynamics remain unclear. The desire of most EAOs for self-governance in their respective ethnic homeland potentially clashes with the NUG's vision for a federal democracy. Shared opposition to the Junta has forged a fragile unity amongst these disparate groups, but differing political priorities and the NUG's limited operational capacity on the ground remain a challenge. Furthermore, the decades of mistrust between the Bamar majority and the minority ethnic groups complicate the situation. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, and the potential fragmentation of the state is not just a theoretical possibility.
Junta's brutal crackdown
On the other hand, the Junta continues to target pro-democracy groups. Initially, their strategy managed to secure control of most townships and even compelled some EAOs to negotiate a temporary ceasefire. However, Operation 1027 significantly shifted this power dynamic. In a short period of eight months, the Junta has lost significant territory, but it remains determined.
They have employed airstrikes and artillery weaponry against rebel positions, desperately attempting to retake lost ground. On the one hand, the capacity of the junta soldiers has drastically reduced despite a new conscription law, and on the other, the Junta maintains a firm grip on crucial cities like Yangon, Naypyitaw, and Mandalay. The superior military might and entrenched defences make these cities incredibly difficult for resistance groups to capture. This also suggests that the Junta is not willing to accept its defeat despite setbacks elsewhere.
The airstrikes in EAO-controlled areas have resulted in over a thousand civilian casualties in the last six months. According to the UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights, aerial bombardments have increased fivefold since October 2023, and over 2.6 million people have been displaced internally and outside the country. Moreover, the junta has historically used the fear of potential fragmentation of Myanmar as a tool to secure legitimacy from the Bamar community in Myanmar. Following the 2021 coup, the junta signed a temporary unofficial ceasefire with the Buddhist Bamar-led- Arakan Army (AA) by offering them greater regional autonomy in Rakhine State. This followed brutal clashes between the two forces, which soon turned into a communal clash involving the AA and Muslim Rohingya. There are reports that the Junta is once again employing divisive tactics that incite communal conflict between different ethnic communities. For instance, there have been allegations of the Junta manipulating tensions in Rakhine State, potentially aiming to pit the Rohingya community against the Arakan Army. These developments exacerbate the already volatile situation.
No end to the stalemate
Myanmar is embroiled in its most intense conflict in decades, with resistance forces seizing control of numerous townships. Despite territorial losses, the Junta is clinging to power and will not accept its defeat. Moreover, the Junta retains a stronghold in Central Myanmar, and given its military superiority, overthrowing the Junta completely remains a formidable challenge. On the other hand, the NUG is struggling to gain ground-level control and full recognition as a legitimate leader from the EAOs. Adding to the complexities are the deep-rooted ethnic divisions, ethnic groups' diverse aspirations, and internal tensions among the EAOs regarding local control and resource management. Assessing the ground realities in Myanmar, the current situation is heading to a stalemate with no clear victor. This entrenched stalemate, with multiple sides locked in an unwinnable struggle, raises serious concerns about the potential balkanisation of the country.
A prolonged civil war in Myanmar would cause more humanitarian crises as refugees flee to the neighbouring countries, which are already hesitant to welcome the incoming masses. Besides, a prolonged war could further exacerbate the rise in illegal activities such as drug and arms trafficking, and cross-border scams targeting neighbouring nationals. Hence, this will create socio-economic imbalance and chaos in the region.
Although the NUG has pledged to draft a new constitution through consensus with relevant stakeholders, it remains uncertain whether this approach will provide sufficient incentives for the powerful EAOs to stay within the federal union. A unified and stable government is essential for tackling the growing humanitarian crisis, rebuilding the struggling economy, and combating transnational crime. However, the possibilities of such a government are increasingly unlikely.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Author biography
Ophelia Yumlembam is a Research Assistant at the Dept. of Political Science, University of Delhi (DU). She graduated with an M.A. in Political Science from the DU in 2023. She focuses on developments in Myanmar, Indo-Myanmar relations, India's Act East Policy, and drugs and arms trafficking in India's North Eastern Region. Image credit: Flickr/Allyson Neville-Morgan.